At the start of 11, the domestic live pig market has recently continued to bottom out and decline. The average live pig price is gradually approaching 9 yuan/kg, and farming losses are deepening! However, as the market’s center of gravity shifts downward, this round of cyclical decline may be nearing its end, and a seasonal rise in pig prices may be about to begin. The live pig market may see a “turning point” in 11. Details follow:
According to current institutional research, on 2 11 2026, the average ex-farm price of lean, three-way-cross live pigs nationwide was 9.06 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. Pig prices continued to move sideways with a weak bias. However, they were down more than 27.64% year over year, leaving prices at a periodic low. In particular, the gap with this year’s low of 8.63 yuan/kg has narrowed to 0.43 yuan/kg. The live pig market is stuck in a “quagmire,” and farmers are being slowly ground down by their losses!
Regional feedback shows that on 2 11, across the 7 production regions spanning northern and southern China, the live pig market in the 28 key monitored regions showed a pattern of “9 declines and 5 increases.” The market was broadly stable with minor fluctuations, and the national average live pig price was close to that in Guangxi! Among areas posting increases, quoted prices in Henan, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, and Sichuan rose by 0.05~0.1 yuan/kg! Among areas posting declines, quoted prices in Shaanxi and Gansu, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin, Hubei, and Anhui fell by 0.05~0.15 yuan!
By region, in the northern markets—Northeast, North China, and Northwest—live hog prices generally fell to 8.45~9.2 yuan/kg, with quotes in most areas dropping below 9 yuan/kg. Quotes in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning were 8.85~9 yuan/kg, while those in Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin were 9 yuan/kg. In the southern markets—Southwest, East China, Central China, and South China—live hog prices generally fell to 8.5~10.6 yuan/kg. Only Guangdong and Fujian quoted above 10 yuan/kg, with mainstream quotes at 8.9~9.4 yuan/kg. Among these, quotes in Sichuan and Chongqing were 8.85~8.9 yuan, those in Shandong and Anhui were 9.1~9.2 yuan, those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 9.25~9.4 yuan/kg, Henan quoted 9.05 yuan, and Guangdong quoted 10.6 yuan/kg…
Based on this analysis, on the 11 month 2, hog prices were slightly weak within a narrow range. Prices in the northern and southern markets mostly showed a mixed pattern, with declines concentrated in the north. Scattered quotes in South China, Central China, and the Southwest strengthened slightly, while the overall market remained broadly stable!
On the demand side, in the main consumption markets of Beijing and Shanghai, prices for carcasses at Beijing’s main wholesale markets were generally stable, with ordinary feedback on market trading. In Shanghai, mainstream carcass quotes were around 11.8 yuan/kg, and demand absorption was average.
At present, the consumer market is in its peak season, but the seasonal recovery in demand has been weak. On the one hand, the weight of hogs being marketed has increased, pork supply is ample, and market participants have little inclination to build inventories, keeping the supply outlook loose. On the other hand, as the weather turns cooler, people are traveling less and residents are eating out less. Growth in demand from urban restaurants and dine-in services is limited. Although cooler temperatures have helped domestic market demand recover, the overall increase in consumption is limited, and demand is somewhat insufficient to support hog prices. In particular, major slaughterhouses are facing an inadequate margin between live hog and carcass prices and substantial losses, and still have an incentive to push prices down.
From the supply side, yesterday, leading pig enterprises saw a slight increase in hog sales in parts of East China, Northwest China, Central China, and Southwest China! However, as hog fattening continues to incur losses, farms are under considerable financial pressure. Confidence in a stronger market outlook remains among commercial farms, while independent farms have shown only an average willingness to sell, so supply pressure is relatively limited! In terms of slaughterhouse purchasing, in the Northeast market, hog deliveries to slaughterhouses are proceeding smoothly, market trading is average, and prices are likely to remain generally stable. In East and Central China, farms’ sales pace is average, while slaughterhouses are managing to maintain their procurement plans reasonably well. In Southwest and South China, group pig enterprises have improved their sales completion rates, and market sentiment has improved slightly!
Accordingly, amid the supply-demand tug-of-war, hog prices are currently likely to move sideways. However, as temperatures fall, marginal support from domestic market demand may improve. In addition, with the Hanshi Festival approaching, the festive atmosphere may strengthen, and farms may become more willing to hold prices firm. In my view, hog prices may see a modest short-term recovery, but the scope for a rebound is likely to be limited! Watch for changes in the pace of market trading going forward!