At the start of the fourth quarter of 2026, the domestic live hog market saw no boost from demand entering its peak season. Instead, prices continued to probe lower as multiple pressures on the supply side were released at once. According to data from Mysteel Agricultural Products, domestic live hog prices continued to decline in 10, falling from 10.2 yuan/kg at the start of the month to 9.1 yuan/kg on the 29, a drop of as much as 10.8% over the period. Although prices did not fall below the low recorded in the first half of the year, they have fallen well below the industry’s low-price expectations for the second half of the year. At present, the average live hog marketing weight continues to rise, while the narrowing spread between standard and heavy hogs and persistently high frozen pork inventories are keeping the market in a stalemate characterized by “rising volume, falling prices, and inventory buildup.”
1, with average slaughter weight continuing to rise, acts as an “amplifier” of supply pressure
The current decline in market hog prices has not effectively curbed the pace of marketing by producers; instead, it has coincided with a continued increase in average slaughter weight. According to monitoring data from Mysteel Agricultural Products, the price spread between standard-weight and heavier hogs continued to widen in mid-8, and the average weight of hogs marketed in China rebounded after falling. Average weight growth accelerated in 10. As of 29, the average weight of hogs marketed by large-scale enterprises in China had risen to 125.0 kilograms, up 1.2 kilograms from the beginning of the month and approximately 1.7 kilograms above the same period last year. Even if the number of hogs marketed remains unchanged, the actual pork supply is being passively amplified.
Secondly, demand for pigs weighing over 150 kilograms gradually increased during the month, while the price spread between standard and heavier pigs narrowed slightly against the trend. As of 10 month 29, the national average price for standard pigs was 9.1 yuan per kilogram, and the average price for heavier pigs was 10.0 yuan per kilogram, a price spread of -0.89 yuan per kilogram. Although heavier pigs were priced above standard pigs, the spread was insufficient to cover the additional costs of holding pigs longer. Restocking for secondary fattening remained cautious, and most producers sold in line with the market to ease their own pressure.
The deeper reasons behind the rise in average slaughter weight lie in cash-flow pressure and strategic considerations among producers. On the one hand, sustained losses forced some producers to delay sales while waiting for a rebound. On the other hand, during the earlier capacity reduction process, some leading companies controlled pig weights and postponed sales. In addition, with limited follow-through in consumption, average live-pig weight increased relatively quickly as volumes shifted with the weather. The coexistence of “involuntary holding” and “deliberate delays” meant that supply pressure was not naturally cleared by falling pig prices; instead, it accumulated and continued to weigh on prices.
2, the price spread between standard-weight and heavy pigs narrowed, and demand for larger pigs provided insufficient support
In previous years, as the fourth quarter began, prices for heavy pigs often received support from demand expectations on the eve of the curing season. This year, however, the seasonal pattern has weakened considerably. The recovery in end-consumer demand is currently far below seasonal expectations, causing peak-season expectations to go unmet and leaving prices without upward momentum. The price spread between standard-weight and heavy pigs narrowed from -1.03 yuan/kg at the end of 9 to -0.88 yuan/kg at the end of 10. Under pressure from losses on fresh pork sales, slaughtering companies have remained reluctant to buy high-priced large pigs. In addition, live pigs held back for sale earlier continued to be released throughout the month, so supply pressure was not eased. The decline in heavy pig prices reflects not only insufficient consumer demand for high-fat pork, but also increased supply pressure.
The current market has formed a negative cycle: weak hog prices → holding pigs longer at an equivalent price → concentrated marketings → continued downward pressure on prices.
3, frozen product inventories adjusting at a high level
The average slaughter weight is a “flow” pressure on supply, while frozen-product inventories are a “stock” restraint. Although frozen-product inventories at slaughtering companies have edged down from their previous highs, they remain at historically high levels year on year. At the end of 10 month, domestic frozen-product warehouse capacity utilization was 32.6%, down only 0.5% from the peak at the beginning of 8 month, and up as much as 13.4% year on year.
High inventories are weighing on spot prices. First, the substitution effect: releasing frozen products directly takes market share away from fresh sales. Against a backdrop of already weak end-user demand, this further narrows the scope for selling fresh products. Second, the effects on cash flow and sentiment: slaughtering companies and traders face significant pressure from tied-up capital. During the holiday stocking season, they may instead be inclined to release products in volume to free up funds, creating an additional supply shock during the traditional peak demand season. Slaughtering companies are currently suffering heavy losses and are already reluctant to buy hogs. The continued presence of frozen-product inventories leaves them with little incentive to proactively raise purchase prices, further limiting the potential for a spot-price rebound.
4, Market expectations for the fourth quarter
Considering the three pressures outlined above, hog prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels in the fourth quarter, with limited room for a rebound. Although the number of breeding sows has declined, higher PSY has meant that the total number of market hogs shipped has not contracted significantly. The high average shipment weight means that each hog supplies more pork than in the same period in previous years, while reducing frozen pork inventories will take time and depend on key consumption periods. On the demand side, consumption is unlikely to provide a short-term boost; demand may receive a temporary lift later from the curing season and pre-Spring Festival stocking. However, given changes in consumer habits and the substitution effect of frozen pork, the impact of peak-season demand on prices is expected to be limited, with only a temporary, phased price rebound. Baseline supply, high hog weights, and frozen pork inventories are likely to continue weighing on prices.