At the start of 11 month, hog prices nationwide continued to weaken, turning “deeply negative” across the north and south. The signs of stabilization many farmers had been hoping for did not appear as expected. According to monitoring data from 猪好多, the national average price for three-way crossbred hogs on 11 2026, 1 was 9.09 yuan/kg. Prices in most major production regions continued to decline, with some lower-priced areas approaching their annual lows. With the peak season for cured meat consumption approaching, the market can only remain cautiously optimistic about whether hog prices will recover in the fourth quarter.
Looking at market supply and demand, the underlying reason hog prices remain under pressure is still the continued release of supply. Although the breeding sow inventory has continued to decline since 10 last year, making the overall direction of capacity reduction clear, higher production efficiency has also resulted in a large inventory of hogs. This will be reflected in a concentrated release of total hog marketings in the fourth quarter. In addition, hogs from earlier secondary fattening and large hogs held back from sale are expected to be marketed during the cured-meat season. Pork production may reach a new all-time high, directly limiting the scope for a market rebound. Frozen product inventories are also relatively high. If fresh pork prices show even a slight improvement, releases of frozen pork will divert market demand, making it difficult to sustain an upward trend.
Turning to demand, as temperatures gradually fall, preparations for curing and sausage-making are getting underway, which in theory should bring a seasonal increase in demand. This is one of the few sources of support for the market. However, based on experience from previous years and current market feedback, demand from curing is mostly a short-term, pulse-like increase and is unlikely to reverse the broader pattern of supply exceeding demand. At the same time, consumer habits continue to change: demand for homemade cured meat is shrinking year by year, while substitutes such as poultry, beef, and mutton continue to divert pork consumption. The peak-season boost is already weaker than in previous years, and the risk that the peak season will fail to deliver remains.
Market sentiment is divided after several consecutive weeks of declines. Some farmers are under significant cash-flow pressure and have been forced to accelerate the pace of sending hogs to market, further increasing short-term supply pressure. Others are still waiting for the benefits of the peak pickling season, choosing to hold back hogs from sale in the hope that a rebound will help recoup their losses. The interplay between these two situations makes the market highly volatile. Even if there is a brief, modest recovery, it is unlikely to last and will be difficult to turn into a trend reversal.
According to the general assessments of institutions and experts, hog prices are likely to remain at low levels with fluctuations in the fourth quarter. A modest rebound at certain stages cannot be ruled out, but its scope will be limited, and prices are unlikely to return quickly to above the cost of raising hogs. The cautious optimism stems from the ongoing reduction in production capacity and the gradual formation of medium- to long-term support at the bottom, which makes the scope for an extreme plunge relatively limited. However, short-term positive factors are weak and supply pressure is still being released, so it is important not to be blindly bullish or bet on a sharp rally.