US meat export trade: pork holds up better than beef
USDA reported US weekly pork export net sales of 37,300 tons were down 12% for the week but 5% above the four-week average. Mexico accounted for roughly 45% of sales and 47% of shipments, reinforcing its importance across multiple US agricultural markets.
US beef export sales of 11,000 tons were unchanged from the previous week but 29% below the four-week average. China recorded a net reduction of 600 tons, while South Korea and Japan remained the leading buyers. Beef shipments improved to 13,400 tons, providing a better immediate movement signal than the bookings suggested.
The next test is whether soybean shipments stay elevated, corn maintains its booking pace and stronger meal orders turn into loadings.
Mexican cattle prices fall sharply as buyers lower bids
US/Mexico border quotations drop $15–$20 as broader cattle market weakness reaches fresh sales, while screwworm cases approach 100
Prices for Mexican cattle entering the US fell sharply Tuesday, signaling that buyers are adjusting bids to the weaker cattle market even as cross-border shipments continue. According to AMS figures, cattle crossing at Douglas, Arizona, and Santa Teresa, New Mexico, sold $15–$20 lower than a week earlier, with trade and demand described as moderate.
Tuesday’s imports totaled 2,750 head: 1,350 at Douglas, 200 at Columbus, New Mexico, and 1,200 at Santa Teresa.
The return of reportable sales makes the price decline especially significant. Previously contracted cattle dominated the preceding two reporting days, leaving insufficient current-market transactions to establish quotations. Monday’s AMS narrative already pointed to a softer undertone. Tuesday’s sales therefore provide a clearer indication of what buyers will pay under current conditions.
The weekly comparison should not be interpreted as a decline that occurred entirely Tuesday. With fresh price discovery limited during the preceding sessions, the new quotations may reflect several days of accumulated market weakness.
Lower expected selling prices give feedlots a reason to reduce replacement cattle bids. When projected finished-cattle revenue falls, feeders must either pay less for incoming animals or accept narrower prospective margins. Broader market pressure continued Tuesday: November feeder cattle futures fell $3.90 per hundredweight, while December live cattle declined $1.55,
Moderate demand nevertheless suggests buyers remain active at lower prices. The report supports a conclusion that cattle are being repriced; it does not, by itself, establish that demand has collapsed or that increased Mexican imports caused the broader selloff.
The reopening of additional crossings could gradually increase competition for feedlot placements. Columbus reopened Oct. 26, joining Douglas and Santa Teresa. Nogales remains scheduled for Nov. 30, conditional on animal-health conditions and inspection readiness. More available crossings could improve access to Mexican feeder cattle, although actual shipments will depend on eligible supplies, processing capacity and buyer interest. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Screwworm adds uncertainty to that supply outlook. Texas Public Radio, citing updated USDA data, reported 99 confirmed US animal infestations, including 42 active cases and 57 inactive cases. Of the total, 98 involved domestic animals and one involved wildlife. Five detections of wild screwworm flies are tracked separately. Those figures heighten attention to the safeguards underpinning continued border trade, but they do not establish that imported cattle caused the US cases. See next item for details.
For cattle producers, the next important signal is whether additional negotiated sales confirm Tuesday’s lower price levels. For feedlots, cheaper replacement cattle may reduce purchase costs, but that benefit can be offset if expected finished-cattle values continue falling.
New World Screwworm cases climb to 113 as confirmations accelerate
APHIS reports additional infections across three states and a second wildlife case, while 55 domestic-animal cases remain active
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reports that confirmed New World screwworm (NWS) cases have reached 113, including 111 in domestic animals and two in wildlife or feral animals.
The latest wildlife case, confirmed Nov. 4 in an elk in Jeff Davis County, Texas, is already classified as inactive. Other newly reported infections include a horse in Greenlee County, Arizona; a horse in Eddy County and cattle in Otero County, New Mexico; and cattle in Starr County, Texas.
November’s domestic-animal case count has climbed to 24, with one classified as inactive. October’s total remains at 36, including four inactive cases. Across all 111 domestic-animal cases, 55 remain active.
The accelerating pace of confirmations raises fresh concerns about containment efforts. October and November together account for 60 domestic-animal cases, with November already reaching two-thirds of October’s total just four days into the month. The information provided does not explain the sharp increase or establish whether it reflects wider spread, intensified surveillance or delays in confirming earlier infections.
