As the end of 10 approaches, the domestic hog market is currently facing an “imbalance” between supply and demand. The mismatch between production and sales is difficult to reverse: supply continues to weigh on the market, while demand offers little support, highlighting strong supply and weak demand. Domestic hog prices have “taken a beating”! During the traditional seasonal peak in pork consumption, the “Golden September and Silver October” period, the hog market has seen a “cliff-like” decline. Reports say that at the beginning of last month, domestic standard hog prices briefly rebounded to around 11.09 yuan/kg. However, the pre-holiday price rise “failed to materialize.” With the peak season falling short of expectations, hog prices gradually retreated. At the end of 9, standard hog prices fell below 10 yuan/kg. Entering 10, standard hog prices briefly rose to 10.25 yuan/kg at the start of the month, but demand came under marginal pressure as supply pressure continued to be released, leaving the market subdued and prices in a “cliff-like” fall!
As of 10 month 30, institutional data showed that the nationalThree-way crossbred pigsThe average price for outgoing lean-type standard pigs is 9.08 yuan per kilogram, down a further 0.08 yuan from yesterday. Pig prices remain weak as they test the bottom, with the average live pig price nearing 4.5 yuan per jin. After falling into the “4-yuan era,” pig prices have continued to decline, down nearly 18% cumulatively from the beginning of last month. The market’s “cliff-like” plunge is becoming increasingly pronounced, with the price level shifting from 11 yuan to 9 yuan per kilogram!
According to the latest news, the live hog market is showing a widespread downward trend across the 28 key monitored regions in the north and south of the country! In the north, prices in the Northeast market, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, have fallen to 8.9~9.2 yuan/kg; prices in the North China market, including Shanxi and Hebei, are 8.9~9.05 yuan/kg; and prices in the Northwest, including Shaanxi and Gansu, have fallen to 8.8~9.2 yuan/kg. In the south, prices in Sichuan and Chongqing in the Southwest are currently 8.85~9 yuan/kg, while prices in Yunnan and Guizhou are 8.5~9.05 yuan. In East China, prices in Shandong and Anhui are 9.1~9.15 yuan, while prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 9.15~9.45 yuan. In Central China, prices in Henan are 9.05 yuan, while prices in Hubei and Hunan are 8.85~9.15 yuan. In South China, prices in Guangdong and Guangxi are 9.05~10.55 yuan/kg!
Overall, the live hog market across the country's 7 production regions in the north and south is continuing to decline in most areas. The number of regions where the average live hog price has fallen below 9 yuan/kg has increased substantially, and prices in the high-priced East China market have generally fallen to around 9.15 yuan/kg, with the market center continuing to move lower! The analysis of the factors supporting the decline in hog prices is as follows:
On the demand side, based on consumer market analysis, prices for white pork carcasses in major domestic cities are currently falling by 0.1 yuan in Beijing. Pork trading in the market is average, and sales are not moving smoothly. In Shanghai, white pork carcass prices are steady at 12~12.2 yuan/kg. Wholesale market arrivals have declined, and trading in white pork carcasses is poor. Some markets still have a certain amount of unsold product! At present, pork consumption is not concentrated. Although the weather is turning cooler and temperatures in the north are falling, demand for pork trading at rural markets in the domestic market has improved. However, urban mobility has declined, tourism consumption has cooled, and demand lacks any clear increase! Domestic slaughterhouses continue operating on an order-based basis, with the operating rate at sample slaughterhouses at around 30.97%. Demand lacks clear support!
On the supply side, regarding shipments from leading and larger-scale pig companies, shipments from pig companies in Northeast China increased yesterday, while those from large-scale pig companies in East China, Central China, Northwest China, and Southwest China fell slightly! However, as losses from finishing pigs have deepened, this week the average loss per pig for farrow-to-finish operations exceeded 300 yuan. In addition, greater temperature fluctuations have increased biosecurity risks at pig farms. With producers continuing to incur losses, the need to recover funds has increased, and independent pig farms are actively willing to sell! Regarding hog deliveries to slaughterhouses, deliveries to slaughterhouses in Northeast China were smooth yesterday, procurement was relatively easy, and market sentiment was bearish. In East China and Central China, shipment progress at group pig companies was average, and slaughterhouse procurement was relatively smooth. In southern markets, some group pig companies had made average progress in completing their shipment plans! At present, market sentiment is mainly bearish or stable, with little confidence in a price rise!
In particular, above-designated-size pig enterprises have relatively high planned marketings for 10 month. The release of hidden production capacity has concentrated pig supplies. In addition, producers lack confidence in the market outlook, increase the weight of pigs marketed, and raise the proportion of medium and large pigs in inventory. The domestic price spread between standard-weight and heavyweight pigs has narrowed, and concerns about an oversupply outlook for pigs and pork remain. This has prompted various market participants to increase marketings!
