US consumers are eating more meat and showing a renewed interest in protein, creating a favorable environment for animal agriculture. But for pork producers, that broader protein momentum comes with an important caveat: pork has not captured the same demand growth as the overall meat category.

That distinction is increasingly important as US pork production moves toward record levels while producer margins tighten.

Dr. Glynn Tonsor, professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, outlined the changing US pork market and the central role of consumer demand during the 2026 Four Star Veterinary Service Pork Industry Conference in Muncie, Indiana. His presentation, US Pork Market Outlook: Never a Dull Day, examined pork supplies, prices and returns before turning to what Tonsor sees as an increasingly important industry priority: strengthening consumer pork demand.

Meat is having a moment

Tonsor began with a positive development for the broader meat industry: Americans are not walking away from meat.

US per capita red meat and poultry consumption reached 213 pounds in 2025, up 16% from 184 pounds in 2014. Consumption is forecast to remain around 213 pounds in 2026 and 2027.

Pork, however, has been comparatively stable. Per capita pork consumption was 49.3 pounds in 2025 and is forecast at 49.6 pounds in 2026. Pork consumption has hovered near 50 pounds per person for roughly 25 years.

“Meat is having a moment,” Tonsor said, noting that much of the recent growth has been driven by beef and chicken rather than pork. Still, he sees the broader enthusiasm around protein as a significant opportunity for the pork industry.

Other consumer indicators support that view. Kansas State University’s Meat Demand Monitor shows that 75% of respondents regularly consume animal products, up from 68% in 2020, while the prevalence of consumers identifying as vegan or vegetarian has declined from its 2021-2022 levels.

Consumers are also putting more dollars into meat. Per capita meat and poultry spending reached $1,061 in 2025 compared with $670 in 2014, with growth occurring even after accounting for inflation. Pork spending reached approximately $246 per person.

The challenge is that pork has not benefited equally from that increased spending.

Record pork supplies are coming

The supply side of the pork industry continues to demonstrate significant productivity gains.

US pork production is forecast at 28 billion pounds in 2026, 1.4% higher than 2025. Production is expected to rise another 0.6% in 2027 to a record 28.2 billion pounds. Carcass weights in 2026 are running approximately 1% above 2025 levels.

Importantly, rising pork production does not require a rapidly expanding breeding herd.

The June Hogs and Pigs report showed 73.7 million hogs and pigs, essentially unchanged from the previous year, while the breeding herd was down 1.2% at 5.88 million head. At the same time, pigs per litter reached 11.87 during March through May, up 1%.

The longer-term productivity story is even more striking. Pork produced per breeding animal increased by 2,067 pounds between 1996 and 2025, while litter rates increased 40%, or approximately 3.4 pigs. USDA projections point to another 14% increase in pork production between 2026 and 2035.

For producers, Tonsor’s message is that herd size alone is no longer an adequate indicator of future pork supplies. Continued productivity improvements mean fewer sows do not necessarily translate into less pork.

Margins expected to tighten

Those additional supplies are arriving as the price and cost outlook becomes more challenging.

The 2025 composite lean hog price averaged $92.50 per cwt, up 9% and the third-highest nominal annual price on record. The 2026 forecast is approximately $87, down 5%, while the 2027 forecast falls to roughly $85 as supplies continue increasing.

Meanwhile, production costs remain well above 2020 levels.

The Iowa farrow-to-finish breakeven was approximately $83 per cwt carcass in 2025 and is forecast to increase to $85 in 2026 and $87 in 2027. Input costs increased an average of 28% between 2020 and 2025 and are projected to rise about another 7% in 2026.

The result is a significant change in projected producer profitability. Estimated returns were $20.98 per head in 2025, the strongest year since 2021. Returns are forecast at only $3.54 per head in 2026, with substantial losses expected during the fourth quarter. For 2027, projected returns fall to a loss of $15.58 per head.

With more dollars at risk, Tonsor emphasized the importance of producers knowing their individual breakevens and considering downside margin protection.

Exports also remain critical to the equation. Approximately 25% of US pork production is exported, making trade policy and foreign demand important determinants of domestic market conditions. Through May 2026, exports were up 5.4% by volume and 4.7% by value.

The general trend Tonsor pointed out is that both the US and Brazil collectively continue to export more while Europe has stepped back. He believes the US will be less reliant on China and doesn’t anticipate that market to shift higher in the near term.

Consumption is not demand

One of Tonsor’s central messages was the need to distinguish pork consumption from pork demand.

Per capita disappearance simply measures the amount of pork available domestically divided by the US population. It does not indicate how much consumers value that pork.

“There’s not a dollar sign. There’s not a value in that,” Tonsor said of the per capita consumption figure. “But you can’t conclude anything about the consumer value of pork and the dollars coming back into the industry that pay the bills for everything, until you know something about the product, price and quantity.”

Economically, stronger demand means consumers are willing to purchase more pork products at higher inflation-adjusted prices. Simply moving additional pounds does not necessarily represent stronger demand.

That distinction exposes one of pork’s current challenges. Per capita pork expenditures reached $244.11 in 2025, the second-highest nominal level on record. After adjusting for inflation, however, 2025 ranked only 15th among the past 25 years. The purchasing power of those dollars was roughly comparable to 2018.

Pork’s share of total consumer food expenditures has also declined, falling from 4.6% in 2001 to 3.3% in 2025.

For Tonsor, that trend deserves attention because consumer food dollars ultimately help finance every segment of the pork value chain.

High beef prices have not been enough

The pork industry also cannot assume that expensive competing proteins will automatically create stronger pork demand.

Tonsor presented research showing that pork loin purchases are much more responsive to changes in pork’s own price than to changes in competing meat prices. A 1% increase in pork loin price is associated with an approximately 1.16% reduction in retail purchases, while cross-price effects from competing products are considerably smaller.

That helps explain why historically high beef prices have not produced the boost in pork demand that some industry participants anticipated.

Instead, Tonsor said the industry’s more meaningful opportunity lies in factors it can influence, including taste, quality and consumer preferences.

Household finances create another headwind

The broader economy is also affecting pork purchasing behavior.

Meat Demand Monitor data from June 2026 showed a clear difference in pork consumption based on household financial conditions. Consumers who said their finances were improving included pork in about 3.9 meals per week, compared with approximately 2.9 meals among households reporting worsening finances.

Thirty-four percent of respondents said their finances were weakening, while only 19% reported improving financial conditions.

Changing meal patterns present another challenge. Breakfast skipping has increased, creating a potential headwind because of pork’s historically strong position in breakfast meals. Pork’s prior-day meal inclusion has also declined from its 2021 peak.

Growing the economic pie

Ultimately, Tonsor’s outlook connects the industry’s impressive production achievements with the need to generate sufficient consumer value for that additional pork.

Wholesale pork demand increased 1.9% from May 2025 through April 2026, which Tonsor’s presentation estimated added $0.80 per cwt to hog prices, $1.72 per market hog and approximately $58.45 million in aggregate market hog value. Export demand likely accounted for much of that improvement because domestic retail demand weakened during the same period.

The numbers illustrate why demand is not an abstract consumer-marketing issue. It reaches directly back to producer returns.

With record pork production expected in 2026 and 2027 and margins projected to tighten, continued productivity gains alone cannot guarantee profitability. The industry’s ability to encourage consumers to value pork, purchase it more frequently and devote a larger share of their food dollars to it will become increasingly important.

As Tonsor summarized, pork demand is worth “better appreciating, investing in, measuring, and prioritizing, and we must grow the economic pie.”