Cash flow on the farming side is under pressure, while market participants remain divided over the outlook. Voluntary delays in marketing and involuntary holding of hogs coexist. The current average liveweight of hogs marketed nationwide remains high, and the share of heavier hogs weighing more than 150 kilograms continues to rise. In addition, hogs from the earlier round of secondary fattening have not yet been fully cleared, and the price spread between standard-weight and heavier hogs has not widened significantly. The secondary-fattening segment is shifting from a “price buffer” to a “flood-release channel” for orderly liquidation.
1, the average weight of pigs shipped for slaughter continues to rise, with leading farms seeing faster growth.
According to monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information, from the first week of 8 to the third week of 10, the average weight of hogs shipped nationwide continued to rise, increasing for 11 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 1.33 kilograms, or 1.07%. In the third week of 10, the average shipping weight was 125.44 kilograms, up 0.45 kilograms from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the average purchase weight also rose, but at a markedly slower pace. The weight difference between the two (average purchase weight - average shipping weight) fell from 0.12 kilograms at the end of the previous month to -0.81 kilograms. During 10, producers actively shipped hogs, but demand for large hogs had not yet fully picked up. Oversupply led to unsold hogs and producers being forced to hold them back.
Based on data on average live weights of pigs marketed by farming enterprises of different sizes, the average weight at leading TOP5 enterprises has risen continuously since late 9. Some enterprises have reduced their annual marketing targets and lowered their fourth-quarter marketing plans. Some of these pigs may therefore be marketed later in succession, resulting in a relatively rapid increase in average weight. In addition, leading farms have cut prices to market their pigs, while medium-sized farms and smallholders lack an advantage in marketing. Average weight is not increasing rapidly, but many pigs are being held back and few are being marketed; a concentrated release of pigs later on may directly push up average marketing weight.
National trend chart of average live pig weights at different stages 1
Source: SunSirs
Figure 2 Trend in Average Weight of Hogs Sold by Farming Enterprises of Different Sizes
Data source: SunSirs
2, the widening of the hog-to-fertilizer price spread has largely stalled, and the inventory of large pigs has continued to rise
Compared with the same period in previous years, the fat-to-standard hog price spread was significantly higher after 4 month. Due to policy restrictions on restocking for secondary fattening, coupled with a sluggish market, enthusiasm for restocking for secondary fattening declined markedly, large hogs became less available on the market, and the fat-to-standard spread was higher than in previous years. In particular, high temperatures in 7 month slowed hog weight gains, while overselling occurred at the end of 6 month, causing the spread to widen significantly. However, since mid-8, as hogs from secondary-fattening restocking in 6 month and 7 month have gradually come to market, the widening of the spread has largely stalled and shows signs of narrowing. In addition, hog diseases have been occurring frequently in many regions. Low-priced small hogs have a clear price advantage over high-priced large hogs, while overall demand for large hogs remains weak, leaving little prospect for the spread to widen further.
Additionally, according to Zhuochuang Information’s statistics on the completion rate of hog sales plans at more than 200 large-scale farms, from 5 to 9, the completion rate of sales plans at large-scale farms remained below 100%. From 5 to 7, the main reason was that the widening spread between fat and standard hogs created bullish market expectations, prompting farms to hold hogs back from sale voluntarily. From 8 to 10, the situation was influenced more by oversupply. Meanwhile, in some regions, strict inspections of quarantine certificates made it difficult to transport large hogs out of the province, leading to an involuntary backlog and involuntary holding of large hogs. Since 7, inventories of large hogs have also continued to rise.
Figure 3: Trend chart of the price spread for standard-weight and marked hogs
Data source: Zhuochuang Information
Figure 4 Trend chart of monthly hog shipment plans and large hog inventory
Data source: SunSirs
3, the curing season or delayed start, and the trend in the increase in slaughter volume are similar to 2023
According to Xinhua News Agency, the National Climate Center reported on 10 9 that a super El Niño event had officially formed in 2026 9. During the development of El Niño, based on past patterns, some regions are more likely to experience a warmer-than-usual winter, but extreme rainstorms and snowstorms are also possible. This may be similar to the situation in 2023. For the hog market, on the one hand, if a warm winter occurs, temperatures in 11 will be relatively high, making it unlikely that the curing season will start early. The Spring Festival in 2027 falls in early 2. Taking the curing process into account, the concentrated start may come after the heavy snow solar term in 12. The pace of the increase in demand may be bearish for 11 and concentratedly bullish for 12. On the other hand, localized extreme rainstorms and snowstorms may make it difficult to transport live hogs out of producing areas or bring hogs into consumption areas. Whether hogs are transported out or brought in, this may cause local hog prices to rise rapidly over a short period, in turn affecting the overall national trend. It is estimated that if rainstorms and snowstorms occur in 12, this will still be bearish for 11 and relatively bullish for 12.
However, considering the current forecast of high hog inventories, together with the possibility that some mid-sized leading farms will actively increase production in the fourth quarter to meet their annual slaughter plans, the estimated changes in slaughter volume for 10-12 are a decrease of 8.6%, an increase of 9%, and an increase of 20%, respectively.
Figure 5: Projected trend in hog slaughter volume in the fourth quarter
In summary, slaughter weights have continued to rise, while farms have continued to push back their monthly plans for sales of hogs for slaughter. Combined with the greater difficulty in clearing large hogs without the required documentation in some regions, these factors have driven a continued increase in stocks of large hogs. From the current perspective, overall supply of large hogs in the fourth quarter is relatively ample, and the rise in hog prices in 11-12 may be limited. However, if listed companies cut their annual slaughter plans and thereby reduce total slaughter in the fourth quarter, or if local areas experience extreme rainstorms or snowstorms, hog prices in 11-12 could exceed expectations. At the same time, this could further increase average weight and carcass weight per head, weighing on slaughter volumes. Total hog supply could fall, but slaughter volumes may also rise by less than expected. A significant supply gap in the large-hog market is unlikely in the fourth quarter, and the timing of a trend reversal in hog prices will be pushed back further.