Prices are falling, falling—the pig market “keeps sliding,” with prices for the “second senior brother” once again breaking below the year’s low. The live hog market has hit a new low in nearly 10 years! Farmers are caught in a prolonged “slow bleed.” Market fundamentals remain weak, and the mismatch between production and sales is hard to ease. Multiple pressures are also erupting at once, and the live hog market may continue to adjust downward. So, what is the “floor” for pig prices in 11? Here is a detailed analysis:
According to cited data monitoring, on 11 7, domesticthree-way crossbredlean-type standard hogs had an average ex-farm price of 8.61 yuan/kg, down 1.3 mao/kg from the previous day. Pig prices fell below the low of 8.63 yuan/kg recorded during 4 of 2026, setting a low for the year. Prices have performed even worse during the traditional peak season for seasonal demand, with production and sales facing multiple pressures! In particular, compared with the start of the “Golden September” period, pig prices have fallen by a cumulative 22.36%, and are down nearly 28% year on year. Prices are showing a “breakdown” and falling trend!
According to analysis of institutional monitoring data, at present, hog prices are under pressure across the 7 northern and southern production regions monitored nationwide and the 28 monitorable areas. The market continues to see widespread declines, with price cuts by slaughterhouses in many areas increasing to 0.1~0.25 yuan/kg. There is no significant regional price differential, and the combined effects of production and sales are driving an excessively rational decline in the market!
In northern China, markets in the Northeast, North China, and Northwest are currently seeing quotes of 8 yuan/kg in Xinjiang and 8.05 yuan/kg in Shaanxi, at relatively low levels. In Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanxi, Hebei, and other areas, mainstream quotes for standard hogs have fallen to 8.3~8.7 yuan/kg, and hog prices have broadly fallen below 4.5 yuan/jin. In southern markets, including Southwest, South China, East China, and Central China, Guangdong has the highest quote at 10.2 yuan/kg, followed by Fujian at 9.7 yuan/kg. Quotes in most other areas have fallen to 8.15~8.95 yuan/kg; quotes are 8.5 yuan in Sichuan and Chongqing, have fallen to 8.55~8.6 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and are 8.65 yuan in Shandong and 8.45 yuan/kg in Henan!
Based on this analysis, on 11 month 7, hog prices in the northern and southern markets came under pressure and fell. The market was sluggish, and sentiment among producers was pessimistic, with bearish and stability-oriented views prevailing. The market may briefly remain weak as it seeks a bottom!
In terms of demand, yesterday, in major domestic consumer cities, the quoted price of dressed pork in Beijing fell by 0.1~0.3 yuan, with ordinary buying and selling activity in the wholesale market. The mainstream quoted price of dressed pork in Shanghai was 11.3 yuan/kg. Supply capacity increased, while demand remained lackluster! At present, the fundamentals of pork supply are relatively loose, with capacity under pressure from oversupply!
On the one hand, this week’s institutional survey found that the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter rose to 125.22 kg, while the average slaughter weight of hogs increased to 94.65 kg. This further strengthened pork supply capacity and raised the amount of pork supplied per market hog!
On the other hand, frozen pork inventories stood at 31.23%, down 0.37 percentage points from the previous week. Recently, shipments of frozen pork have increased, further boosting pork supply capacity!
On the demand side, because of the substitution of household demand and changes in dietary patterns, growth in pork demand has been limited. With frozen pork shipments increasing and the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter rising, slaughterhouse orders have seen only limited growth, and the operating rate has been difficult to raise. The operating rate at sampled slaughterhouses is around 31.28%, indicating insufficient consumer demand!
In terms of supply, yesterday, major producing regions across the country saw increased shipments from large-scale hog companies in East China, Central China, and Northwest China, while shipments from Southwest China companies declined slightly! However, due to seasonal changes and fluctuating temperatures, hogs being fattenedPig diseasecases have increased. Both independent producers and corporate hog farms are highly apprehensive, and the willingness to ship is strong. With the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter increasing, the market’s inventory of heavier hogs has improved. In addition, in 11 month, the planned daily shipments of large-scale hog companies increased sharply month over month. Producers face the risk of a cash-flow crisis, and their willingness to ship is strong, so supply pressure remains high!
Based on this analysis, with both supply and demand increasing, supply pressure is stronger than the increase in demand. The mismatch between production and sales persists, and domestic hog prices are fluctuating downward overall! Currently, quoted prices for standard hogs have hit a new annual low. The market may briefly continue to fall, but as demand gradually improves at the margin after the Beginning of Winter and temperatures drop further, consumption may provide stronger support. Hog prices may see a “bottoming-out recovery.” Going forward, watch for changes in the pace of market buying and selling. In my view, in 11 month, the floor for hog prices may hover around 8.1~8.3 yuan/kg, with limited room for further declines!
