EU agricultural markets are affected by a combination of extreme weather events, high input costs, trade disruptions and volatile macroeconomic conditions.
Intense heat and summer drought have led to a significant downward revision of summer crop yields and a reduction in pasture biomass, while also limiting feed availability. Nevertheless, late-August rainfall supported the sowing of winter cereals. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Ukraine has driven up energy and transport costs; moreover, disruptions along major shipping routes have increased uncertainty for trade and logistics. Fertiliser affordability—hampered by high gas prices and supply constraints—continues to pose a challenge for EU farmers.
More broadly, slow economic growth, persistent inflation and exchange rate fluctuations are putting the European Union's competitiveness under strain. Despite these pressures, oilseed crops are proving resilient.
EU cereal production for 2026/27 is estimated at 262 million tonnes, down 9,6% year on year and 4,7% below the five-year average.
This sharp decline is attributable to extreme heatwaves and severe drought that affected the main cereal-growing regions. Production of maize in the EU is the most affected: a decline of 20% compared with the five-year average is expected, bringing it to 48,5 million tonnes.
Autumn-winter crops were less exposed: production of soft wheat is expected to fall by less than 2% compared with the five-year average, bringing it to 124,2 million tonnes, while barley is 5% above the five-year average, supported by a record harvest in Romania. Due to lower domestic availability, Corn imports in 2026/27 are expected to rise to 25 million tonnes, an increase of 5,7 million tonnes compared with levels in 2025/26. Soft wheat exports are expected to remain stable at 29 million tonnes, thanks to abundant opening stocks. Overall, net cereal exports in 2026/27 are forecast at 10,2 million tonnes, compared with 18,1 million tonnes in 2025/26.
EU oilseed production for 2026/27 is estimated at 31,3 million tonnes, 0,3% lower than in 2025/26, but 1,8% higher than the five-year average. Production of soybeans was most affected by drought, standing at 2,2 million tonnes, or 19% lower than the five-year average. Production of rapeseed is expected to exceed the five-year average by 3,2% thanks to a larger cultivated area, although remaining 3,8% below 2025/26; production of sunflower is instead showing an increase of 5,3%, due to both an increase in the cultivated area and above-average yields in Romania and Bulgaria.
An increase in vegetable oil production is also expected, reaching 16,8 million tonnes (+1,7% compared with the five-year average), while soymeal imports are expected to rise to 20,5 million tonnes (+17% compared with the five-year average), to offset lower domestic production and growing demand for feed.
October 2026, European Commission / European Union.
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu
