In early 11, with the Start of Winter solar term approaching, seasonal demand in China’s consumer market has been recovering slowly in recent days! After the National Day holiday, reduced population movement left household demand sluggish, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses gradually fell to around 30%. However, as temperatures cool, residents’ demand to build up fat for winter is gradually recovering, and seasonal demand is also improving. So far, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses has risen to 31.09%, and slaughterhouse orders have increased, but the increase in demand is relatively limited! Consumption is providing somewhat insufficient support for hog prices!
On the one hand, the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter has risen, and the share of large hogs in market inventories has increased. In addition, with reports of disease at pig farms in multiple regions becoming more frequent recently, farmers are speeding up the culling of low-productivity sows. Hogs that were restocked earlier for secondary fattening are also being actively sold. The average slaughter weight of hogs has increased, further strengthening the market’s pork supply, with fresh pork supplies remaining high;
On the other hand, as the fourth quarter begins, slaughterhouses had previously taken advantage of low prices to process and put pork into storage, leaving frozen pork inventories relatively high. Recently, frozen pork has been shipped out in succession, squeezing the room for the purchase and sale of fresh pork and somewhat curbing slaughterhouse operating rates!
At present, pork demand is recovering slowly, but the consumer market lacks any clear increase! However, on the supply side, farms have relatively large planned hog shipments, and pressure from excess hog supply remains significant!
According to institutional research and analysis, last month, shipments from large corporate pig farms increased by 1.91% month on month, while consumer demand continued its customary decline during the month, creating a pattern of rising supply and falling demand! In addition, losses at independent pig farms led to a sharp increase in price-cutting, and more farms sought to liquidate and exit. During the month, leading pig enterprises completed only around 98.25% of their planned shipments, with some capacity continuing to defer shipments! According to cited data monitoring and analysis, in 11 month, large corporate pig farms increased shipments. This month, the shipment plan for the 173 monitored pig-farming enterprises rose to 1519.67 ten thousand head, an increase of 2.56% month on month. In particular, there are 30 shipment days this month, and average daily shipments are up nearly 6% month on month, keeping supply capacity high!
Accordingly, the domestic hog market currently faces a situation of “both supply and demand increasing.” However, market imbalance remains pronounced, and production and sales are mismatched! In particular, farms have relatively large planned shipments, while the risk of disease outbreaks has increased in the current period. Farm losses have deepened, and farms are increasingly inclined to liquidate and exit, highlighting the pressure from the mismatch between production and sales!
With supply and demand fundamentals weighing on the market, according to data monitoring and analysis, as of the 11 month 4, nationwidethree-way crossbred pigsthe average farm-gate price for three-way crossbred pigs stood at 8.94 yuan/kg, down by 0.07 yuan. Markets in the north and south continued to be generally weak, with the center of pig prices falling significantly, down nearly 27.4% year over year. The market showed a “collapse”-like decline...
Data monitoring shows that across 7 production regions in the north and south of China, pig prices in most of the 28 key monitored regions fell below 9 yuan/kg. Quotations for live pigs in Northeast, North, Northwest and Southwest China, as well as Central China, generally fell to 8.3~9.15 yuan/kg. Pig prices in many parts of East China also successively fell below 9 yuan/kg, and the market showed a “breakdown” decline!
Looking ahead, at present, with the oversupply situation difficult to improve, bearish sentiment continues to pervade the market, and marginal demand lacks effective support. Hog prices may continue to trend downward while bottoming out, with the price level likely to fall further. When will the “turning point” for a rise in hog prices arrive? Mainstream institutions believe that after the second half of 11 month, as seasonal demand improves further and the downstream market enters its peak period for curing meat, domestic hog prices are expected to stop falling and recover. However, given the excessive pressure on the supply side, the market may mainly see a bottoming-out recovery, and the outlook for a rebound in hog prices in the fourth quarter remains poor!
On the one hand, the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter has risen, and the share of large hogs in market inventories has increased. In addition, with reports of disease at pig farms in multiple regions becoming more frequent recently, farmers are speeding up the culling of low-productivity sows. Hogs that were restocked earlier for secondary fattening are also being actively sold. The average slaughter weight of hogs has increased, further strengthening the market’s pork supply, with fresh pork supplies remaining high;
On the other hand, as the fourth quarter begins, slaughterhouses had previously taken advantage of low prices to process and put pork into storage, leaving frozen pork inventories relatively high. Recently, frozen pork has been shipped out in succession, squeezing the room for the purchase and sale of fresh pork and somewhat curbing slaughterhouse operating rates!
At present, pork demand is recovering slowly, but the consumer market lacks any clear increase! However, on the supply side, farms have relatively large planned hog shipments, and pressure from excess hog supply remains significant!
According to institutional research and analysis, last month, shipments from large corporate pig farms increased by 1.91% month on month, while consumer demand continued its customary decline during the month, creating a pattern of rising supply and falling demand! In addition, losses at independent pig farms led to a sharp increase in price-cutting, and more farms sought to liquidate and exit. During the month, leading pig enterprises completed only around 98.25% of their planned shipments, with some capacity continuing to defer shipments! According to cited data monitoring and analysis, in 11 month, large corporate pig farms increased shipments. This month, the shipment plan for the 173 monitored pig-farming enterprises rose to 1519.67 ten thousand head, an increase of 2.56% month on month. In particular, there are 30 shipment days this month, and average daily shipments are up nearly 6% month on month, keeping supply capacity high!
Accordingly, the domestic hog market currently faces a situation of “both supply and demand increasing.” However, market imbalance remains pronounced, and production and sales are mismatched! In particular, farms have relatively large planned shipments, while the risk of disease outbreaks has increased in the current period. Farm losses have deepened, and farms are increasingly inclined to liquidate and exit, highlighting the pressure from the mismatch between production and sales!
With supply and demand fundamentals weighing on the market, according to data monitoring and analysis, as of the 11 month 4, nationwidethree-way crossbred pigsthe average farm-gate price for three-way crossbred pigs stood at 8.94 yuan/kg, down by 0.07 yuan. Markets in the north and south continued to be generally weak, with the center of pig prices falling significantly, down nearly 27.4% year over year. The market showed a “collapse”-like decline...
Data monitoring shows that across 7 production regions in the north and south of China, pig prices in most of the 28 key monitored regions fell below 9 yuan/kg. Quotations for live pigs in Northeast, North, Northwest and Southwest China, as well as Central China, generally fell to 8.3~9.15 yuan/kg. Pig prices in many parts of East China also successively fell below 9 yuan/kg, and the market showed a “breakdown” decline!
Looking ahead, at present, with the oversupply situation difficult to improve, bearish sentiment continues to pervade the market, and marginal demand lacks effective support. Hog prices may continue to trend downward while bottoming out, with the price level likely to fall further. When will the “turning point” for a rise in hog prices arrive? Mainstream institutions believe that after the second half of 11 month, as seasonal demand improves further and the downstream market enters its peak period for curing meat, domestic hog prices are expected to stop falling and recover. However, given the excessive pressure on the supply side, the market may mainly see a bottoming-out recovery, and the outlook for a rebound in hog prices in the fourth quarter remains poor!