In the fourth quarter of 2026, the average price of white-strip pork will decline quarter on quarter. The curing season will bring only a temporary rebound from low levels, far from enough to support a trend-driven price increase. A weak peak season has shifted from an unexpected outcome to an industry norm.
Third-quarter price situation
In the first three quarters of 2026, the national average transaction price for white pig carcasses with a backfat thickness of 2.5-3.5 centimeters was only 13.82 yuan/kilogram, down 25.62% year on year compared with the same period in 2025, and down 36.25% year on year compared with the same period in 2024, placing it in the historically low range seen over many years.
The largest price spread for white pork carcasses during the year was only 5.86 yuan/kg, narrowing by 24.19% compared with 2025 and by 38.96% compared with 2024. The sharp “roller-coaster” price swings seen in previous years have disappeared. The price curve was completely flattened throughout the year, with a pronounced bottoming-out pattern.
The core reason prices could not rise during the peak curing and pickling season
Supply growth far exceeds demand growth: In the fourth quarter, the supply of pigs at suitable weights fell by just 1.4% month on month, a negligible amount. Meanwhile, farmers are increasingly willing to hold pigs longer to increase their weight. The national average post-slaughter pig weight is expected to rise by 1%-2%, meaning that the same number of pigs sold can yield more fresh meat, directly increasing market supply.
High frozen-product inventories directly limit the scope for price increases: Slaughter companies’ frozen-product storage capacity utilization remains high. They are strictly controlling the proportion of products put into cold storage and diverting more frozen products to the fresh meat market. Large volumes of low-priced frozen products are putting downward pressure on fresh meat prices, directly capping the price of white-strip pork.
Consumer-side growth fell short of expectations: Channels such as cooked-food processing and catering had already completed stockpiling ahead of schedule in the second quarter, and frozen-food purchasing demand shrank sharply in the fourth quarter. The rebound in demand for fresh products driven by cured meats could not fully offset the overall weakness in consumption.
Fourth-quarter price trend forecast
Zhuochuang Information's monitoring data clearly shows the month-by-month trend:
Month 10: The monthly average price of pork carcasses fell by 7%-9% month on month, with the price center continuing to move lower.
11 month: Stockpiling for preserved meat production gets fully underway, prompting a rebound from a low level. The monthly average price rises by 5%-8%, but the peak cannot break through 15 yuan/kg; it can only edge up from the current low of around 12.2 yuan/kg to near 13.2 yuan/kg.
12 month: The improvement in demand quickly weakens, and large pigs accumulated earlier are shipped in a concentrated period. The monthly average price edges down again, with the month-on-month decline staying within 3%.
Practical advice for farmers
Don’t be misled by self-media headlines claiming “prices rise during peak season.” The low-level rebound in 11 month, when passed through to live hog prices, can only reduce the loss per head by a few dozen yuan—nowhere near the industry break-even point. Blindly holding back all the animals in the barn in hopes of higher prices will only mean spending more on feed.
For oversized pigs weighing over 130 kilograms, sell in batches as market conditions allow during the cured-meat demand rebound window in month 11, prioritizing the lock-in of interim gains and avoiding a concentrated sell-off in month 12 at even lower prices.
For farms with a full cost above 14 yuan per kilogram, prioritize culling low-yield, inefficient sows and optimizing herd structure, reserving limited cash flow for high-yield core sows to weather this prolonged period of deep market-bottoming.