At the beginning of 11, in China’s livestock and poultry farming sector, the hog market followed a downward trend last month! At the beginning of 10, hog prices briefly fell below 10 yuan per kilogram at the end of 9. Buoyed by the holiday atmosphere, prices stopped falling and recovered. Unfortunately, the rise was short-lived: after standard hogs rebounded to 10.25 yuan per kilogram, prices came under pressure and fell again! In particular, supply pressure was excessive during the month, and various types of farming operators actively sent hogs to market, creating strong demand for cash recovery. However, marginal demand remained weak. After the National Day holiday, tourism consumption cooled and people’s mobility declined. Seasonal demand showed little sign of recovery, further deepening the imbalance between production and sales. Domestic hog prices remained sluggish, and the average live hog price gradually fell to 9.07 yuan per kilogram. Hog prices fell by a cumulative 11.5% during the month, while the loss per hog for mainstream domestic live-hog fattening operations exceeded 300 yuan on average. Farming entered a cyclical trough, and the live-hog market clearly showed the characteristic of a peak season that failed to bring peak demand!
Entering month 11, at the beginning of the month, there is limited room for further declines in pig prices in the live hog market, and the market is gradually stabilizing after bottoming out. As of 11 month 1, citing institutional monitoring, the average ex-farm price of lean, three-way crossbred live hogs nationwide was 9.07 yuan/kg. The market was mainly consolidating, down 27.8% from the same period last year. The live hog market has entered a “bottoming-out” phase, with both bullish and bearish sentiment present; in the short term, pig prices may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.
By region, across the 28 northern and southern live hog-producing regions under key domestic monitoring, the market showed a pattern of “4 declines and 5 gains,” with conditions generally steady in most areas. The national average live hog price was close to the 9.05 yuan/kg reported in Heilongjiang, Hebei, and other areas. Live hogs in the north and south were generally quoted at 8.45~10.55 yuan/kg, with quotes in most areas at 8.8~9.4 yuan/kg.
Among them, quotations in Anhui, Shanxi, Jilin, Liaoning, and Yunnan rose slightly by 0.05~0.1 yuan per kilogram, while quotations in Hubei, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Gansu fell by 0.05~0.15 yuan per kilogram! Currently, quotations in the Heilongjiang-Jilin-Liaoning region are 8.85~9.05 yuan per kilogram. In the southern high-price regions, quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing are 8.8~8.9 yuan, those in Shandong and Anhui are 9.1~9.25 yuan, those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 9.25~9.4 yuan, those in Henan are 9 yuan, and those in Guangdong and Guangxi are 8.95~10.55 yuan per kilogram…
At present, the live hog market is largely stable with minor fluctuations. The decline in hog prices has “cooled off,” and the market is showing a lackluster pattern. Hog prices may remain weak but stable for a short time.
On the one hand, on the supply side, as the start of 11 month approaches, large-scale hog enterprises in northern and southern regions differ in their shipment pace, and market sentiment is average. Although the planned shipments of major large-scale hog enterprises for 10 may be completed or fall short of expectations, supply-side pressure will remain in early 11. However, as live hog prices are about to bottom out at 9 yuan/kg and farming losses deepen, some hog farms in the open market are willing to hold back sales and support prices. Live hog circulation is average, and feedback from slaughterhouses in some areas indicates that hog arrivals are somewhat slower.
On the demand side, demand is currently receiving insufficient support. Downstream market activity is mainly driven by restocking to meet essential needs, while slaughterhouse orders have not increased and the operating rate is below 31%. Frozen pork is also being shipped out gradually, further limiting the buying and selling of white pork at the consumer end. Consumption support appears somewhat weak. However, as the Cold Clothes Festival approaches in early 11 month, domestic market demand may gradually improve. With temperatures falling further, household demand may also recover, and the consumer market may maintain a slow rebound, providing support to the market!
Based on the interplay between supply and demand, the current market is primarily range-bound. However, a bottoming trend in pig prices may be taking shape. In the first half of 11 month, the live pig market may continue to fluctuate slightly in both directions! After mid-11 month, as temperatures fall and marginal demand support strengthens, pressure on the supply side is expected to ease gradually. Market confidence in price increases may recover, and pig prices may see a seasonal peak in increases. However, the pressure of excess supply is unlikely to ease, and a sharp rise following an oversold decline is not expected! What do you think?