Recently, Wens Foodstuff Group disclosed its sales of live hogs and broiler chickens for 2026/10. Live hog sales in 10 were up month on month for the 4th consecutive month. Cumulative sales were approximately 3000 ten thousand head, up 4.7% year on year. Live hog prices continued to fall in 5 and had declined year on year for 19 consecutive months. Details are as follows:
Live hog business
In 2026/10, Wens sold 325.72 ten thousand live hogs (including live hogs and fresh products), up 9.00% month on month, marking 4 consecutive months of month-on-month growth and the highest level in nearly 7 months, but down 16.33% year on year and marking 6 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. Revenue was 41.02 hundred million yuan, up 1.13% month on month, marking 4 consecutive months of month-on-month growth and the highest level in nearly 7 months, but down 18.74% year on year and marking 17 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. The average selling price of live hogs was 9.78 yuan/kg, down 9.02% month on month, marking 2 consecutive months of decline and the lowest price in nearly 4 months; it was down 15.47% year on year, marking 19 consecutive months of year-on-year decline.
From 2026 to 1-10, the company sold a total of 2976.89 ten thousand hogs, up 4.67% year on year; revenue from hog sales totaled 394.96 hundred million yuan, down 22.54% year on year.
Calculations show that the average sales weight of hogs in 2025 10 was 128.77 kilograms per head, up 1.99% month on month, marking the 3th consecutive monthly increase, and up 1.77% year on year, marking the 2th consecutive annual increase. This was the highest average weight in nearly 7 months.
Wens Foodstuff Group stated that, excluding the impact of reversals of losses from declines in hog prices, the company's comprehensive hog farming cost was 5.8 yuan per jin in 9, and 6.0 yuan per jin in the third quarter.
In the third quarter of 2026, the company recorded a loss of approximately 9 hundred million yuan in its pig business. In the first three quarters, the pig business incurred a loss of approximately 49 hundred million yuan due to weak market conditions (including approximately 1 hundred million yuan in provisions for declines in hog prices, with an actual operating loss of approximately 48 hundred million yuan).
Wens Foodstuff Group has set medium- and long-term cost-reduction targets and broken them down into specific measures: improvements in breeding pigs are expected to contribute cost savings of about 0.2 yuan/jin; improvements in marketable rate, reductions in feed-to-meat ratio, and lower medication costs are expected to contribute a combined 0.4 yuan/jin; model iteration and greater efficiency through digital intelligence are expected to contribute 0.25 yuan/jin; centralized procurement, lean management, and other measures are expected to contribute 0.15 yuan/jin.
A pilot smart pig-farming factory has successfully implemented a new operating model. The direct cost for 9 (piglet cost + medication cost + contract rearing fee + manufacturing expenses), settled in 4.97 yuan/jin, was 0.44 yuan/jin lower than the average direct cost of the company's pig-farming business during the same period.
In 9, the company's comprehensive cost of raising market hogs fell to 5.8 yuan/jin. Metrics at some of the best-performing integrated companies: best cost of 5.15 yuan/jin, best feed-to-meat ratio of 2.34, best marketable rate of 96%, best PSY of over 35 head, best piglet cost below 200 yuan/head, and best average daily gain of over 800 grams.
Regarding the current hog cycle and hog price trends in 2027, Wens Foodstuff Group said that capacity clearance in this cycle has been more thorough. The industry had generally expected hog prices to rebound in the fourth quarter, but they did not; instead, prices repeatedly tested new lows. Hog prices have now fallen below 4.6 yuan/jin, exceeding the expectations of all parties in the industry. Some farming companies that had been hoping for the best and were under significant financial pressure will face survival challenges and accelerate their exit.
Expectations for hog prices next year are more optimistic. Previously, the industry expected that even if hog prices rebounded in the fourth quarter, prices next year would still be in the range of 6.5-7 yuan per jin. It is now expected that capacity reduction will be more thorough, and hog prices next year may perform better than previously expected.
Hog prices are difficult to predict precisely. In the past, various industry data agencies and futures markets failed to accurately forecast the trend in hog prices during this cycle. The specific peak cannot be precisely estimated, but the view that capacity reduction will be more thorough may support more optimistic expectations for next year.