As month 10 draws to a close, the month is about to wrap up! In China's livestock and poultry farming sector, egg prices had previously fallen sharply. The average egg price in producing regions dropped from 5.35 yuan/jin in mid-last month to 3.73 yuan/jin during the month, a phased decline of 30.3%. However, in recent days, prices have moved up as producers held firm on prices and buyers took advantage of the dip. Egg prices in producing and sales regions rose to 4.09 yuan/jin! Unfortunately, since month 10, hog prices have been under pressure, and the market has continued its “sliding down” trend, with prices repeatedly retreating. The “Second Brother” has now fallen back to “before liberation,” with hog prices just 0.53 yuan/kg above the annual low. The market has seen a larger-than-expected decline!
As of month 10 day 29, according to institutional monitoring, the national average for lean-typethree-way crossbredhogs at the ex-farm level was 9.16 yuan/kg (-0.07 yuan/kg). Hog prices remained weak, and the market continued to slide. Compared with 10.25 yuan/kg at the start of this month, hog prices fell by 10.6%, with declines continuing unabated!
In particular, by region, hog prices moved down across the board in the 28 key monitored areas in northern and southern China, with prices falling below 9 yuan/kg in many places. Among the lower-priced regions, Xinjiang was quoted at 8.5 yuan/kg, Guizhou and Hainan at 8.6 yuan/kg, and Shaanxi at 8.8 yuan/kg. Prices in Inner Mongolia and Hunan fell below 9 yuan/kg, while prices in Beijing and Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, and other areas were also set to fall below 9 yuan. Among the higher-priced regions, Guangdong was currently quoted at 10.65 yuan/kg, and Fujian at 10.35 yuan/kg. In traditional high-priced regions, Shandong and Anhui in East China were currently quoted at 9.2 yuan, while prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai fell to 9.15~9.65 yuan/kg. Hog prices in higher-priced regions were also gradually approaching 9 yuan/kg……
At present, hog prices continue to fall, and the market remains in a “peak season that falls short” pattern! Reports indicate that in month 9, hog prices retreated from their peak, falling by 10.19%. In month 10, hog prices came under pressure again, dropping by another 10.6%. Over the past two months, the market has seen a “retaliatory” decline!
On the one hand, since before 9 month, the market had strong confidence that prices would rise around the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. In addition, high temperatures during the dog days of summer slowed weight gain among fattening pigs, increasing the number of small and medium-sized pigs in stock. Guided by market sentiment, sellers withheld sales to control volumes. As production capacity was released in a concentrated manner in 9 month, the pace of weight gain accelerated as temperatures fell, and small and medium-sized pigs were brought to market in concentrated numbers. Large and medium-sized pigs held back from earlier sales, as well as those from secondary fattening, were successively sold off, significantly increasing supply pressure. However, demand at the margin was insufficient to absorb the supply. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, slaughterhouse operating rates struggled to rise, and the mismatch between production and sales meant that leading mainstream pig enterprises did not meet their sales plans for the previous month. Some delayed production capacity came to market in 10 month. Monitoring showed that large-scale pig enterprises increased their sales plans for 10 month by 1.91%. In addition, losses from pig fattening deepened during the month, and independent farms and smallholder pig farms were eager to sell. Sales by large corporate pig producers were slow, but in the latter part of the month, leading mainstream pig enterprises in both the north and south increased sales, and pressure on the supply side remained substantial!
On the other hand, demand provided insufficient support at the margin. Slaughterhouse operating rates rose before the Mid-Autumn Festival, but the increase was limited; after the holiday, demand declined as usual, weakening support from pork consumption. In particular, tourism-related consumption cooled, people’s mobility declined, demand for group meals weakened, and trading in fresh pork carcasses was sluggish. Meanwhile, slaughterhouses successively shipped frozen pork, and the average weight of pigs sold increased, further boosting pork supply. However, as residents’ eating habits changed, slaughterhouse operating rates struggled to rise during the month. As of now, the operating rate at the sample slaughterhouses is 30.94%. Although cooler weather in the north has slightly improved demand, the market’s capacity to absorb pig supplies remains weak!
