The Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission recently released monitoring data on hogs for the 10 month, week 4. The data show that hog and feeder pig prices are currently falling across the board, the hog-to-grain price ratio remains low, and pressure from losses on the breeding side is increasing further, highlighting signs that the industry is bottoming out.

 

 

Specifically, hog prices fell in all 30 monitored provinces nationwide during the week. The current average hog price has fallen to 10.41 yuan/kg, with the weekly decline widening to 2.8%, and prices have remained on a downward trend for 8 consecutive weeks. Feeder pig prices also declined over the same period: prices fell in all 29 monitored provinces nationwide, and the average feeder pig price dropped to 17.88 yuan/kg, a level near the historic low of recent years. Meanwhile, the latest weekly hog-to-grain price ratio was 4.22. The average loss per hog for farms purchasing feeder pigs for finishing was nearly 400 yuan, putting continued pressure on pig farms' cash flow.

 

 

On the one hand, hogs are difficult to sell at a good price; on the other, feed costs remain rigid. With pressure from both sides, the prospect of losses for producers is easy to imagine. Many farmers are now caught in a dilemma: holding hogs back in the hope of higher prices means bearing continuously rising feed costs and disease risks, while panic selling means facing real losses. The sluggish piglet market also indicates that the industry’s proactive reduction of production capacity is progressing slowly. With no clear signs of a market turnaround, most industry participants are choosing to wait and see, afraid to expand production rashly.

 

 

Notably, two major industry organizations recently released their respective sample companies’ plans for hog marketings in 11. According to Mysteel, sample companies completed only 98.25% of their hog marketing plans for 10. Some hogs were deferred to 11, and planned hog marketings for 11 increased by 2.56% from actual marketings in 10. Data from Yongyi also show that sample companies completed only 97.97% of their hog marketing plans for 10, while planned hog marketings for 11 increased by 2.62% from actual marketings in 10.

 

Hog marketing plans for 11 continue to increase, and pressure on hog prices remains high in the short term.