The losses are mounting! Weakness continues in the live hog market. As of 10/30, hog prices had fallen for 8 consecutive weeks, and losses for producers kept growing. Notably, at the 2026 International Pig Industry Forum just two days ago, Zhu Zengyong, Chief Analyst for Monitoring and Early Warning of the Full Pig Industry Chain at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, offered his latest assessment: although hog prices remain depressed, they are unlikely to fall further below this year's 4 low in the short term. The market is likely to enter a bottoming-out phase, with a deep further decline unlikely.
Recent market data show that the national average price of live hogs of the three-way crossbreed has continued to decline. Prices have been weak in most major producing regions, with some lower-priced areas falling further. According to monitoring data from ZhuhAoduo, the national average price of live hogs of the three-way crossbreed on 2026-10-30 was 9.15 yuan/kg, down another 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day. Compared with the low of 8.67 yuan/kg in 4, the difference is just 0.5 yuan/kg. In some areas, cash-strapped pig farms have already been forced to send finishing pigs to market.
The market's biggest challenge remains strong supply momentum and a weaker-than-expected recovery in end-consumer demand. However, compared with the market in 4, the industry's fundamentals have changed significantly. Sustained heavy losses in the earlier period prompted an orderly reduction in the breeding sow herd. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that, at the end of the third quarter, the breeding sow inventory had fallen to 3602 ten thousand head, below the normal holding level. The underlying factors behind the contraction in production capacity are gradually taking shape.
In addition, the peak season for cured meat consumption is gradually approaching. Although end-market sales are currently slow and the short-term stimulus is limited, as processors gradually increase their stockpiling, seasonal demand will be released progressively, helping to ease the imbalance of strong supply and weak demand to some extent. According to monitoring by the National Big Data Center for Live Pigs, the wholesale trading volume of white pork carcasses in Beijing on the 10 month 29 day was 58.22 ten thousand kilograms, up 3.12% from the previous day. This is also a key reason why many industry experts believe that the probability of pig prices falling below the low for 4 month is small.
However, experts also caution that “not breaking below the previous low” does not mean an immediate rebound. The period of bottom-range volatility in pig prices during this cycle may last longer than expected. In the short term, the inertia of live pig supply remains, and the risk that peak-season demand will be weaker than expected should not be overlooked. Even if subsequent policy-driven purchasing for reserves and seasonal consumption provide some support for pig prices, they are unlikely to quickly lift the market out of its bottom. What do you think? Feel free to leave a comment and discuss.