At the beginning of 11, cold air activity is frequent, and the Start of Winter solar term is approaching, marking the transition from autumn to winter. In China’s livestock and poultry farming sector, pig finishing is increasingly troubled by swine diseases. In particular, large temperature fluctuations have led to more stress among pigs on farms. In some production areas, there are reports of “suspected small-scale African swine fever,” adding to market anxiety. Meanwhile, domestic hog supply and demand currently lack support, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to improve. In the short term, the decline in hog prices seems “endless,” with the market continuing to bottom out. Farming losses are deepening, and the market is mired in a “quagmire”!
According to institutional monitoring, on 2026/11/5, the national average price for standard lean hogs was 8.86 yuan/kg (4.43 yuan/jin), down 0.08 yuan from the previous day. Markets across the north and south continued to show a broadly “in the red” trend, with only Hainan seeing slightly stronger quotes. Mainstream live hog quotes fell below 9 yuan/kg, and hog prices were down nearly 26.7% year over year. In particular, compared with the live hog quote of 11.09 yuan/kg at the beginning of September, the “Golden September,” prices have retreated from their peak during the traditional peak consumption season, with a cumulative drop of 20.1%. Hog prices have fallen back to “pre-Liberation” levels, and the market is showing an excessively rational downward trend!
Specifically, across 7 pig-producing regions in the north and south, hog prices fell under pressure in the 28 regions monitored for data! In the northern market, hog prices in Northeast, North China, and Northwest China have generally fallen to 8.3~8.9 yuan/kg, with the overall price level falling below 9 yuan/kg and mainstream quotes at around 8.5~8.9 yuan/kg! In the southern market, covering Southwest, South China, East China, and Central China, hog prices in most of the south are 8.2~9 yuan/kg, except for quotes of 10.55 yuan/kg in Guangdong and 10 yuan/kg in Fujian. In East China, a traditionally high-priced region, quotes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 8.9~9 yuan/kg! Meanwhile, quotes in the Sichuan-Chongqing region of Southwest China are 8.75~8.8 yuan/kg……
Currently, the live pig market is sluggish and prices are on a “sliding downhill” trend. After the price center fell below 9 yuan/kg, the market continued to adjust downward. Imbalances between production and sales have become more pronounced in this phase. The following is an analysis of the factors supporting the decline in pig prices:
On the one hand, hog supplies are in surplus, with periodic competitive marketing by both independent producers and large-scale hog companies! Among independent pig farms, seasonal changes have increased biosecurity risks, and the average weight of marketed hogs has risen. There is no significant price spread between standard-weight and large hogs, so independent farms have a strong risk-averse mindset and an urgent need to recoup funds, leading many to accept sale offers. Some farms that previously restocked with standard-weight pigs for secondary fattening have also been actively selling medium and large hogs in phases, as the risk of losses from holding hogs back is high for producers. Among large-scale hog companies, leading companies had performed poorly against their marketing plans last month, and have fewer marketing days this month. According to institutional research, average daily sales by large-scale hog companies have increased by nearly 6% month on month. Hog supplies are in surplus, and companies in many regions face funding difficulties, contributing to a greater willingness to accept sale offers. However, as independent farms are actively selling hogs and supplies of low-priced cull sows are also relatively abundant, some leading hog companies are still falling short of their monthly marketing plans, and capacity pressure remains undiminished!
On the demand side, consumer demand is currently fluctuating at a low level. Although falling temperatures are favorable for the outlook for pork demand, changes in the domestic population structure and dietary habits have left pork demand with somewhat insufficient support. As of now, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses is 30.98%, and consumption is providing little effective support for pork prices. In addition, some slaughterhouses are regularly selling frozen pork stocks, adding to the supply of frozen pork in the market. This further limits trading in fresh pork and suppresses any rebound in pork prices after their sharp decline.
As a result, with supply exceeding demand, hog prices have recently continued to slide, and the average live hog price may adjust further downward. However, as prices gradually approach their low for the year, market sentiment may improve. Going forward, attention will focus on the pace of sales by major hog producers and changes on the demand side. In theory, after the middle to latter part of 11 month, expectations for the pickling season may support the live hog market, giving prices a chance to stabilize and recover. However, considerable pressure from excess supply may limit the scope for a rebound in hog prices.