Down, down, down—pig prices have fallen sharply! 10 month is about to end, and the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” seasonal peak in consumption is drawing to a close. In China’s hog market, prices have followed a pattern of “no peak in the peak season, and an even deeper slump in the off-season.” After the Spring Festival, pig prices hit a new annual low, with standard hogs bottoming out at 8.63 yuan/kg. Yet during the traditional “Golden September and Silver October,” prices slid, with standard hog quotations falling by 9.23 yuan/kg, in what the market described as an “overly rational” decline. With prices now shifting lower and the expected seasonal upswing “turning point” failing to materialize, what lies ahead for pig prices? Here is the analysis:
According to monitoring by industry organizations, today, 28 10 2026, the national average farm-gate price for lean-type standard hogs was 9.23 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan from the previous day! Pig prices were down 24.6% year on year and had fallen by nearly 10% so far this month. Compared with the beginning of last month, prices had fallen by 16.77%. During the traditional “Golden September and Silver October,” the hog market moved from “higher at the start to lower later,” following a one-way downward trend. So far, the average loss per head for China’s mainstream farrow-to-finish farms has exceeded 300 yuan, leaving producers in a “slow bleed” situation. The seasonal upswing in the hog market still appears nowhere in sight……
By region, on 10 month 28, in the key monitored 28 provinces and cities across northern and southern China, only sporadic markets in the Southwest and South China saw stronger hog quotations, while prices were weak across most areas, including the Northeast, North China, Northwest, East China, and Central China. Mainstream hog quotations fell to 8.6~10.8 yuan/kg, with most quotations at around 8~9.7 yuan/kg!
At present, looking at demand on the margin, yesterday in the country's main consumer markets of Beijing and Shanghai, the price of white carcasses at Beijing's wholesale market fell by 0.2 yuan. Trading was sluggish and white carcass shipments were slow. In Shanghai, mainstream white carcass quotations were around 12.3 yuan/kg, with some markets reporting unsold white carcasses! At present, marginal support from consumption is insufficient. Yesterday, the aggregate operating rate of slaughterhouses was 30.73%, up 0.27 percentage points from the previous day. Although the slaughterhouse operating rate edged up, the increase was limited, and market demand was insufficient to absorb hogs!
In particular, current monitoring by sample institutions puts the price of white pork carcasses at the country's top three levels at 12.91 yuan/kg. The spread between live hog and carcass prices fell further, and losses at mainstream slaughterhouses continued to deepen! With frozen pork inventories high, shipments of frozen pork increased in some areas, further limiting the market share of fresh pork sales and suppressing demand's ability to absorb hog supplies! In addition, with market expectations for hog and pork supply remaining ample, the market has temporarily lacked confidence to buy the dip. Secondary fattening operations have been reluctant to enter the market, limiting their ability to retain standard-weight hogs!
On the supply side, in the main production areas across northern and southern China, group hog companies reduced shipments yesterday in Central China and the Southwest, while shipments increased in East China and the Northwest! In terms of hog arrivals at slaughterhouses, shipments from independent producers and large-scale hog companies in the Northeast were smooth, and slaughterhouses found procurement easy; some hog companies lowered their shipment quotations. In East China and Central China, hog shipments were relatively brisk, while local demand was insufficient to absorb them, and slaughterhouses frequently pressed prices down. In South China and the Southwest, hog arrivals at slaughterhouses showed some variation, and some production areas saw hog companies slightly raise their shipment quotations! At present, market sentiment is cautious, with views ranging from bearish to stable; confidence in a price increase is somewhat lacking!
According to institutional analysis, in 10 month, hog supply increased rather than decreased. Large-scale hog producers increased their monthly marketings. In the first half of this month, large-scale hog producers were actively selling hogs, as social farms were willing to sell and the stocked standard hogs intended for secondary fattening were marketed in a concentrated manner. Large-scale hog producers marketed hogs slowly, so supply pressure was high in the latter half of the month. In addition, pressure from farming losses increased, and hog producers had a stronger need to recoup funds, keeping supply at a high level!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, hog prices have mainly fluctuated downward recently. The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period is now nearing its end, and the seasonal turning point for price increases has failed to materialize. The market may continue to fluctuate with a weak bias! However, in my view, there may be limited room for further hog price declines. As demand recovers later, and market sentiment improves, hog prices may still have a chance to stop falling and rebound!