According to cited data monitoring, on 11 7, domesticthree-way crossbredlean-type standard hogs had an average ex-farm price of 8.61 yuan/kg, down 1.3 mao/kg from the previous day. Pig prices fell below the low of 8.63 yuan/kg recorded during 4 of 2026, setting a low for the year. Prices have performed even worse during the traditional peak season for seasonal demand, with production and sales facing multiple pressures! In particular, compared with the start of the “Golden September” period, pig prices have fallen by a cumulative 22.36%, and are down nearly 28% year on year. Prices are showing a “breakdown” and falling trend!
According to analysis of institutional monitoring data, at present, hog prices are under pressure across the 7 northern and southern production regions monitored nationwide and the 28 monitorable areas. The market continues to see widespread declines, with price cuts by slaughterhouses in many areas increasing to 0.1~0.25 yuan/kg. There is no significant regional price differential, and the combined effects of production and sales are driving an excessively rational decline in the market!
In northern China, markets in the Northeast, North China, and Northwest are currently seeing quotes of 8 yuan/kg in Xinjiang and 8.05 yuan/kg in Shaanxi, at relatively low levels. In Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanxi, Hebei, and other areas, mainstream quotes for standard hogs have fallen to 8.3~8.7 yuan/kg, and hog prices have broadly fallen below 4.5 yuan/jin. In southern markets, including Southwest, South China, East China, and Central China, Guangdong has the highest quote at 10.2 yuan/kg, followed by Fujian at 9.7 yuan/kg. Quotes in most other areas have fallen to 8.15~8.95 yuan/kg; quotes are 8.5 yuan in Sichuan and Chongqing, have fallen to 8.55~8.6 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and are 8.65 yuan in Shandong and 8.45 yuan/kg in Henan!
Based on this analysis, on 11 month 7, hog prices in the northern and southern markets came under pressure and fell. The market was sluggish, and sentiment among producers was pessimistic, with bearish and stability-oriented views prevailing. The market may briefly remain weak as it seeks a bottom!
In terms of demand, yesterday, in major domestic consumer cities, the quoted price of dressed pork in Beijing fell by 0.1~0.3 yuan, with ordinary buying and selling activity in the wholesale market. The mainstream quoted price of dressed pork in Shanghai was 11.3 yuan/kg. Supply capacity increased, while demand remained lackluster! At present, the fundamentals of pork supply are relatively loose, with capacity under pressure from oversupply!
On the one hand, this week’s institutional survey found that the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter rose to 125.22 kg, while the average slaughter weight of hogs increased to 94.65 kg. This further strengthened pork supply capacity and raised the amount of pork supplied per market hog!
On the other hand, frozen pork inventories stood at 31.23%, down 0.37 percentage points from the previous week. Recently, shipments of frozen pork have increased, further boosting pork supply capacity!
On the demand side, because of the substitution of household demand and changes in dietary patterns, growth in pork demand has been limited. With frozen pork shipments increasing and the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter rising, slaughterhouse orders have seen only limited growth, and the operating rate has been difficult to raise. The operating rate at sampled slaughterhouses is around 31.28%, indicating insufficient consumer demand!
In terms of supply, yesterday, major producing regions across the country saw increased shipments from large-scale hog companies in East China, Central China, and Northwest China, while shipments from Southwest China companies declined slightly! However, due to seasonal changes and fluctuating temperatures, hogs being fattenedPig diseasecases have increased. Both independent producers and corporate hog farms are highly apprehensive, and the willingness to ship is strong. With the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter increasing, the market’s inventory of heavier hogs has improved. In addition, in 11 month, the planned daily shipments of large-scale hog companies increased sharply month over month. Producers face the risk of a cash-flow crisis, and their willingness to ship is strong, so supply pressure remains high!
Based on this analysis, with both supply and demand increasing, supply pressure is stronger than the increase in demand. The mismatch between production and sales persists, and domestic hog prices are fluctuating downward overall! Currently, quoted prices for standard hogs have hit a new annual low. The market may briefly continue to fall, but as demand gradually improves at the margin after the Beginning of Winter and temperatures drop further, consumption may provide stronger support. Hog prices may see a “bottoming-out recovery.” Going forward, watch for changes in the pace of market buying and selling. In my view, in 11 month, the floor for hog prices may hover around 8.1~8.3 yuan/kg, with limited room for further declines!