- The World Bank forecasts that the global grain price index will rise by 14,1 percent in 2026 and by a further 9,3 percent in 2027.
- Wheat is expected to see the sharpest price increase. The forecast price of benchmark U.S. wheat will rise from 243 dollars per tonne in 2025 to 353 dollars in 2027.
- Grain prices are affected by disruptions to exports through the Black Sea, rising fertilizer and energy costs, and the risk of production losses caused by adverse weather.
The World Bank expects grain prices to rise for two years
After a period of pressure on agricultural commodity prices, the global grain market may enter a phase of marked increases. This is according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, published on 28 October 2026 by the World Bank. Analysts forecast that the grain price index will rise by 14,1 percent this year and by a further 9,3 percent next year. This would amount to a cumulative increase of close to 25 percent over two years.
Importantly, forecasts for grains differ markedly from expectations for the commodities market as a whole. The World Bank forecasts that the overall commodity price index will rise by 2026 percent in 23, but then fall by around 7 percent in 2027. Meanwhile, food prices are expected to continue rising. The forecast increase is 10,3 percent this year and a further 7,2 percent next year.
Experts indicate that the situation is the result of overlapping problems related to production and global trade. High energy and fertilizer costs are driving up agricultural production costs, while disruptions to grain transport through the Black Sea are limiting the export capacity of major producers. Extreme weather events remain an additional threat and may negatively affect harvest volumes in the most important production regions.
Wheat could rise to as much as 353 dollars per ton
Wheat is expected to see the largest price increases among the major grains. The World Bank forecasts that the average price of U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat will rise from 243 dollars per ton in 2025 to 311 dollars in 2026. This represents an increase of nearly 28 percent. Next year, this price is expected to reach 353 dollars per ton, or another 13,5 percent higher.
This is a significant change compared with earlier forecasts. As recently as April, the World Bank expected the average price of wheat to be 253 dollars per ton in 2026 and 260 dollars in 2027. The latest update therefore represents a substantial upward revision of the forecasts, showing how quickly the situation in global markets has changed.
Price increases are also forecast for corn, although they are expected to be smaller. The average price of this grain is expected to rise from 203 dollars per ton in 2025 to 223 dollars in 2026 and 235 dollars in 2027. This represents increases of 9,9 and 5,4 percent, respectively.
Barley and rice are also forecast to become more expensive. The average price of barley is expected to be 164 dollars per ton in 2026 and 172 dollars in 2027. The benchmark price of Thai rice, meanwhile, is expected to rise from 408 dollars per ton in 2025 to 448 dollars this year and 500 dollars next year.
It is worth emphasizing that these are forecasts of benchmark prices on global markets, not predicted purchase prices in Poland. How they translate to the domestic market will also depend on exchange rates, local supply, transport costs, and the export situation.
Higher grain prices, but also higher fertilizer and fuel prices
Forecast increases in grain prices do not necessarily mean an equally large improvement in the profitability of agricultural production. The World Bank points to persistently high energy and fertilizer costs, which directly affect farm expenses.
According to the latest forecasts, energy prices will rise by an average of 32 percent in 2026 year. The price of Brent crude is expected to reach around 91 dollars per barrel, compared with 69 dollars in 2025 year. A decline to 79 dollars per barrel is forecast for next year, but the fuel market situation remains dependent on the course of armed conflicts and the availability of raw materials.
The situation is similar in the fertilizer market. The World Bank forecasts that fertilizer prices will rise by 14,3 percent in 2026 year, then fall by 12,4 percent in 2027 year. Urea is expected to see particularly large increases, with its average benchmark price forecast to reach 510 dollars per ton this year, around 21 percent higher than a year earlier.
For farms, this means that even higher grain sale prices may not translate into a proportional increase in income. More expensive fuel raises the cost of fieldwork and transport, while energy prices also affect grain drying and storage. This last factor can be particularly significant for corn harvested at high moisture content.
The Black Sea and weather could drive prices even higher
One of the most significant risks to the global grain market remains the situation in the Black Sea region. It is a key export route through which grain from Ukraine and Russia reaches, among other destinations, North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Attacks on port infrastructure and commercial shipping could lead to reduced exports, higher ship insurance costs, and higher freight rates.
The World Bank also draws attention to risks arising from the strong El Niño phenomenon. The weather anomalies associated with it can cause droughts or heavy rainfall in different regions of the world, affecting harvest volumes and the availability of agricultural products.
In the baseline scenario, analysts assume that conflicts affecting global commodity supplies will not intensify significantly. However, if further disruptions to grain transport, rising energy prices, and severe weather-related losses were to occur simultaneously, the situation could be much more difficult. In this scenario, food commodity prices in 2027 could be 12 percent higher than the baseline forecast, exceeding the level in 2022.
For grain producers, the coming months may therefore mean greater market volatility. Although forecasts point to higher prices, production costs and the scale of risks related to weather and the geopolitical situation remain equally important. A rise in prices on global exchanges alone does not yet guarantee improved farm profitability.
Source: millermagazine.com, World Bank.2026: Commodity Markets Outlook