Brazil’s EU meat exports surge 170%, but import curbs cloud outlook
Early Mercosur trade gains highlight Brazil’s export strength, while sanitary restrictions complicate further growth and limit claims about the deal’s impact
Brazil’s meat exports to the European Union rose 170% by volume during May–September, but the increase comes with an important qualification: EU restrictions imposed in September now constrain access for key Brazilian animal products. The surge coincided with the first five months of provisional application of the EU/Mercosur trade agreement.
Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said meat shipments increased from 101,000 metric tons to 272,000 MT, while export revenue rose 103.5%. Overall Brazilian agricultural exports to the EU reached $12.2 billion, up 14.8%, with volume increasing 8.1% to 17.74 million MT. The soybean complex remained the largest category, generating $4.19 billion, up 34.2%. Brazil’s agricultural trade surplus with the bloc widened 17% to $10.54 billion.
The agreement, provisionally applied since May 1, expands preferential market access gradually. Its eventual quotas include 99,000 MT of beef at a 7.5% tariff and 180,000 MT of duty-free poultry, shared across the participating Mercosur countries. These are preferential-access quotas, not ceilings on all meat imports from the bloc.
The immediate obstacle is regulatory compliance. The EU suspended affected Brazilian animal-product imports beginning Sept. 3 over insufficient guarantees concerning antimicrobial use. A subsequent positive audit raised expectations that poultry and honey shipments could resume, but a timetable for beef’s return remains unconfirmed. Lower tariffs do not override EU sanitary requirements.
Perspective: The export surge is significant, but it does not establish that Mercosur caused the entire increase. The figures compare total shipments with a year earlier; they do not isolate trade using the new preferences. Product mix, demand, pricing and shipment timing could also explain part of the gain. Moreover, the reporting period largely precedes the September restrictions, making it a weak guide to current shipment momentum.
The revenue-volume gap also merits attention. The reported growth rates imply an approximately 25% decline in average meat export revenue per ton. That could reflect a shift toward cheaper products or cuts, lower prices, or both; it does not establish that comparable beef prices fell 25%.
For European livestock producers, the surge could intensify pressure for import monitoring and safeguards, although the combined meat total cannot establish the impact on individual beef or poultry markets. For Brazil, the next test is whether exporters can restore and sustain regulatory approval. The agreement improves commercial opportunity, but compliance will determine how much of that opportunity becomes durable trade.
Arizona’s first Screwworm case raises new concerns for livestock trade
Detection in a Cochise County ranch dog triggers movement controls and intensifies scrutiny of the pest’s spread across the Southwest
USDA confirmed Arizona’s first New World screwworm (NWS) case Oct. 28 in a dog in Cochise County, prompting animal movement controls, expanded surveillance and sterile-fly releases. The agency’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa, confirmed the infestation, and federal officials are coordinating the response with the Arizona Department of Agriculture.
The dog lives on a ranch and is receiving treatment, with state officials expecting it to survive, according to KJZZ. State Veterinarian Ryan Wolker said other livestock on the property would be evaluated. The dog reportedly has no known history of movement to other states or counties—a detail that raises concern about exposure locally, although the source of the infestation remains under investigation.
Arizona becomes the third state with detections in the current outbreak, joining Texas and New Mexico. Reuters reported that USDA’s tally reached 71 cases since June, including 18 active cases, as of Wednesday. The widening geographic footprint increases the challenge of containing the pest while restoring livestock commerce. Reuters
Federal and state officials are establishing a 20-kilometer, or roughly 12.4-mile, infested zone around the detection, with animal movement controls, additional trapping and surveillance, and outreach to animal owners and veterinarians. Screwworm larvae feed on living tissue, creating wounds that can worsen rapidly without treatment. USDA urges owners to inspect animals daily and immediately report suspicious wounds or maggots to a veterinarian or animal health official. aphis.usda.gov
The agricultural significance extends beyond the affected dog. A case on a working ranch shows why surveillance must cover pets as well as livestock. The reported absence of travel makes the investigation particularly consequential: evidence of additional infestations nearby would strengthen concerns about local fly activity. A single detection, however, does not establish how widespread that activity may be or prove that the parasite arrived through imported cattle.
KJZZ reported that approximately 1 million sterile flies had been released in the Cochise County area following the detection. Those releases are intended to interrupt reproduction, while inspections help identify infested animals before the pest spreads further. The effectiveness of that combined response will matter more than the initial case count alone. kjzz.org
Border trade is the immediate market uncertainty. Reuters reported that livestock imports have resumed at three ports in Arizona and New Mexico, with Nogales scheduled to reopen Nov. 30 if conditions permit safe trade. USDA’s Arizona case announcement did not announce a new border-wide suspension. Reuters
For cattle markets, the principal risk is that further detections could slow additional reopenings, expand movement restrictions or increase inspection and handling costs. Those outcomes could constrain feeder-cattle availability for affected buyers. The dog’s diagnosis alone does not establish a measurable loss of cattle supplies or justify a specific beef-price forecast.
