Down, down, down—the pig price has plunged “sharply”! 10 is drawing to a close, and the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” seasonal consumption peak is nearing its end. In China’s hog market, prices have followed a pattern of “a peak season that is not a peak, and an off-season that is even weaker.” Since the Spring Festival, pig prices have hit a new annual low, with standard hogs bottoming out at 8.63 yuan/kg. However, during the traditional “Golden September and Silver October,” pig prices have slid, with standard hog quotes falling by 9.23 yuan/kg. The market has seen an “overly rational” decline. So, with pig prices shifting lower and the seasonal upswing “turning point” failing to materialize, what lies ahead for pig prices? The analysis follows:
According to monitoring by an industry organization, on 2026-10-28, the national average ex-farm price for standard lean hogs today is 9.23 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan from the previous day! Hog prices are down 24.6% year over year and have fallen by nearly 10% cumulatively this month. Compared with the beginning of last month, hog prices have fallen by 16.77% cumulatively. During the traditional “golden September and silver October” period, the live hog market has been “high at the start and low later,” with prices following a one-way downward trend. As of now, the mainstream domestic farrow-to-finish model is losing over 300 yuan per head on average, leaving hog farming in a “slow bleed” situation, while the seasonal turning point for a rise in the live hog market remains nowhere in sight…
By region, on month 10 day 28, among the 28 provinces and cities monitored closely across northern and southern China, only in the southwest and south China were scattered market quotations for live pigs relatively strong. In most areas, including the northeast, north, northwest, east, and central China, market conditions were weak. Mainstream live pig quotations fell to 8.6~10.8 yuan/kg, with most quotations around 8~9.7 yuan/kg!
Currently, in terms of marginal demand, yesterday, in the main domestic consumption regions of Beijing and Shanghai, the price of white strips in the Beijing wholesale market fell by 0.2 yuan, with sluggish trading and slow sales of white strips. In the Shanghai market, mainstream white-strip prices were around 12.3 yuan/kg, and some markets had unsold white strips! Currently, support from consumption at the margin is insufficient. Yesterday, the concentrated operating rate of slaughterhouses was 30.73%, up 0.27 percentage points from the previous period. Although the operating rate of slaughterhouses edged up, the increase was limited, and market demand was insufficient to absorb live pigs!
In particular, current monitoring by sample institutions shows that the price of white-stripe pork at the domestic top three tiers is 12.91 yuan/kg. The price spread between live hogs and carcass meat has narrowed further, and losses at mainstream slaughterhouses continue to deepen! With frozen pork inventories high, some frozen pork products are being shipped in greater volumes, further limiting the share of fresh sales and suppressing demand’s capacity to absorb hog supplies! Moreover, as market expectations for the outlook for live hog and pork supplies remain loose, the market temporarily lacks confidence to buy the dip. Second-stage fattening operations lack the initiative to enter the market, limiting their ability to retain standard-weight hogs.
On the supply side, across the main production regions in northern and southern China, yesterday, among large corporate hog producers, shipments decreased in central China and the southwest, while increasing in eastern and northwestern China. In terms of hogs arriving at slaughterhouses, in the northeast, shipments from independent producers and large-scale hog producers were smooth, and slaughterhouses found procurement easy. Some hog producers lowered their quoted shipment prices. In eastern and central China, hog shipments were brisk, but local demand was insufficient to absorb supply, and slaughterhouses frequently pressed prices down. In southern China and the southwest, the pace of hog arrivals at slaughterhouses varied somewhat; in some production areas, hog producers raised their quoted shipment prices slightly. Market sentiment is currently cautious, with bearish and stable outlooks prevailing, while confidence in a bullish outlook remains somewhat weak.
According to institutional analysis, in month 10, hog supply increased rather than decreased. Monthly shipments from major corporate hog producers increased. In the first half of the month, large-scale hog producers were met with active sales from independent pig farms. Fattening operations involving standard-weight pigs restocked earlier were shipped in concentrated volumes, while shipments from corporate hog producers were slow. Supply pressure was relatively high in the latter part of the month. In addition, mounting losses in hog farming increased producers’ need to recover funds, keeping supply levels high.
