In 2026, spot prices for domestic eggs in 10 showed a typical seasonal destocking and recovery pattern. After the one-off release of front-loaded stocking demand ahead of the two major holidays, new production capacity from the earlier high rate of flock replenishment continued to come online, and egg prices first fell rapidly. With low prices prompting passive restocking and channel inventories being drawn down, prices rebounded from their lows in the latter part of the month. However, viewed across the fundamentals of the production cycle, flock age structure, and cross-commodity price ratios, this rebound is a valuation recovery following an oversold decline, not a reversal in the supply-demand balance. Price upside in the fourth quarter will remain constrained by rigid supply.
I. Market review: Deep V-shaped fluctuations during the month, with the annual price midpoint at a low level
The average spot price of eggs in major producing regions fell from 4.24 yuan/jin at the beginning of 10 to a low of 3.72 yuan/jin on 20 10, with the largest decline during the month reaching 12.0%, marking a six-month low for spot prices. Market sentiment then recovered, and on 27 10, prices rose to 4.09 yuan/jin, rebounding 0.37 yuan/jin from the low, a gain of 10.0%. As of 27 10, the monthly average price for 10 was 3.95 yuan/jin, in the lower range of the year in 2026.
Looking back at the price curve for the year, egg prices in 2026 followed a cyclical pattern of rising first and then falling: they touched the annual low of 3.53 yuan per jin in 1–2; rose step by step in 3–6 as older hens were culled and demand recovered, reaching the annual high of 4.19 yuan per jin in 6; and returned to range-bound fluctuations in 7–9, trading within a range of 3.76–4.10 yuan per jin. Overall, the price range narrowed during the year. The main reason was that continuous restocking across cycles smoothed the capacity shortfall and weakened cyclical elasticity.
Market assessment: The decline reflected the fading of the pre-holiday demand pulse combined with the release of new capacity. The rebound was driven by channel restocking triggered by low prices and inventory drawdown, with no support from additional sustained demand growth.
Two. Supply side: The age structure of laying hens determines capacity rigidity, and capacity reduction is progressing slowly
According to monitoring, the number of laying hens in production nationwide in 9 was 12.53 hundred million, a slight decrease month on month. However, the inventory reading does not indicate a supply inflection point; the key constraint is the delayed realization of earlier chick placements. The laying cycle is approximately 4–5 months. The annual peak in chick placements was in 2026 4–5, and flocks from that batch began entering the laying cycle successively from 7. Newly laying hens continued to increase in 7–9, offsetting the decline from culling older hens, so effective industry supply showed a marginal upward trend.
From the culling side: Recently, prices for spent hens have been range-bound. Cash flow pressure on farming businesses has not yet reached the threshold for forced culling, and their willingness to cull proactively is weak, with no concentrated capacity clearance. Inventory indicators have improved marginally: producer-side inventory fell from 1.00 days to 0.95 days, while distribution-side inventory fell from 1.44 days to 1.05 days. Visible inventory pressure in production areas has eased, but this is only a short-term inventory transfer resulting from sales at lower prices, not substantive capacity destocking. In addition, as temperatures fall in 10, heat stress on laying hens subsides and flock egg-laying rates recover seasonally. Daily egg output per bird in the laying flock increases, further reinforcing the underlying rationale for ample supply.
In short: The slight short-term decline in the laying flock is only a surface-level development; the sustained increase in new layers coming into production is the main trend. Capacity reduction requires sustained losses to force culling, and the conditions for that are not yet in place.
III. Demand side: Fundamentals weaken in the off-season, while protein price comparisons exert pressure
After the concentrated stockpiling period for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day ends, eggs enter the traditional off-season window. Demand is characterized by “weak industrial demand, stable household demand, and no incremental demand.”
Distribution channel: Wholesale markets in destination areas and supermarkets continue to purchase and sell on an as-needed basis. Traders are keen to keep inventories low, and speculative stockpiling is subdued;
Processing sector: Orders from food industries such as baking, pastries, and egg products have declined month over month. Businesses are delaying the timing of stockpiling, and their procurement volumes are more conservative than in previous years. Industrial demand is the main factor weighing on the current weakening in demand;
Cross-commodity price comparison constraint: The current hog live-sale price is 9.23 yuan per kilogram. Pork is at a relatively low level. Given household budgets for protein consumption, pork is substituting for eggs, reducing the price elasticity of egg demand and limiting the potential for prices to rise.
From a seasonal perspective, 10 month is itself an off-season for egg demand. The increase in rigid demand from group catering and restaurants is insufficient to offset the demand gap caused by the retreat in pre-holiday stockpiling. There are no demand-side drivers to sustain an upward trend in prices.
IV. Price and Cycle Outlook: Short-Term Range-Bound Fluctuations; Limited Upside from Year-End Holiday Demand
Short term (1–2 weeks): Range-bound trading, with clear support and resistance
Newly placed flocks of laying hens continue to ramp up on the supply side, and capacity is rigid and difficult to reduce quickly; on the demand side, the seasonal lull continues, with no concentrated restocking surge. Price boundaries: 3.70 yuan/jin is strong short-term support, and at around this level, downstream buyers will replenish safety stocks; 4.10 yuan/jin is the near-month resistance level. Once prices reach this range, downstream buyers’ willingness to purchase will quickly decline, leaving prices vulnerable to renewed pressure. The expected trading range is 3.80–4.10 yuan/jin, with fluctuations and recovery as the main pattern; a sustained upward trend is unlikely to take shape.
Medium to long term (11–12 months): Seasonal support provides a floor, but supply pressure remains unchanged
11-month e-commerce stocking and 12-month Double Festival consumption are certain seasonal tailwinds in the fourth quarter. Combined with the longer shelf life of eggs in low-temperature conditions and higher safety-stock thresholds across distribution channels, they may push the price center higher. However, the core contradiction remains unchanged: the production capacity release cycle corresponding to the high level of restocking in the second quarter continues, and new production coming online continues to cap the upside. The favorable factors may bring only a temporary pulse and are unlikely to drive a one-way trend. The price center is expected to fluctuate within a range of 11–12 months at 4.00–4.30 yuan per jin, with an upward-trending, volatile pattern.
V. Industry Trading and Business Operations Guidance
For producers: This rebound is a recovery, and a short-term price rebound should not be interpreted as a cyclical reversal. It is recommended to dynamically plan culling based on the age structure of one’s own flock, avoid blindly adding chicks for restocking during a high-inventory cycle, and control capacity risks;
For traders and processors: Maintain a light-inventory strategy in the off-season, build safety stocks in batches when prices fall, and closely track three leading indicators: the pace of culling hen shipments, chick sales, and spot hog prices, to assess relative-price and capacity turning points;
The main investment research monitoring focus: Going forward, the key indicators to track, in order, are signals of concentrated culling and market releases of spent hens, a turning point in the increase in newly laying hens, and changes in food factory orders. Only when these indicators move in concert is the current range-bound pattern likely to break.