As 10 draws toward its end, the domestic live hog market’s traditional “Golden September and Silver October” is nearing its close. During this year’s peak consumption season, pig prices have fallen more than expected, prompting many farmers to lament that “Golden September has turned into Copper September, and Silver October into Iron October.” During the traditional seasonal peak in demand, the anticipated rise in pig prices failed to materialize. Prices for standard-weight hogs have fallen close to their low point at the start of the year, and farming losses have continued to deepen. At present, average losses per head for mainstream farrow-to-finish farms exceed 300 yuan! What’s more, 10 is about to end, with no clear signs yet of a rise in pig prices. The “Second Brother” may keep “falling into the red” through the end of 10…
According to cited data monitoring, as of 10 29, the nationalThree-way crossbred pigsThe average ex-farm price for standard lean-type pigs was 9.16 yuan per kilogram, down 0.07 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices came under pressure and fell, with the market continuing to show a broadly weak trend. Prices were down nearly 27% year on year, reaching a relatively low level for the same period. In addition, according to the Linchi corn quotation of 1.075 yuan per jin,Hog-to-grain ratioAt 4.26:1, hog fattening has entered a stage of “slow, painful losses.” Hog prices are in “the darkness before dawn,” but when the light will arrive remains unknown.
Based on regional feedback, across the 7 production areas in northern and southern China and the 28 key monitored regions, the average price for hogs ready for slaughter is close to 9.15 yuan/kg in Jiangsu. Hog prices in the north and south range from 8.5 to 10.65 yuan/kg. In an increasing number of regions, hog prices have fallen below 9 yuan/kg! In traditional production and sales markets, current prices in the northern regions are 9.05 to 9.2 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning; prices in Shanxi and Hebei have fallen to 9.1 yuan, while prices in Shaanxi and Gansu have fallen to 8.8 to 9.25 yuan/kg. In the southern market, current prices in Sichuan and Chongqing range from 9 to 9.05 yuan, prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have fallen to 9.15 to 9.65 yuan, prices in Shandong and Anhui are 9.2 yuan, prices in Henan are 9.2 yuan, and prices in Guangdong and Guangxi range from 9.05 to 10.65 yuan/kg!
Currently, hog prices continue their “monotonous” downward trend, with the market falling more sharply and prices repeatedly hitting new lows since the second half of the year began! The decline is still driven by an imbalance between production and sales!
On the supply side, although the number of breeding sows continued to decline last year, capacity reduction at major corporate pig producers was slow in the preceding period, and sow productivity improved. The PSY of leading pig producers reached more than 26 head, so the actual number of sows decreased while the capacity to supply market hogs increased! In particular, over the past two months, planned market hog shipments by major corporate pig producers have continued to increase. Earlier excessive optimism in the market has exacerbated the lag in capacity adjustments. During the “Golden September and Silver October” months, the inertia of hog supply is being released, and major corporate pig producers remain under pressure to ship! In particular, citing industry data, Steel Union reports that 173 large-scale pig producers plan to ship 1508.18 ten thousand head this month, an increase of 1.91% month on month!
In addition, at independent pig farms, since the beginning of this month, changing weather and sharp temperature fluctuations have made hog fattening facePig diseasesThe impact is increasing, and confidence in a market upswing is lacking. Falling temperatures are driving weight gain in live pigs. Farms that previously engaged in secondary fattening are gradually bringing pigs to market, while small-scale farms are increasingly willing to sell pigs to recoup funds, further increasing supply pressure!
In terms of demand, it is reported that due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, demand in 9 month recovered slowly. Slaughterhouses stocked up ahead of the holidays, and the operating rate rose to 34.03%. However, after National Day, demand fell back as expected. Changes in the population structure and shifts in dietary habits also contributed to weak pork demand during the month. Slaughterhouse operating rates were unlikely to improve substantially, leaving insufficient demand to absorb market hog supplies. Meanwhile, this month’s planned hog shipments increased, and the average shipment weight rose. Coupled with the high-volume release of frozen pork stocks in China, this further worsened the imbalance between market supply and sales and added to downward pressure on hog prices!
