Sow inventories declined at an accelerated pace in 10, continuing to support prices next year. Fattening pig inventories still edged up, and supply pressure in 11 remains significant.
Overall, the reduction in breeding sow capacity in 10 was the result of three converging forces: “driven by heavy losses + policy constraints + disease disruptions.” Large-scale farms made orderly reductions within the policy framework, while small and medium-sized farms accelerated their exits under the combined pressure of losses and disease. The industry’s capacity structure is undergoing a round of involuntary but necessary restructuring.
As 11 begins, pig prices may remain weak, with little prospect of any substantial improvement in the industry’s severe losses. The difficulty of controlling pig diseases in northern regions during winter remains considerable, and the pressure on small and medium-sized farms to reduce capacity has not yet fully abated. At the policy level, year-end assessments of production cuts by leading companies have also begun. Domestic breeding sow inventories are expected to continue declining in 11, and the month-on-month decrease among smallholders may remain greater than that at large-scale farms. From the perspective of cycle transmission, the cumulative effect of current capacity reductions will lay the groundwork for a marginal tightening of hog supply in the second half of 2026. However, given continued improvements in production efficiency at large-scale farms and the still ample overall inventory base, a price turning point will depend on capacity reductions being further realized over time .