Recently, prices for new-season corn in Northeast China have rebounded slightly, mainly because grassroots farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in insufficient supply. A survey by SunSirs shows that although yields per unit area have fallen due to weather conditions, overall production in Northeast China has increased slightly. Rising planting costs and shrinking returns have made farmers strongly reluctant to sell, while traders have also become more cautious. As grain sales progress slowly, farmers may sell in a concentrated wave before the Spring Festival, at which point market prices may undergo a seasonal correction.
Northeast new-season corn prices rebounded slightly at the beginning of 11
Due to the completion of machine-harvested grain in farms in eastern and northern Heilongjiang, the pace of standing corn coming to market from local farmers has been slow. At the end of 10 and the beginning of 11, corn prices in the Northeast production region staged a rebound. Data monitored by SunSirs show that the average corn price in the Northeast market on 11 2 was 2120 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton, or 1.31%, from 10 28. Among them, prices for new-season corn in eastern Heilongjiang and Liaoning rose by 20-40 yuan/ton, while purchase prices at the northern ports rose by 35-40 yuan/ton. Based on price trends in recent years, from the end of 10 to mid-11, there is a gap of about 15 days between machine-harvested grain and standing corn in the Northeast. Corn prices in the region stage a slight rebound during this period, broadly consistent with SunSirs' on-site research.
Market research conclusion one: Corn yields in the surveyed market declined, while total output in the Northeast production area increased slightly year over year.
From 10 month 26-29, the Zhuochuang Information research team visited a total of 10 businesses in Qiqihar, Daqing, Suihua, and Harbin, including trading businesses, downstream processing businesses, and large-scale growers. The findings show that new-season corn yields in the surveyed markets all declined to varying degrees, mainly due to weather conditions such as rainfall and drought, with decreases ranging from 5%-40%. Only yields in Shuangcheng, Harbin, were unchanged year on year. Given that some areas of Heilongjiang have switched from soybeans, potatoes, and other crops to corn, and that some areas of Inner Mongolia have converted forest land back to farmland, most respondents expect total new-season corn output in the Northeast production region to still increase year on year. Based on yield declines in many areas, a small number of respondents expect total output in the Northeast production region to be below the same period last year, but with a limited decline, or even to remain basically unchanged. Zhuochuang Information's comprehensive analysis indicates that this year corn yields vary considerably across the Northeast production region, with a relatively notable decline in Liaoning; total output is expected to increase slightly year on year, by around 200 ten thousand tonnes.
Market research finding two: Farmers’ planting returns have fallen significantly, and reluctance to sell is widespread
As the total cost of planting corn this spring has risen while the current price of wet corn is low, farmers’ returns have shrunk considerably. According to research, the average land rent in the Northeast producing regions for the 2026/27 season was 940 yuan per mu, up 240 yuan per mu year on year. Costs such as fertilizer and machinery also increased, bringing estimated total planting costs to 1425 yuan per mu. The average yield per mu in the markets surveyed was 1720 jin. At a selling price of 0.75 yuan per jin for wet corn with a moisture content of 30%, large-scale growers would lose 135 yuan per mu (excluding subsidies). Meanwhile, returns for farmers planting on their own land have fallen considerably, so farmers at the grassroots level are reluctant to sell, and market supply is limited. Trading companies interviewed said that, around the same time last year, corn purchasing had been underway for about 15 days, with inventories exceeding ten thousand tons. For trading companies, low-priced wet corn is hard to procure, high-priced dry corn is hard to sell, and overall costs, including drying costs, have risen. Prices in downstream markets or destination regions are lower than their costs, and drying tower operating rates in many areas are markedly below those of the same period last year.
Market Research Conclusion Three: Trade Becomes More Cautious, and Profitability Becomes the Top Priority
Due to the continued decline in corn prices during the second and third quarters of this year, some grain holders in Northeast China incurred losses when selling their stocks, and some old grain was carried over involuntarily. Overall profits in the trading sector were unsatisfactory. According to research findings, in the 2025/26 season, Northeast China grain traders could earn profits of between 30-80 yuan per ton by storing grain early in the season, while maximum losses later in the season reached 200 yuan per ton. Since the new-season corn came onto the market, most grain trading companies in Northeast China have become cautious. Much of the wet corn has gone to local deep-processing enterprises, while some companies have locked in contracts in advance to ensure cash flow. As prices for new-season corn in North China are low, Northeast China grain is difficult to sell outside the region, and new-season corn in Northeast China is mainly traded within the region.
Before the Spring Festival, grassroots farmers may sell grain in a concentrated manner, and market prices will undergo a seasonal correction.
According to research, trading companies in western Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other areas mostly plan to build stocks in batches at lower price levels during the concentrated selling period for grassroots farmers, in order to control costs. Currently, the grassroots selling progress in some parts of Liaoning is approaching 5 tenths, while in Jilin and western Heilongjiang it is below 0.5 tenths. Overall progress is slower than at the same time last year, and market supply pressure is expected to shift to a later period. Among respondents, the more neutral view is that before the Spring Festival, corn prices in western Heilongjiang will fall by 30-50 yuan/ton compared with the end of month 10, while the more pessimistic view is that the decline could reach 100 yuan/ton. Going forward, attention should be paid to the effects of weather on grassroots farmers’ willingness to sell grain and downstream deep-processing enterprises’ willingness to purchase.