Week 2026 of 44 is drawing to a close. In China’s live hog market, prices continued to decline this week, with the price of standard-weight hogs falling back to 9.07 yuan/kg. Although the pace of decline has slowed, supply pressure remains!
According to data monitoring and analysis, the average weight of hogs shipped in China rose to 124.71 kg this week, up 0.22 kg from the previous week. The increase in shipping weights has further strengthened market supply capacity. As for losses in hog fattening, this week, shipments of standard-weight hogs that had been purchased earlier for secondary fattening incurred a loss of 154.41 yuan per head, while the average loss per head for self-bred and self-raised hogs shipped this week was 303.74 yuan. Hog fattening has entered a period of deep losses, and prices are near their lowest level at the beginning of the year. The market is seeing a peak season that has failed to boost demand. Statistics show that hog prices have fallen by more than 11% cumulatively this month, underscoring the ongoing search for a market bottom!
At slaughterhouses, to date, the operating rate is 30.89%, frozen pork inventory stands at 31.6%, the average weight of slaughtered hogs has risen to 94.28 kg, and slaughterhouse losses have increased to 13.5 yuan per head!
At present, marginal recovery in demand remains weak, and operating rates at sampled slaughterhouses are running at low levels. On the one hand, higher average weight of hogs shipped to market has further strengthened pork supply. In addition, high domestic frozen pork inventories and increased shipments of frozen pork have constrained sales of fresh pork. On the other hand, affected by factors including insufficient marginal support from demand, changes in the population structure, and shifts in dietary habits, demand has been slow to follow through, and feedback on the purchase and sale of white-chilled carcasses has been lackluster.
At present, marginal support from demand is limited, and the market has insufficient capacity to absorb hog supplies. As the pace of hog shipments changes, the live hog market has shown a volatile, generally weaker trend. Previously, amid disease outbreaks at pig farms and frozen pork shipments, independent pig farms and secondary-fattening operators were active in accepting sales, while leading group pig enterprises had slower shipment plans. Large-scale pig enterprises continued to increase shipments, putting downward pressure on hog prices. As month-end approaches, some leading pig enterprises have gradually completed their shipment plans, and some have reduced shipments toward month-end.
Amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, hog prices have been relatively steady but weak. However, the market still faces pressure from strong supply and weak demand. Although temporary shipment reductions by group pig enterprises may create expectations that prices will stop falling and begin to rise, hog prices have yet to reach the stage of a cyclical reversal under pressure from both supply and demand.
Based on data monitoring and analysis, affected by slaughterhouses adjusting prices, the price of Duroc-crossbred live pigs is expected to be 9.05 yuan per kilogram on 11 month 1 day. Watch for changes in the pace of market hog releases!
Important reminder: This article is for reference only. The content is sourced from the internet; actual transaction prices for live pigs in each region shall prevail!