Prices have fallen—and fallen sharply—as “Second Brother” (pigs) plunge “out of control”! Recently, price increases have been hard to find, and the market has continued to slide. The domestic live pig market is once again seeing a peak season without a peak, with the market’s center of gravity moving lower still,and pig prices have repeatedly hitnew lows for the second half of the year, while farming losses are becoming increasingly severe! So far, there are still no signs of a market rebound, and pig prices may continue to trend weakly. Does this mean the seasonal rise in 11 is “off the table”? Here is the analysis:
According to cited data monitoring, as of 11 3, nationwidethree-way crossbredlean-type standard-weight live pig ex-farm average price of 9.01 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan. Compared with 10 early-month price of 10.25 yuan/kg, pig prices have fallen by 12.1% cumulatively. Compared with 9 early-month price of 11.09 yuan/kg, pig prices are down 18.76%. Pig prices are now close to their low for the year. Last week, the average loss per head for farrow-to-finish farms in China increased to 303.74 yuan/head. Producers are facing a slow, painful squeeze, and market losses may increase further!
By region, among the 28 key monitored regions nationwide and the 7 northern and southern production areas, only South China saw slightly firmer quotes, while quotes in the Southwest market were relatively stable. Hog quotes generally fell in East, Central, Northwest, and North China, as well as Northeast China. Mainstream hog quotes dropped by 0.05~0.2 yuan/kg, and prices in many areas once again fell below 9 yuan/kg!
At present, in North China, only Heilongjiang and Gansu have quotes hovering at 9 yuan/kg. Hog prices in Shanxi, Hebei, Jilin, Liaoning, and other areas generally fell below 9 yuan/kg, with mainstream quotes dropping to 8.4~8.95 yuan/kg. The market is showing a sharp breakdown in prices!
In southern markets, mainstream prices in the Southwest and Central China generally fell below 9 yuan/kg. In East China, a traditionally high-priced market, hog prices also gradually declined to around 9 yuan/kg! At present, quotes in Sichuan and Chongqing are 8.85~8.9 yuan/kg; quotes in Shandong and Anhui have fallen to 9~9.15 yuan; Henan quotes are 8.9 yuan; Hunan quotes are 8.8 yuan; and Zhejiang quotes are 9.35 yuan/kg……
Accordingly, on 11/3, hog prices came under pressure and fell, and the market remained sluggish. The analysis of the factors driving the decline in hog prices is as follows:
In terms of demand, yesterday, in China’s major consumer cities, Beijing and Shanghai, white-strip pork quotations in the Beijing market were adjusted up and down by 0.1~0.2 yuan. Market feedback indicated average shipments. White-strip pork quotations in the Shanghai market fell to around 11.4~11.7 yuan/kg, with multiple markets reporting weak transactions. According to institutional research, yesterday, the price of white-strip pork from China’s top three grades was 12.47 yuan/kg, and the live-to-carcass price difference was 3.7 yuan/kg. Major slaughterhouses were suffering relatively heavy losses, producing according to sales, with little improvement in operating rates. In particular, sample slaughterhouses currently held high inventories of frozen pork. Last week, the frozen pork storage capacity utilization rate was 31.6%. Frozen pork continued to be shipped out, further suppressing the purchase and sale of fresh pork and weighing on slaughterhouse operations. According to sample data monitoring, the current overall operating rate of slaughterhouses was around 30.89%, with marginal demand support appearing somewhat insufficient.
In terms of supply, yesterday, hog shipments declined in the main producing regions in northern and southern China, including Northeast China, Central China, and Southwest China, but increased in East China and Northwest China. In terms of the pace of hog arrivals at slaughterhouses, shipments from producers in Northeast China were smooth; group slaughtering enterprises faced relatively little difficulty in procurement, and large-scale hog producers sold at relatively low prices. In East and Central China, willingness to ship hogs was relatively strong, and independent pig farms were actively offering animals for sale. Local slaughterhouses brought forward their planned procurement, and some took advantage of the situation to lower prices. In southern markets, including Southwest and South China, slaughterhouses faced average procurement difficulty, and purchasing and selling sentiment was somewhat cautious. At present, market sentiment is mainly bearish or steady.
According to institutional analysis, demand-related positive factors are limited and consumer support appears somewhat insufficient. In addition, biosecurity risks at pig farms have increased recently. Independent producers and secondary-fattening farms have a relatively strong willingness to ship, while the market has seen little restocking of standard-weight hogs at lower prices. Large-scale hog producers are mostly maintaining their normal shipment pace. The imbalance of strong supply and weak demand has yet to ease, and hog prices may remain in a fluctuating downward trend.