Based on this analysis, domestic pig prices fell under pressure amid the supply-demand tug-of-war! The market may remain weak in the short term. At this stage, there are few signs of a “reversal” in pig prices. Later, as the weather turns cooler, pork consumption demand gradually improves, and confidence in year-end price increases recovers, pig prices may see a brief rebound in the first half of 11 month!
As of month 10 day 29, according to institutional monitoring, the national average for lean-typethree-way crossbredhogs at the ex-farm level was 9.16 yuan/kg (-0.07 yuan/kg). Hog prices remained weak, and the market continued to slide. Compared with 10.25 yuan/kg at the start of this month, hog prices fell by 10.6%, with declines continuing unabated!
In particular, by region, hog prices moved down across the board in the 28 key monitored areas in northern and southern China, with prices falling below 9 yuan/kg in many places. Among the lower-priced regions, Xinjiang was quoted at 8.5 yuan/kg, Guizhou and Hainan at 8.6 yuan/kg, and Shaanxi at 8.8 yuan/kg. Prices in Inner Mongolia and Hunan fell below 9 yuan/kg, while prices in Beijing and Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, and other areas were also set to fall below 9 yuan. Among the higher-priced regions, Guangdong was currently quoted at 10.65 yuan/kg, and Fujian at 10.35 yuan/kg. In traditional high-priced regions, Shandong and Anhui in East China were currently quoted at 9.2 yuan, while prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai fell to 9.15~9.65 yuan/kg. Hog prices in higher-priced regions were also gradually approaching 9 yuan/kg……
At present, hog prices continue to fall, and the market remains in a “peak season that falls short” pattern! Reports indicate that in month 9, hog prices retreated from their peak, falling by 10.19%. In month 10, hog prices came under pressure again, dropping by another 10.6%. Over the past two months, the market has seen a “retaliatory” decline!
On the one hand, since before 9 month, the market had strong confidence that prices would rise around the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. In addition, high temperatures during the dog days of summer slowed weight gain among fattening pigs, increasing the number of small and medium-sized pigs in stock. Guided by market sentiment, sellers withheld sales to control volumes. As production capacity was released in a concentrated manner in 9 month, the pace of weight gain accelerated as temperatures fell, and small and medium-sized pigs were brought to market in concentrated numbers. Large and medium-sized pigs held back from earlier sales, as well as those from secondary fattening, were successively sold off, significantly increasing supply pressure. However, demand at the margin was insufficient to absorb the supply. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, slaughterhouse operating rates struggled to rise, and the mismatch between production and sales meant that leading mainstream pig enterprises did not meet their sales plans for the previous month. Some delayed production capacity came to market in 10 month. Monitoring showed that large-scale pig enterprises increased their sales plans for 10 month by 1.91%. In addition, losses from pig fattening deepened during the month, and independent farms and smallholder pig farms were eager to sell. Sales by large corporate pig producers were slow, but in the latter part of the month, leading mainstream pig enterprises in both the north and south increased sales, and pressure on the supply side remained substantial!
On the other hand, demand provided insufficient support at the margin. Slaughterhouse operating rates rose before the Mid-Autumn Festival, but the increase was limited; after the holiday, demand declined as usual, weakening support from pork consumption. In particular, tourism-related consumption cooled, people’s mobility declined, demand for group meals weakened, and trading in fresh pork carcasses was sluggish. Meanwhile, slaughterhouses successively shipped frozen pork, and the average weight of pigs sold increased, further boosting pork supply. However, as residents’ eating habits changed, slaughterhouse operating rates struggled to rise during the month. As of now, the operating rate at the sample slaughterhouses is 30.94%. Although cooler weather in the north has slightly improved demand, the market’s capacity to absorb pig supplies remains weak!
Based on this analysis, domestic pig prices fell under pressure amid the supply-demand tug-of-war! The market may remain weak in the short term. At this stage, there are few signs of a “reversal” in pig prices. Later, as the weather turns cooler, pork consumption demand gradually improves, and confidence in year-end price increases recovers, pig prices may see a brief rebound in the first half of 11 month!