According to data monitored by Zhu Haoduo, the national average price of live pigs of the three-way crossbreed was 9.1 yuan/kg on 10 month 31, down 0.05 yuan/kg from yesterday. Currently, neither supply nor demand is providing favorable support to the market. Pork prices continue to follow a weak, bottoming-out trend, with noticeable differences between regions.
According to monitoring, the 7 major production regions nationwide generally showed a choppy, consolidating trend across 28 areas. Hog prices in northern markets were concentrated in the range of 8.5 to 9.3 yuan per kilogram, generally holding steady, with quotes in some areas edging up slightly. Prices in southern markets varied more widely, with quotes ranging from 8.5 to 10.55 yuan per kilogram.
Continued ample supply is the key factor weighing on market prices. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, large-scale hog companies’ monthly sales volume in 10 increased by 2.45% month on month, but sales showed a clear pattern of being slower early in the month and faster later: in the first ten days, sales by corporate hog producers progressed slowly due to the National Day holiday; after the holiday, losses from hog fattening continued to deepen. In addition, as disease risks at pig farms in the south rose, independent pig farms became strongly inclined to sell. Secondary-fattening operators that had entered the market on a rolling basis earlier also sold medium and large hogs in concentrated volumes, further increasing market supply pressure.
As a result, large-scale pig farming companies’ monthly marketings fell short of expectations. According to Mysteel data, as of the 10th day of 21, the monthly completion rate for hog marketings in production areas was only 61.96%. After the market entered the latter part of the month, leading pig farming companies in many areas across the north and south began increasing marketings, and the overall market supply of hogs remained ample.
Demand has consistently lacked effective support. Currently, feedback on the buying and selling of white pork downstream is subdued. The market broadly shares the expectation that hog supplies are ample, and channel participants generally have little willingness to stockpile. Major slaughterhouses mostly set production according to sales and operate based on orders, making it difficult for end-user demand to push hog prices higher.
From the fourth quarter through the Spring Festival in 2027, hog prices are expected to follow an overall trajectory of “first fluctuating and bottoming out, then rising seasonally.” In the short term, supply and demand will remain imbalanced. However, from after the Winter Solstice until the Spring Festival, demand for southern-style cured meats, northern-style sausage making, and Spring Festival stockpiling will be released in succession. Pork consumption will enter its annual peak, and the center of hog prices is expected to rise to a temporary high of 11.5-12.5 yuan per kilogram. After the Spring Festival, demand will decline seasonally, and hog prices will most likely return to the 9.0-10.0 yuan per kilogram range.