However, as quotations for standard-weight hogs approach their low for the year, underlying market support may gradually recover. In particular, the seasonal peak demand period is approaching; as the weather cools later on, domestic demand is expected to improve and producer sentiment may recover. In the middle to latter part of 11 month, hog prices may have an opportunity to strengthen toward the end of the period.
According to cited data monitoring, as of 11 3, nationwidethree-way crossbredlean-type standard-weight live pig ex-farm average price of 9.01 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan. Compared with 10 early-month price of 10.25 yuan/kg, pig prices have fallen by 12.1% cumulatively. Compared with 9 early-month price of 11.09 yuan/kg, pig prices are down 18.76%. Pig prices are now close to their low for the year. Last week, the average loss per head for farrow-to-finish farms in China increased to 303.74 yuan/head. Producers are facing a slow, painful squeeze, and market losses may increase further!
By region, among the 28 key monitored regions nationwide and the 7 northern and southern production areas, only South China saw slightly firmer quotes, while quotes in the Southwest market were relatively stable. Hog quotes generally fell in East, Central, Northwest, and North China, as well as Northeast China. Mainstream hog quotes dropped by 0.05~0.2 yuan/kg, and prices in many areas once again fell below 9 yuan/kg!
At present, in North China, only Heilongjiang and Gansu have quotes hovering at 9 yuan/kg. Hog prices in Shanxi, Hebei, Jilin, Liaoning, and other areas generally fell below 9 yuan/kg, with mainstream quotes dropping to 8.4~8.95 yuan/kg. The market is showing a sharp breakdown in prices!
In southern markets, mainstream prices in the Southwest and Central China generally fell below 9 yuan/kg. In East China, a traditionally high-priced market, hog prices also gradually declined to around 9 yuan/kg! At present, quotes in Sichuan and Chongqing are 8.85~8.9 yuan/kg; quotes in Shandong and Anhui have fallen to 9~9.15 yuan; Henan quotes are 8.9 yuan; Hunan quotes are 8.8 yuan; and Zhejiang quotes are 9.35 yuan/kg……
Accordingly, on 11/3, hog prices came under pressure and fell, and the market remained sluggish. The analysis of the factors driving the decline in hog prices is as follows:
In terms of demand, yesterday, in China’s major consumer cities, Beijing and Shanghai, white-strip pork quotations in the Beijing market were adjusted up and down by 0.1~0.2 yuan. Market feedback indicated average shipments. White-strip pork quotations in the Shanghai market fell to around 11.4~11.7 yuan/kg, with multiple markets reporting weak transactions. According to institutional research, yesterday, the price of white-strip pork from China’s top three grades was 12.47 yuan/kg, and the live-to-carcass price difference was 3.7 yuan/kg. Major slaughterhouses were suffering relatively heavy losses, producing according to sales, with little improvement in operating rates. In particular, sample slaughterhouses currently held high inventories of frozen pork. Last week, the frozen pork storage capacity utilization rate was 31.6%. Frozen pork continued to be shipped out, further suppressing the purchase and sale of fresh pork and weighing on slaughterhouse operations. According to sample data monitoring, the current overall operating rate of slaughterhouses was around 30.89%, with marginal demand support appearing somewhat insufficient.
In terms of supply, yesterday, hog shipments declined in the main producing regions in northern and southern China, including Northeast China, Central China, and Southwest China, but increased in East China and Northwest China. In terms of the pace of hog arrivals at slaughterhouses, shipments from producers in Northeast China were smooth; group slaughtering enterprises faced relatively little difficulty in procurement, and large-scale hog producers sold at relatively low prices. In East and Central China, willingness to ship hogs was relatively strong, and independent pig farms were actively offering animals for sale. Local slaughterhouses brought forward their planned procurement, and some took advantage of the situation to lower prices. In southern markets, including Southwest and South China, slaughterhouses faced average procurement difficulty, and purchasing and selling sentiment was somewhat cautious. At present, market sentiment is mainly bearish or steady.
According to institutional analysis, demand-related positive factors are limited and consumer support appears somewhat insufficient. In addition, biosecurity risks at pig farms have increased recently. Independent producers and secondary-fattening farms have a relatively strong willingness to ship, while the market has seen little restocking of standard-weight hogs at lower prices. Large-scale hog producers are mostly maintaining their normal shipment pace. The imbalance of strong supply and weak demand has yet to ease, and hog prices may remain in a fluctuating downward trend.
However, as quotations for standard-weight hogs approach their low for the year, underlying market support may gradually recover. In particular, the seasonal peak demand period is approaching; as the weather cools later on, domestic demand is expected to improve and producer sentiment may recover. In the middle to latter part of 11 month, hog prices may have an opportunity to strengthen toward the end of the period.