In early 11, the Beginning of Winter solar term arrives, and the Cold Clothes Festival is approaching. In China’s hog market, although cold-air activity has increased and many places in the north and south have “gone from autumn to winter overnight,” with temperatures plunging, this is conducive to improving demand. However, because pressure on supply has been high recently, the mismatch between production and sales is difficult to reverse, and the domestic hog market continues to decline.
In recent days, hog prices have hit a new low for the year, with prices in many regions in the north and south falling into the “3-yuan era.” Losses for pig farmers are deepening. With the arrival of the Beginning of Winter and the sharp drop in temperatures, how will pig prices develop from here? Can the hog market bottom out and rebound? An analysis follows:
According to data monitoring, as of 11 8, the national average ex-farm price of three-way crossbred hogs stood at 8.55 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day and 11.97 yuan/kg year on year; pig prices plunged 28.6%. The hog market has fallen to a new low in nearly 10 years. Since 2020, the standard quoted prices for the same period in 2020~2025 have been 29.63 yuan/kg, 17.03 yuan/kg, 25.72 yuan/kg, 14.96 yuan/kg, 16.77 yuan/kg, and 11.97 yuan/kg, respectively! At present, pig prices are down by as much as 71.1% compared with the same period in 2020!
By region, on 11 month 8 day, hog prices at the farm gate in the 28 key regions monitored nationwide ranged from 7.8 to 10.1 yuan per kilogram. The average farm-gate price of hogs was the same as in Jiangxi and Jiangxi Province, at 8.55 yuan per kilogram. In lower-priced regions, quotes in the Northwest market, including Shaanxi and Xinjiang, fell below 4 yuan per jin, with hog prices entering the “3-yuan era.” Xinjiang quoted 7.8 yuan per kilogram, and Shaanxi quoted 7.9 yuan per kilogram. In Guizhou, prices also fell to 8.05 yuan per kilogram, while hog prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning fell to 8.3 to 8.5 yuan per kilogram. In higher-priced regions, Guangdong was quoted at 10.1 yuan per kilogram, while Fujian prices stabilized at 9.7 yuan per kilogram. In the other traditionally high-priced markets, Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China fell to 8.55 to 8.6 yuan, Sichuan and Chongqing were quoted at 8.3 to 8.4 yuan, and Shandong was quoted at 8.6 yuan and Henan at 8.45 yuan per kilogram…
Thus, on 11 month 8 day, the hog market continued its downward slide, with prices hitting a new low for the year. Hog quotes reached their lowest level in nearly 10 years. In particular, prices were down 28.6% compared with the same period in 2025 year, as the market saw a decline that was “beyond expectations.”
This round of hog-price declines was mainly driven by a mismatch between supply and demand, with a severe imbalance between production and sales.
On the supply side, consumer demand has not been strong during the peak season. Earlier, major group pig producers were slow to bring hogs to market, increasing the pressure from delayed capacity. This month, planned marketings by large-scale pig producers have increased to 1519.67 ten thousand head. Compared with the daily average, this is a month-on-month increase of nearly 6%, and marketings by large-scale producers are relatively high. On the independent-producer side, including smallholders and secondary fattening operations, recent weak piglet prices and a significant rise in the average weight of hogs marketed have left the market with ample supplies of medium and large hogs. The average marketing weight rose to 125.22 kilograms this week. As cold-air activity increases and temperatures fall in many areas, disease outbreaks at pig farms have become frequent. Smallholder farms in many areas are increasingly panicked and selling off their hogs, further reinforcing the oversupply.
On the demand side, as the weather cools, seasonal demand is recovering gradually, and slaughterhouse operating rates have risen. The operating rate among sampled slaughterhouses has increased to around nearly 31.3%! Unfortunately, the rising average weight of hogs marketed has further strengthened pork supply, and frozen pork is being released onto the market in succession. This has dampened enthusiasm for buying and selling fresh pork and, at the same time, held back the increase in slaughterhouse operating rates, limiting underlying market demand for hogs.
Based on this analysis, domestic hog prices have continued to adjust downward amid supply-demand imbalance. However, the quoted price for standard-weight hogs has now fallen to 8.55 yuan per kilogram, setting a new annual low. The Start of Winter solar term has arrived, temperatures are gradually falling, and the peak season for curing meat in southern China is approaching. Market sentiment may gradually improve, and reluctance to sell hogs at lower prices may strengthen. Major group pig producers may attempt to raise their marketing prices in the period ahead.