In the third quarter of 2026, hog prices fell significantly. Starting in 7, demand for hogs in the spot market declined noticeably, and this trend continued until the middle to latter part of the holiday period. In mid-8, with the start of the school year approaching and some businesses gradually resuming operations, centralized pork procurement provided a boost to hog demand. However, the continued seasonal lull in consumption in 9 did not sustain an increase in hog prices. In addition, concentrated marketings by large-scale producers and the slow reduction in production capacity earlier on meant that the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays did not provide a meaningful boost to hog prices. At present, hog supply remains in excess of demand. Hog prices may continue to show weakness in the fourth quarter, and a price increase is likely to be difficult.
10 hog prices: “firm first, then weak”
As of the 23, hog prices in 10 first rose and then fell. At the start of the month, holiday-related hog marketings decreased somewhat, providing a short-term boost to prices. After the holiday, the seasonal lull in consumption continued, hog demand fell sharply, and the oversupply situation persisted, sending prices into a fluctuating decline. According to monitoring by Zhuochuang Information, the national average price of lean hogs on 10 23 was 9.38 yuan/kg, down 0.85 yuan/kg, or 8.31%, from the average of 10.23 yuan/kg on 8, the first day after the holiday.
Hog supply remains ample, and the “oversupply” pattern may continue to make it difficult to drive up hog prices.
On the supply side, hog supply remains ample, and the fourth quarter may see a “rise-fall-rise” pattern. The number of breeding sows remains in surplus. As of the end of the second quarter of 2026 year, the national breeding sow inventory was 877.75 ten thousand head, down 0.72% month on month from 5 month. Based on the hog breeding cycle, the effects of capacity reduction may become clearly apparent only in 2027 year, 10 months later.
In 10 month, planned hog marketings by large-scale farming enterprises remained high, and hog marketings may increase again in 10 month. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, in 10 month, large-scale and above-scale hog farming enterprises planned to market 2212.29 ten thousand head, up 2.45% from the previous month. Hog supply continues to increase, while social demand for hogs is unlikely to improve significantly after the National Day holiday. From 11 to 12 month, demand for large hogs improved somewhat, but farming groups may launch year-end volume-push campaigns, and the increase in supply may exceed the increase in demand. The “oversupply” situation in the hog market has formed again, making it difficult for hog prices to rise.
From the demand side, early 10 benefited from the National Day holiday, leading to a certain increase in hog demand. As winter approaches, temperatures in some regions are dropping rapidly. Curing activities may increase to some extent, boosting hog demand and thereby driving up hog prices. However, signs of a recovery in traditional demand have not had a marked impact on hog demand. In addition, the current situation of strong supply and weak demand makes it difficult to reverse the current supply-demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand.
Although hog slaughter volumes have increased since 10, growth gradually slowed in the subsequent period. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, as of 10 23, the national daily hog slaughter volume was 17.65 ten thousand head, down 2.81 ten thousand head, or 13.72%, from the daily slaughter volume of 20.46 ten thousand head on 23 of the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it was down 1.79 ten thousand head, or 9.21%. From 11 to 12, temperatures will gradually fall, and curing activities will gradually begin in some regions. Hog demand may continue to show signs of an increase, but the impact is likely to be limited.
In addition to the supply and demand situation for live hogs in the spot market, frozen pork inventories earlier in the period also put downward pressure on hog prices. Although the frozen pork inventory capacity utilization rate showed signs of declining in the third quarter of 2026, it remained high compared with previous years. This indicates that pork supply in the market remains ample and that the hog supply-demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand, persists.
Hog prices may weaken first and then strengthen in the later market, but reaching the cost line may remain difficult
Looking ahead, the post-holiday seasonal lull in consumption has put some downward pressure on hog prices. However, factors such as falling temperatures later on, the start of demand for cured meat, and Spring Festival stocking may usher in the annual peak season for hog consumption, potentially leading to a moderate rise in prices. Nevertheless, factors such as persistently high hog slaughter volumes, an undiminished frozen pork inventory capacity utilization rate, and the relatively high weight of larger hogs may continue to limit price increases. A rise in hog prices in the fourth quarter remains highly challenging, and prices may follow a “decline-rise-decline” trend, with the average live hog price potentially ranging from 9.8-10.1 yuan/kg.