Based on this analysis, with supply and demand fundamentals weighing on the market, domestic hog prices came under pressure and fell. In response to slaughterhouse price adjustments, the market may continue to trend broadly steady with a weak bias over the next 1-2 days. The hog market may continue searching for a bottom. Particular attention should be paid to the pace of shipments at month-end and changes in slaughterhouse operating rates!
According to cited data monitoring, as of 10 29, the nationalThree-way crossbred pigsThe average ex-farm price for standard lean-type pigs was 9.16 yuan per kilogram, down 0.07 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices came under pressure and fell, with the market continuing to show a broadly weak trend. Prices were down nearly 27% year on year, reaching a relatively low level for the same period. In addition, according to the Linchi corn quotation of 1.075 yuan per jin,Hog-to-grain ratioAt 4.26:1, hog fattening has entered a stage of “slow, painful losses.” Hog prices are in “the darkness before dawn,” but when the light will arrive remains unknown.
Based on regional feedback, across the 7 production areas in northern and southern China and the 28 key monitored regions, the average price for hogs ready for slaughter is close to 9.15 yuan/kg in Jiangsu. Hog prices in the north and south range from 8.5 to 10.65 yuan/kg. In an increasing number of regions, hog prices have fallen below 9 yuan/kg! In traditional production and sales markets, current prices in the northern regions are 9.05 to 9.2 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning; prices in Shanxi and Hebei have fallen to 9.1 yuan, while prices in Shaanxi and Gansu have fallen to 8.8 to 9.25 yuan/kg. In the southern market, current prices in Sichuan and Chongqing range from 9 to 9.05 yuan, prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have fallen to 9.15 to 9.65 yuan, prices in Shandong and Anhui are 9.2 yuan, prices in Henan are 9.2 yuan, and prices in Guangdong and Guangxi range from 9.05 to 10.65 yuan/kg!
Currently, hog prices continue their “monotonous” downward trend, with the market falling more sharply and prices repeatedly hitting new lows since the second half of the year began! The decline is still driven by an imbalance between production and sales!
On the supply side, although the number of breeding sows continued to decline last year, capacity reduction at major corporate pig producers was slow in the preceding period, and sow productivity improved. The PSY of leading pig producers reached more than 26 head, so the actual number of sows decreased while the capacity to supply market hogs increased! In particular, over the past two months, planned market hog shipments by major corporate pig producers have continued to increase. Earlier excessive optimism in the market has exacerbated the lag in capacity adjustments. During the “Golden September and Silver October” months, the inertia of hog supply is being released, and major corporate pig producers remain under pressure to ship! In particular, citing industry data, Steel Union reports that 173 large-scale pig producers plan to ship 1508.18 ten thousand head this month, an increase of 1.91% month on month!
In addition, at independent pig farms, since the beginning of this month, changing weather and sharp temperature fluctuations have made hog fattening facePig diseasesThe impact is increasing, and confidence in a market upswing is lacking. Falling temperatures are driving weight gain in live pigs. Farms that previously engaged in secondary fattening are gradually bringing pigs to market, while small-scale farms are increasingly willing to sell pigs to recoup funds, further increasing supply pressure!
In terms of demand, it is reported that due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, demand in 9 month recovered slowly. Slaughterhouses stocked up ahead of the holidays, and the operating rate rose to 34.03%. However, after National Day, demand fell back as expected. Changes in the population structure and shifts in dietary habits also contributed to weak pork demand during the month. Slaughterhouse operating rates were unlikely to improve substantially, leaving insufficient demand to absorb market hog supplies. Meanwhile, this month’s planned hog shipments increased, and the average shipment weight rose. Coupled with the high-volume release of frozen pork stocks in China, this further worsened the imbalance between market supply and sales and added to downward pressure on hog prices!
Based on this analysis, with supply and demand fundamentals weighing on the market, domestic hog prices came under pressure and fell. In response to slaughterhouse price adjustments, the market may continue to trend broadly steady with a weak bias over the next 1-2 days. The hog market may continue searching for a bottom. Particular attention should be paid to the pace of shipments at month-end and changes in slaughterhouse operating rates!