Average slaughter weight continues to rise and stocks of heavier pigs accumulate; the bacon-curing season is delayed, pushing back the window for a trend reversal in this hog cycle
Summary:The hog industry is currently in a transmission gap as capacity reduction works its way through the supply chain; the earlier decline in the number of breeding sows has not yet been fully reflected in the supply of market hogs. Tighter cash-flow constraints for producers are driving both deliberate delays in marketing and involuntary holding of hogs. The national average slaughter weight of hogs has risen for 11 consecutive weeks, while the share of heavier hogs above 150 kg has steadily increased. Secondary fattening has shifted from a cross-cycle supply-buffering mechanism to a channel for clearing existing inventory, and the upward momentum in the price spread between standard-weight and heavier hogs has run out. In addition, an exceptionally strong El Niño event is increasing the likelihood of a warm winter, potentially pushing bacon-curing demand significantly later. Fourth-quarter demand is expected to follow an asymmetric pattern, with “weak demand in 11 and concentrated release in 12.” Under the baseline assumption, supplies of larger hogs will be ample in the fourth quarter, limiting the upside potential of spot prices. Only reductions in marketing guidance by leading companies or extreme weather disruptions in major producing regions could provide a temporary bullish boost. However, such support is often accompanied by further increases in slaughter weight and carcass weight per head, limiting the constraint on total pork supply and pushing the timing of a trend reversal in the cycle further back. Data sources: SunSirs, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, National Bureau of Statistics, National Climate Center
I. Capacity cycle: The reduction in breeding sow numbers has taken effect, while supply inertia is weighing on spot-market recovery
This round of capacity reduction began slowly from a high level. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that at the end of the third quarter of 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows stood at 3602 ten thousand head, 148 ten thousand head below the normal-control upper limit of 3750 ten thousand head, placing it within the green control range; the year-on-year decline was 10.7%, and the inventory fell by 178 ten thousand head from the second quarter. However, the breeding cycle for hogs is approximately 10 months. Commercial hog supply in the fourth quarter corresponds to the relatively high breeding-sow inventory at the end of 2025. Combined with the industry's continued improvement in PSY, higher sow productivity has offset part of the effect of the decline in inventory, leaving supply-side inertia relatively strong.
In terms of total slaughter volume, the national number of hogs slaughtered in the first three quarters of the first 2026 years was 53739 ten thousand head, up +1.4% year on year, with total supply still at a high level. The farrow-to-finish and purchased-piglet fattening segments remained below the cost line, putting pressure on operating cash flow for farming entities and intensifying balance-sheet pressure, which amplified strategic behavior. In a loss-making environment, producers split into two strategies: “accept losses and sell at lower prices” and “increase weight in the hope of better prices and delay slaughter.” This, together with involuntary holding of hogs caused by sluggish sales and transport restrictions, pushed up the weight structure of hogs held on farms, creating the current structural supply pattern of “no reduction in headcount supply, but an upward shift in the weight structure.”
Second, slaughter weight: The average weight has risen for 11 consecutive weeks, with divergence among major players. The inversion between slaughterhouse purchase weight and slaughter weight reflects a bottleneck in clearing heavier hogs.
According to weekly monitoring by Zhuochuang Information, from the 8 month, week 1 to the 10 month, week 3, the average weight of hogs shipped nationwide rose for 11 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% and a cumulative rise of 1.33kg; in the 10 month, week 3, the national average shipment weight was 125.44kg, up 0.45kg month on month. The key structural signal is the inversion between the average weight of hogs purchased for slaughter and the average weight of hogs shipped by farms: the difference between purchase weight and shipment weight fell from 0.12kg at the end of last month to -0.81kg. This indicator reflects slaughterhouses’ sustained preference for purchasing standard-weight hogs and their practice of lowering prices and limiting purchases of heavier hogs. Although farms are willing to ship, channels for absorbing heavier hogs are constrained, so unsold hogs are held on farms involuntarily, further raising the average weight of hogs kept there and creating a negative cycle.
There are significant differences in the slaughtering behavior of entities of different scales:
The average weight of pigs sold by leading groups (TOP5) has risen at an accelerated pace since late 9. The key driver is that some listed companies have lowered their full-year sales targets and reduced their fourth-quarter sales plans, causing pigs originally scheduled for sale during the period to be continually deferred. These delayed sales directly pushed up the average weight at group farms. Meanwhile, to safeguard cash flow, leading companies have adopted a strategy of lowering prices to increase sales volume, squeezing smaller and medium-sized operators on price.
Medium-sized farms and smallholders lack pricing and cost advantages. Under pressure from price cuts by leading players, they have little incentive to proactively market their animals. Marketing progress continues to lag, and the volume of animals held back is larger. Average weight growth is slow in the short term, but the risk of accumulated backlog continues to build. Once this backlog is released through concentrated marketing, it will quickly raise the market’s overall average weight and trigger a supply glut.
