At the start of the fourth quarter of 2026, the domestic live hog market has not seen the boost expected from demand entering its peak season. Instead, prices have continued to probe lower as multiple supply-side pressures converge. Although prices have not fallen below the low recorded in the first half of the year, they have fallen well below the industry's low-price expectations for the second half. At present, the average weight of hogs marketed continues to rise, while the narrowing spread between standard and heavyweight hogs and persistently high frozen pork inventories have kept the market locked in a stalemate of “rising volume, falling prices, and mounting inventory.”
1, Average Weight of Marketed Hogs Continues to Rise, Acting as an “Amplifier” of Supply Pressure
The current decline in hog prices has not effectively slowed the pace of marketings by producers. Instead, it has coincided with a continued increase in the average weight of marketed hogs. According to data monitored by Mysteel Agricultural Products, the price spread between standard and heavyweight hogs continued to widen in mid-8, and the average weight of marketed hogs in China began to rise again after bottoming out. The average weight rose faster in 10. As of 29, the average weight of hogs marketed by large-scale enterprises in China had risen to 125.0 kg, up 1.2 kg from the beginning of the month and approximately 1.7 kg higher than at the same time last year. Even if the number of hogs marketed remains unchanged, the actual supply of pork is being passively increased.
Secondly, demand for large pigs weighing over 150 kilograms gradually increased during the month, while the price spread between standard and fat pigs narrowed slightly against the trend. As of the 29th of 10, the national average price was 9.1 yuan/kg for standard pigs and 10.0 yuan/kg for fat pigs, with a price spread of -0.89 yuan/kg. Although fat pig prices were higher than standard pig prices, the spread was insufficient to cover the increased costs of holding pigs longer. Restocking for secondary fattening remained cautious, and most producers sold in line with the market to ease their own pressure.
The deeper reasons for the increase in average slaughter weight lie in cash-flow pressure on producers and their strategic behavior. On the one hand, ongoing losses have forced some producers to delay sales while waiting for a rebound. On the other hand, during the earlier capacity-reduction process, leading companies kept some pigs at lower weights and delayed their sale. Combined with limited follow-through in consumption, as weather-related demand shifted to higher volumes, average live-pig weight increased relatively quickly. The coexistence of “involuntary holding” and “deliberate delays” meant that supply pressure was not naturally cleared by falling pig prices; instead, it accumulated and continued to weigh on prices.
2, the price spread between standard and fat pigs narrowed, and demand for large pigs provided insufficient support
In previous years, fat pig prices often received support from demand expectations in the fourth quarter ahead of the curing season. This year, however, seasonal patterns have weakened significantly. The current recovery in end-consumer demand is far below seasonal expectations, causing peak-season expectations to go unmet and leaving prices without upward momentum. The price spread between standard and fat pigs narrowed from -1.03 yuan/kg at the end of 9 to -0.88 yuan/kg at the end of 10. Under pressure from losses on fresh pork sales, slaughtering companies have remained reluctant to purchase high-priced large pigs. In addition, live pigs held back earlier were released steadily during the month, leaving supply pressure unabated. The decline in fat pig prices reflects not only insufficient consumer demand for high-fat pork but also increased supply pressure.
The market has formed a negative cycle: weak hog prices → delayed sales at equivalent prices → concentrated sales → continued downward pressure on prices.
3, frozen pork inventories remain high
The average weight of hogs sold represents “flow” pressure on supply, while frozen pork inventories exert “stock” pressure. Although frozen pork inventories held by slaughtering enterprises have edged down from their previous peak, they remain at a historically high level year on year. At the end of 10 month, domestic frozen pork storage capacity utilization was 32.6%, only 0.5% below the high recorded at the beginning of 8 month, and up 13.4% year on year.
High inventories are weighing on spot prices. First, the substitution effect: the release of frozen products directly takes market share from fresh sales. Against an already weak backdrop for end-user demand, this further limits the room for fresh products to move. Second, the effects on cash flow and sentiment: slaughtering companies and traders are under considerable pressure from funds tied up in inventory. During the holiday stocking season, they may instead tend to release inventory in concentrated volumes to recover funds, creating an additional supply shock during the traditional peak demand season. Slaughtering companies are currently suffering heavy losses and are already not very willing to buy hogs. The continued presence of frozen-product inventories leaves them with little incentive to proactively raise purchase prices, further weakening the potential for spot prices to rebound.
4, Market outlook for the fourth quarter
Given the three pressures described above, hog prices in the fourth quarter may mainly fluctuate at low levels, with limited room for a rebound. Although the inventory of breeding sows has declined somewhat, the improvement in PSY means the total volume of market hogs shipped has not contracted significantly. The high average shipment weight means that each live hog supplies more pork than in the same period in previous years, while it will take time and specific market occasions for frozen-product inventories to be drawn down. On the demand side, consumption is unlikely to provide much support in the short term, but may receive a temporary boost later from the curing season and the Spring Festival stocking period. However, given changes in household consumption habits and the substitution effect of frozen products, the expected price support from peak-season demand is limited, with only a temporary, short-lived market rally. Baseline supply, high weights, and frozen-product inventories may continue to weigh on prices.