US pork production is running modestly above year-ago levels, but domestic demand has not kept pace, according to CoBank. The retail pork demand index fell to its lowest level since 2020 ahead of grilling season, making exports critical to clearing supply.
USDA’s Economic Research Service expects 2026 pork exports to reach 7.2 billion pounds, 2.9% above 2025, even after early-summer shipments to Mexico slowed following pseudorabies-related restrictions on Iowa and Texas pork.
Mexico remains the top destination and is especially important for hams, while the opportunity in China continues to fade as its domestic production recovers and consumer demand softens.
Rising corn prices are pushing feed costs higher, compounding the effects of soft demand. CoBank said hams, bellies and cold storage will show heading into the holidays whether seasonal demand can clear product.