The next indicators to watch are the ranch investigation, nearby animal inspections, fly-trapping results and any changes to USDA’s import protocols. Successful containment would help preserve the trade recovery; additional cases would make that recovery more uncertain.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (10/30) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.3575. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.3145 (+0.0345). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7250 and 40# blocks at $1.5975. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7230 (+0.0190) and blocks $1.7095 (-0.0290). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $2.1125. The weekly average for Grade A is $2.0720 (-0.0830). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.8400. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.8310 (-0.0325).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders report steady domestic butter demand in the East and Central regions, while demand for the West region is described as somewhat stronger. Export demand varies from steady to strong. Although some tighter cream availability is noted, spot loads are available for butter manufacturers to bring in for their churns. Demand from Class II and III dairy commodity manufacturers are providing some support to cream multiples in parts of the country. Butter production schedules are busy as micro-fixing is becoming more seasonally active. Some butter makers indicate supplies for micro-fixing are more accessible than typical for the last week of October this year. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Nationally, cheese market conditions remain generally steady across all regions. In the East, production is steady, with stable retail and food service demand. Excess bulk inventories are moving into Midwest markets, easing reliance on export channels. In the Central region, milk supplies are steady to increasing as cooler weather improves cow comfort and boosts components. Spot Class III milk is available at $0.50-under to $3.00 over Class. Cheese plants are maintaining active production schedules, especially for barrels and curds, supported by firm retail demand and strong spot load purchasing interest. In the West, balanced milk supplies and mixed cream availability support steady cheese production. Stronger retail promotions and moderate to strong international demand are helping sustain market activity. Overall, the market tone is steady, with spot cheese prices recovering from recent lows.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk supplies vary across the country this week. Supplies in the East are tight. Central supplies are tight in the Upper Midwest but increase further south. Supplies West are heavy in California and steady in the Pacific Northwest. Eastern Class I ultrafiltered plant demand remains strong, Central Class I demand is steady, and West eggnog demand is increasing. Cream availability varies across the country. Spot cream is available in the East. Central spot cream purchases are increasing, with cream continuing to move into Mexico. West cream availability varies across the region. Eastern condensed skim supplies remain tight, with solid demand. West condensed skim demand is higher and availability is light. Cream multiples for All Classes: East 1.28-1.45, Central 1.20 1.45, West 1.12-1.21.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In the Central and East regions, low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) is seeing a sharp decrease at the top of the price range this week, while the bottom of the range is unchanged. The mostly series declined at both ends. In the West, low/medium heat NDM prices declined at the top of the range and held steady at the bottom. The mostly series narrowed and moved lower at both ends. Buttermilk powder prices increased at both ends of the range in the Central and East regions. In the West, prices held steady at the top of the range this week and increased at the bottom, while the mostly series rose slightly at both ends. Dry whey prices remained unchanged in the East region. In the Central region, dry whey prices remained unchanged, while the mostly series increased slightly at the bottom. In the West, the dry whey price range moved higher at the top end. The top of the mostly series held steady, while the bottom increased by three cents. Dry whole milk prices moved lower at both ends of the range this week. Whey protein concentrate (WPC) 34% prices moved lower at the bottom of the range and held steady at the top, while the mostly series increased at both ends. WPC 80% is trading in the $9 to $10 range, and whey protein isolate (WPI) prices range from $13 to $14. Lactose prices decreased slightly at the bottom of the range, while the top of the range and the mostly series remained unchanged. There was no change in the acid casein price range this week, and rennet casein prices were also unchanged.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The NOP Organic Insider from October 27th noted the National Organic Standards Board (NOSB) is seeking nominations to fill three vacant spots, with terms beginning in January 2027. The public is welcome to make comments on the Federal Register publication from September 25th titled National Organic Program: Notice of Intent to Extend and Revise a Previously Approved Information Collection (2027) through November 24, 2026. Federal Milk Market Order 1, in the Northeast, reports utilization of types of organic milk by regulated plants. During September 2026, organic whole milk utilization totaled 16.25 million pounds, down from 21.61 million pounds the previous year.