As month 10 nears its end, pig prices continue to fluctuate downward, and the market’s earlier expectation of stabilization at month-end has fallen through! According to monitoring data from Zhu Hao Duo, on 28 10, 2026, the national average price of live pigs of the three-way crossbreed was 9.30 yuan/kg, down another 0.10 yuan/kg in a single day. With the decline continuing, many farmers are pinning their hopes on the upcoming peak season for cured-meat consumption. Can this seasonal recovery in demand support depressed pig prices and halt the ongoing downward trend?
By region, prices continued to fall in most of China’s major pig-producing areas, with only a few regions briefly avoiding further declines. At present, mainstream prices for standard pigs in most parts of the country are in the range of 9–10 yuan/kg, while some producing areas have already fallen into the 8–9 yuan/kg range: Xinjiang, 8.56 yuan/kg; Hainan, 8.75 yuan/kg; Guangxi, 8.95 yuan/kg. Currently, only Fujian and Guangdong have prices holding above 10 yuan/kg.
The market’s main focus now is the upcoming period of stockpiling for cured-meat production. Monitoring data from the National Big Data Center for Pigs show that on day 26 of month 10, the wholesale trading volume of pork carcasses in Beijing was 57.84 ten thousand kilograms, up 8.95% month on month; on day 27 of month 10, trading volume was 58.06 ten thousand kilograms, up a further 2.96%. The steady increase in pork carcass sales at the consumer end will provide some support for pig prices.
However, it is important to make a rational distinction: the slight recovery in sales of white strips at this stage reflects only a marginal improvement in consumption and does not mean the curing season has fully begun. Based on patterns in previous years, large-scale stocking for curing is generally concentrated in the middle to latter part of 11月. The current situation is only a temporary, slight boost prompted by localized cold air, with limited additional demand; it is unlikely to directly change the underlying supply-demand imbalance.
Overall, expectations for prices to stabilize at the end of the month have not materialized, and in the short term, hog prices are highly likely to continue bottoming out at low levels. Farmers are advised not to overbet on peak-season market conditions or hold hogs back indiscriminately in hopes of a rebound. Going forward, pay close attention to slaughterhouse operating rates, the pace of frozen-product inventory releases, and shipment plans at large-scale hog farms. Assess market fluctuations rationally and arrange shipment schedules appropriately.