Based on this analysis, amid the interplay of supply and demand, hog prices have mainly fluctuated downward recently. The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period is now drawing to a close, and the anticipated seasonal turning point toward rising prices has failed to materialize. The market may remain volatile and weak. However, I believe there may be limited room for further declines in hog prices. As demand recovers later on and market sentiment improves, hog prices may still have an opportunity to stabilize and rebound!
According to monitoring by an industry organization, on 2026-10-28, the national average ex-farm price for standard lean hogs today is 9.23 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan from the previous day! Hog prices are down 24.6% year over year and have fallen by nearly 10% cumulatively this month. Compared with the beginning of last month, hog prices have fallen by 16.77% cumulatively. During the traditional “golden September and silver October” period, the live hog market has been “high at the start and low later,” with prices following a one-way downward trend. As of now, the mainstream domestic farrow-to-finish model is losing over 300 yuan per head on average, leaving hog farming in a “slow bleed” situation, while the seasonal turning point for a rise in the live hog market remains nowhere in sight…
By region, on month 10 day 28, among the 28 provinces and cities monitored closely across northern and southern China, only in the southwest and south China were scattered market quotations for live pigs relatively strong. In most areas, including the northeast, north, northwest, east, and central China, market conditions were weak. Mainstream live pig quotations fell to 8.6~10.8 yuan/kg, with most quotations around 8~9.7 yuan/kg!
Currently, in terms of marginal demand, yesterday, in the main domestic consumption regions of Beijing and Shanghai, the price of white strips in the Beijing wholesale market fell by 0.2 yuan, with sluggish trading and slow sales of white strips. In the Shanghai market, mainstream white-strip prices were around 12.3 yuan/kg, and some markets had unsold white strips! Currently, support from consumption at the margin is insufficient. Yesterday, the concentrated operating rate of slaughterhouses was 30.73%, up 0.27 percentage points from the previous period. Although the operating rate of slaughterhouses edged up, the increase was limited, and market demand was insufficient to absorb live pigs!
In particular, current monitoring by sample institutions shows that the price of white-stripe pork at the domestic top three tiers is 12.91 yuan/kg. The price spread between live hogs and carcass meat has narrowed further, and losses at mainstream slaughterhouses continue to deepen! With frozen pork inventories high, some frozen pork products are being shipped in greater volumes, further limiting the share of fresh sales and suppressing demand’s capacity to absorb hog supplies! Moreover, as market expectations for the outlook for live hog and pork supplies remain loose, the market temporarily lacks confidence to buy the dip. Second-stage fattening operations lack the initiative to enter the market, limiting their ability to retain standard-weight hogs.
On the supply side, across the main production regions in northern and southern China, yesterday, among large corporate hog producers, shipments decreased in central China and the southwest, while increasing in eastern and northwestern China. In terms of hogs arriving at slaughterhouses, in the northeast, shipments from independent producers and large-scale hog producers were smooth, and slaughterhouses found procurement easy. Some hog producers lowered their quoted shipment prices. In eastern and central China, hog shipments were brisk, but local demand was insufficient to absorb supply, and slaughterhouses frequently pressed prices down. In southern China and the southwest, the pace of hog arrivals at slaughterhouses varied somewhat; in some production areas, hog producers raised their quoted shipment prices slightly. Market sentiment is currently cautious, with bearish and stable outlooks prevailing, while confidence in a bullish outlook remains somewhat weak.
According to institutional analysis, in month 10, hog supply increased rather than decreased. Monthly shipments from major corporate hog producers increased. In the first half of the month, large-scale hog producers were met with active sales from independent pig farms. Fattening operations involving standard-weight pigs restocked earlier were shipped in concentrated volumes, while shipments from corporate hog producers were slow. Supply pressure was relatively high in the latter part of the month. In addition, mounting losses in hog farming increased producers’ need to recover funds, keeping supply levels high.
Based on this analysis, amid the interplay of supply and demand, hog prices have mainly fluctuated downward recently. The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period is now drawing to a close, and the anticipated seasonal turning point toward rising prices has failed to materialize. The market may remain volatile and weak. However, I believe there may be limited room for further declines in hog prices. As demand recovers later on and market sentiment improves, hog prices may still have an opportunity to stabilize and rebound!