Three. Price spread between standard and fattened pigs and secondary fattening: the premium logic shifts, and secondary fattening changes from a buffer into a channel for releasing existing supply
The price spread between standard-weight and heavy pigs is a key indicator for measuring the relative premium on heavy pigs and assessing the profit potential of secondary fattening. A review of the spread’s structure over the year shows that, after 4 month, its midpoint remained consistently above the historical level for the same period. On the one hand, regulatory constraints limited large-scale, concentrated restocking for secondary fattening, keeping the base of heavy pigs in circulation low; on the other hand, a weak market outlook dampened expectations for additional restocking, while scarce supplies of heavy pigs supported the premium. In addition, amid high temperatures in 7 month, daily weight gains in live pigs declined, and a phase of overselling and market clearing occurred in 6 month. The spread widened rapidly in 7 month, as secondary fattening absorbed standard-weight pigs and smoothed temporary supply gaps, serving to buffer market fluctuations.
Mid-month 8 is the logical turning point: pigs from secondary fattening operations that entered the market in 6–7 gradually reach slaughter weight and flow into the spot market in concentrated volumes. The widening trend in the standard-to-heavy hog price spread stalls, and the midpoint begins to narrow. Combined with sporadic regional disease outbreaks, losses per unit of weight gain for standard-weight hogs are relatively manageable, making them more cost-effective than high-priced heavy hogs. Purchasers at slaughterhouses continue to favor standard-weight hogs in the 110–120kg range, while demand for heavy hogs weakens, limiting further increases in the standard-to-heavy hog price spread. Returns from secondary fattening collapse, and willingness to make new restocking purchases is almost frozen. Existing pigs in secondary fattening enter a passive clearance phase, shifting from a supply buffer to a channel for releasing existing inventory.
Zhuochuang’s tracking of the completion rate of planned sales by more than 200 large-scale farms shows that the completion rate remained below 100% from 5–9, with the underlying drivers shifting in stages: 5–7 was a period of proactive holding back driven by expectations. Rising premiums for heavier pigs over standard-weight pigs fueled bullish expectations, prompting producers to voluntarily delay sales to gain from additional weight; 8–10 then shifted to involuntary holding back amid oversupply and circulation constraints. In addition, stricter controls on quarantine documents in some major producing regions obstructed the interregional transport of heavier pigs, causing inventory to accumulate locally. Since 7, the national inventory of heavier pigs has continued to rise, and the risk of inventory buildup has continued to accumulate.
Four. Demand side: El Niño drives climate uncertainty; demand for cured and preserved meat processing is deferred, with slaughtering activity weak initially and stronger later.
The National Climate Center confirmed on 10/9 that an exceptionally strong El Niño event had formed in 2026/9. During the development of El Niño, the probability of a warmer-than-usual winter rises, while the risks of hazardous weather such as localized extreme heavy rainfall, cold waves and blizzards also increase. The climate scenario is comparable to that of 2023.
Based on the temperature sensitivity of preserved meat processing in previous years and an assessment of the time window around the Spring Festival in 2027 (early 2): if the warm-winter baseline scenario materializes, temperatures in 11 will be higher than usual, making it difficult to start preserved meat processing early; the window for concentrated release of incremental demand will shift to after temperatures drop in 12. Under an extreme rain-and-snow scenario, transport from producing regions may be disrupted or shipments into consuming regions may be restricted, potentially causing regional price spikes, but this is still unlikely to change the fundamentals of the demand off-season in 11. The favorable window will likewise be concentrated in 12. The conclusion consistent across both scenarios is that preserved meat demand is unevenly distributed across the fourth quarter: incremental demand in 11 will be limited, while 12 will be the core period for peak-season demand to materialize.
Based on assumptions about the herd structure, delayed slaughter behavior, and the pace of curing, Zhuochuang’s scenario forecast for the year-over-year increase in slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is: 10 month-8.6%, 11 month+9%, and 12 month+20%. The seasonal peak in demand is clearly weighted toward the later part of the period.
V. Market scenario analysis: The baseline scenario has limited flexibility, and bullish factors carry a risk of endogenous backlash.
Baseline scenario: Large hog inventories continue to accumulate, the trend of rising average slaughter weight persists, and demand for cured meat gets off to a late start. The upside for spot prices from 11 to 12 months is limited, making it difficult to initiate a trend reversal.
There are only two potential marginal positive factors:
A leading publicly listed livestock farming company further lowered its annual shipment guidance, with its planned number of head for the fourth quarter proactively reduced;
Widespread rain and snow blocked roads across the main producing regions in 12, disrupting interregional transportation. The resulting contraction in regional supply spread outward, creating a nationwide price surge.
Core risk (backfire effect): Whether due to deliberate delays in marketing pigs or weather-related delays, both will further increase average marketing weight and carcass weight per head. Even if the number of pigs marketed declines temporarily, the reduction in the total volume of pork available on the market will be significantly smaller than the decline in headcount, making it difficult to create a material supply shortfall. If the recovery in slaughter volume falls short of expectations, the only result will be a prolonged period of delayed marketing, pushing the cyclical reversal window further back.
Sixth, high-frequency tracking indicator system
Supply structure: national average slaughter weight, proportion of heavyweight pigs weighing over 150 kg, and price spread between standard-weight and heavyweight pigs;
Main factors: completion rate of planned hog sales at large-scale farms, sales guidance from leading enterprises, and restocking/sales pace for secondary fattening;
Demand and climate: temperatures in the main cured-meat production regions of Southwest and Central China, rain and snow alerts, and daily slaughter volumes for fresh-meat sales;
Expectations and inventory: piglet prices, commercial frozen product inventories, and the pace of government reserve purchases and releases.