Based on this analysis, demand is insufficient to absorb supply, the seasonal recovery in demand is weak, and large-scale pig enterprises are increasing marketings during the month. Moreover, the pace of marketings has been slow during the month, putting considerable pressure on the supply side! In the short term, pig prices may continue to fluctuate downward, and this round of declines will very likely push prices below 4.5 yuan per jin! As for forecasts of rising pig prices, the mainstream view is that after mid-to-late 11 month, as temperatures fall further and expectations for southern China’s cured-meat season strengthen, the live-pig market may gradually improve. However, the potential for price increases will also be limited!
As of 10 month 30, institutional data showed that the nationalThree-way crossbred pigsThe average price for outgoing lean-type standard pigs is 9.08 yuan per kilogram, down a further 0.08 yuan from yesterday. Pig prices remain weak as they test the bottom, with the average live pig price nearing 4.5 yuan per jin. After falling into the “4-yuan era,” pig prices have continued to decline, down nearly 18% cumulatively from the beginning of last month. The market’s “cliff-like” plunge is becoming increasingly pronounced, with the price level shifting from 11 yuan to 9 yuan per kilogram!
According to the latest news, the live hog market is showing a widespread downward trend across the 28 key monitored regions in the north and south of the country! In the north, prices in the Northeast market, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, have fallen to 8.9~9.2 yuan/kg; prices in the North China market, including Shanxi and Hebei, are 8.9~9.05 yuan/kg; and prices in the Northwest, including Shaanxi and Gansu, have fallen to 8.8~9.2 yuan/kg. In the south, prices in Sichuan and Chongqing in the Southwest are currently 8.85~9 yuan/kg, while prices in Yunnan and Guizhou are 8.5~9.05 yuan. In East China, prices in Shandong and Anhui are 9.1~9.15 yuan, while prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 9.15~9.45 yuan. In Central China, prices in Henan are 9.05 yuan, while prices in Hubei and Hunan are 8.85~9.15 yuan. In South China, prices in Guangdong and Guangxi are 9.05~10.55 yuan/kg!
Overall, the live hog market across the country's 7 production regions in the north and south is continuing to decline in most areas. The number of regions where the average live hog price has fallen below 9 yuan/kg has increased substantially, and prices in the high-priced East China market have generally fallen to around 9.15 yuan/kg, with the market center continuing to move lower! The analysis of the factors supporting the decline in hog prices is as follows:
On the demand side, based on consumer market analysis, prices for white pork carcasses in major domestic cities are currently falling by 0.1 yuan in Beijing. Pork trading in the market is average, and sales are not moving smoothly. In Shanghai, white pork carcass prices are steady at 12~12.2 yuan/kg. Wholesale market arrivals have declined, and trading in white pork carcasses is poor. Some markets still have a certain amount of unsold product! At present, pork consumption is not concentrated. Although the weather is turning cooler and temperatures in the north are falling, demand for pork trading at rural markets in the domestic market has improved. However, urban mobility has declined, tourism consumption has cooled, and demand lacks any clear increase! Domestic slaughterhouses continue operating on an order-based basis, with the operating rate at sample slaughterhouses at around 30.97%. Demand lacks clear support!
On the supply side, regarding shipments from leading and larger-scale pig companies, shipments from pig companies in Northeast China increased yesterday, while those from large-scale pig companies in East China, Central China, Northwest China, and Southwest China fell slightly! However, as losses from finishing pigs have deepened, this week the average loss per pig for farrow-to-finish operations exceeded 300 yuan. In addition, greater temperature fluctuations have increased biosecurity risks at pig farms. With producers continuing to incur losses, the need to recover funds has increased, and independent pig farms are actively willing to sell! Regarding hog deliveries to slaughterhouses, deliveries to slaughterhouses in Northeast China were smooth yesterday, procurement was relatively easy, and market sentiment was bearish. In East China and Central China, shipment progress at group pig companies was average, and slaughterhouse procurement was relatively smooth. In southern markets, some group pig companies had made average progress in completing their shipment plans! At present, market sentiment is mainly bearish or stable, with little confidence in a price rise!
In particular, above-designated-size pig enterprises have relatively high planned marketings for 10 month. The release of hidden production capacity has concentrated pig supplies. In addition, producers lack confidence in the market outlook, increase the weight of pigs marketed, and raise the proportion of medium and large pigs in inventory. The domestic price spread between standard-weight and heavyweight pigs has narrowed, and concerns about an oversupply outlook for pigs and pork remain. This has prompted various market participants to increase marketings!
Based on this analysis, demand is insufficient to absorb supply, the seasonal recovery in demand is weak, and large-scale pig enterprises are increasing marketings during the month. Moreover, the pace of marketings has been slow during the month, putting considerable pressure on the supply side! In the short term, pig prices may continue to fluctuate downward, and this round of declines will very likely push prices below 4.5 yuan per jin! As for forecasts of rising pig prices, the mainstream view is that after mid-to-late 11 month, as temperatures fall further and expectations for southern China’s cured-meat season strengthen, the live-pig market may gradually improve. However, the potential for price increases will also be limited!