In 2026, regional differences emerged in the pace of domestic hog capacity reduction and recovery, and provincial self-sufficiency rates diverged. The pattern of cross-regional hog transport was reshaped: traditional exporting provinces reduced external shipments, while major consuming regions became less dependent on supplies from other regions. Looking ahead to 2027, the radius of live-hog transport across provincial borders may narrow further, regional export flexibility may weaken, the share of nearby allocation may rise, and the structure of interprovincial live-hog flows may continue to improve.
Changes in the ratio of regional inflows and outflows in 2026
In 2026, regional supply capacity changed, and the pattern of live pig market transportation took on a “south-to-north” direction.
Comparison chart of the proportions of hog inflows and outflows in China's key provinces in 2025-2026
Data source: SunSirs
A comparison of live pig transportation patterns over the past two years shows clear differences in inflow and outflow patterns among provinces. On the inflow side, Henan’s inflow share rose from 23.50% to 25.50%, making it one of the few provinces where the inflow share continued to increase. The inflow shares of Hunan, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shandong, Sichuan and other major consumer or balanced production-and-consumption provinces declined, with the sharpest drop in Hunan.
Outflow patterns have been reshaped. The outflow shares of traditional exporting provinces, including Sichuan, Yunnan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi and Jiangxi, narrowed, and the volume of pigs shipped out declined. On the one hand, in 2026, there was no significant price difference between regions, making it difficult to support large-scale research; on the other hand, controls on quarantine certificates also restricted interprovincial transportation. Guangdong’s outflow share remained unchanged over the two years, with production and consumption in balance. Overall, as the pace of production capacity reduction and recovery varies across regions, regional self-sufficiency rates are diverging, dependence on supplies from outside the region in traditional major consumer areas is easing, and the structure of cross-regional live pig movements continues to adjust.
The proportion of interregional outflows may subsequently narrow.
Zhuochuang Information expects the radius of hog transportation in 2027 to narrow, with the proportion of interregional flows potentially slowing. The South’s breeding advantages are expected to persist, and its central role in the domestic hog supply structure remains solid. However, during this round of capacity reduction, the flexibility of shipments from producing regions is also expected to narrow. Traditional major exporting provinces such as Sichuan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi have also strengthened their capacity to absorb local supply, slowing the pace of exports. Guangdong has a large consumer base and strong constraints on local breeding resources, so its long-standing need for incoming hogs remains. However, with supply from surrounding producing regions declining and supporting capacity within the province steadily increasing, the share of incoming hogs may fall further. In the northern region, climate and supporting conditions constrain sow breeding, and capacity recovery is relatively slow. Shandong’s role as a balanced production-and-consumption market continues to strengthen, and its share of incoming hogs continues to decline. Leveraging its transport hub advantages and links between production and consumption in Central China, Henan, together with Hubei and Hunan, maintains a pattern of two-way flows.
Overall, with zoned prevention and control and the “transport pigs, then transport meat” approach continuing to be implemented, alongside a sustained rise in self-sufficiency rates across regions, interprovincial live-pig transportation is expected to decline overall, with shorter circulation distances and a higher share of regional, nearby distribution.