Pig outlook—Oct 22: Lean hog futures bears keeping a tight grip
December lean hog futures on Wednesday fell $1.425 to $65.725, near the daily low and hit a contract low. The lean hog futures market saw renewed technical selling today as near-term charts remain firmly bearish. A price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. Cash hog market and CME cash index prices continue to trend lower, too. The latest CME lean hog index is down $0.38 at $73.02. Thursday’s projected CME index price is down $0.20 at $72.82. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $67.88. Technical analysis: December lean hog futures see the technical posture as overall bearish amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $70.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $62.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $67.70 and then at last week’s high of $69.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $65.70 and then at $65.00.
Pork industry and related news
US Pork: Mexico remains central as Asian buying adds support. Net sales for 2026 reached 37,500 MT, up 3% on the week and 12% from the four-week average. Mexico bought 11,800 MT, followed by South Korea at 7,500 MT and China at 7,300 MT. Another 500 MT was sold for 2027.
Pork exports totaled 32,700 MT, up 2% from the previous week but 1% below the four-week average. Mexico received 15,300 MT, nearly 47% of shipments. The figures show continued substantial trade with Mexico, but the aggregate report does not establish whether restrictions affecting particular pork products have eased. Export demand offers support, although shipments near their recent average do not signal a decisive acceleration.
The immediate market risk is that falling wholesale pork values reduce packers’ willingness to buy hogs just as fall marketings increase. The longer-term concern is whether pork can build enough demand among younger consumers to replace its aging customer base — and do so without relying increasingly on exports to absorb products Americans buy less frequently.
The fall decline has a demand problem underneath it. In its Oct. 20 market assessment, Steiner Consulting, which produces the National Pork Board’s Profit Maximizer, reported December lean hog futures below $67 per hundredweight. Packers had delayed some scheduled slaughter because of slow pork sales. Producer-owned hog carcass weights reached 217.9 pounds, up 4.3 pounds from early September. Those are warning signs: slower processing can leave more hogs waiting, adding weight and additional pork to an already struggling market. The futures quotation is on a carcass basis and should not be compared directly with liveweight cash prices. porkcheckoff.org
Yet this is not a major expansion-driven oversupply cycle. USDA’s October outlook cut projected pork production by 150 million pounds for 2026 and 245 million pounds for 2027. It now forecasts 2026 output at about 27.6 billion pounds, only 0.2% above 2025, followed by 0.7% growth next year. A market struggling to absorb such modest growth points toward inadequate demand relative to available supplies. Economic Research Service
A smaller herd also does not translate proportionately into fewer pounds of pork. Farm Bureau’s October analysis noted that August slaughter was down 2.1% from a year earlier, but production fell less than 1% because dressed weights averaged about three pounds heavier. More pigs per litter similarly cushion the production effect of fewer breeding animals. American Farm Bureau Federation
Several parts of the carcass are failing to provide their usual support. Hog value depends on the combined return from loins, shoulders, hams, bellies and other products. Strength in one category cannot always offset weakness elsewhere.
Steiner’s late-summer analysis identified particular weakness in processing pork. Bellies — the raw material for bacon — and lean trimmings were generating less support relative to the overall cutout than in earlier years. It also reported July-end frozen ham inventories 23.5% above a year earlier, illustrating why buyers could be reluctant to accumulate additional supplies. These are earlier indicators of the imbalance, rather than current October inventory figures. porkcheckoff.org
The economic transmission is straightforward: weaker meat revenue limits what a processor can pay for hogs while covering labor, processing, transportation and other costs. Formula-priced hogs can also transmit weakening pork values back to producers. A widening gap between retail and farm prices does not, by itself, establish that packers are enjoying strong profits.
Global competition compounds the problem. In September, Steiner reported that weak Chinese demand and ample international supplies were intensifying competition among major exporters. Hams and picnic shoulders are particularly exposed because export markets absorb nearly half of their combined US production. Weak overseas bids therefore affect important portions of the carcass, even when domestic retail movement holds up. porkcheckoff.org
Exports have not collapsed across the board. January–August US pork exports were still 1% above a year earlier in volume, with value essentially unchanged. But momentum deteriorated: August shipments fell 6% to 222,243 metric tons, while value declined 12% to $606.3 million. Growth in Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean was insufficient to offset weakness in several larger markets. usmef.org
Mexico presents three distinct problems: a past sanitary disruption, softer current buying and trade-remedy uncertainty.
The sanitary issue began after the April 30 detection of pseudorabies virus antibodies in five Iowa boars. Mexico restricted a range of US pork offal and variety meats. The disruption was concentrated in these products, rather than a blanket ban on all US pork muscle cuts. May variety-meat shipments to Mexico dropped 80% from a year earlier to 3,157 metric tons. usmef.org
Recent trade weakness also reflects softer Mexican demand and increased domestic pork availability, independent of the earlier offal restrictions.
The product scope and distinctions are documented by USMEF and the US Department of Commerce. feedstuffs.com
The offal restrictions were lifted in July. They should not be described as an ongoing October ban. USMEF estimated that $6 million to $7 million in weekly trade had been interrupted while restrictions applied. Removing them reopened access for both new production and backed-up product, but commercial flows did not immediately normalize. feedstuffs.com
These products matter disproportionately because their best-paying customers often are abroad. Losing a buyer for stomachs, skins or head meat reduces the total value recovered from each animal; stronger US pork-chop sales cannot necessarily replace that revenue.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s own pork production has rebounded and ham demand has softened. August US pork exports to Mexico fell 12% to 90,560 metric tons, with value down 22% to $197.1 million. January–August shipments were 3% below the prior year in volume. usmef.org
The leg-and-shoulder investigations, initiated in December 2025, are a separate concern. Mexican producers alleged dumping and subsidies, potentially exposing covered products to additional duties. The proceedings should be treated as trade uncertainty, not as proof of an implemented tariff causing today’s decline. trade.gov
Washington politics now overlaps the Mexico problem. On Tuesday, Oct. 20, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Iowa’s entire congressional delegation urged Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to protect pork producers in negotiations with Mexico, warning that the dispute over Mexican tomatoes is putting a critical export market at risk. Sen. Joni Ernst and Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Ashley Hinson, Zach Nunn and Randy Feenstra — all Iowa Republicans — signed the letter. grassley.senate.gov
The lawmakers linked Mexico’s December 2025 antidumping investigation into US pork legs and shoulders to Washington’s July 2025 termination of the US/Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement. “The looming threat of retaliation from our number one export market creates a chilling effect on the pork industry,” they wrote, also citing existing pressure from California’s Proposition 12. The letter described an ongoing investigation and threatened retaliation; it did not announce a new blanket Mexican tariff on US pork, consistent with the absence of a final duty noted above. grassley.senate.gov
The export stakes are substantial. The delegation cited more than $2.85 billion in US pork exports to Mexico in 2025 and annual shipments exceeding 1 million metric tons, and said export value had more than doubled over six years under USMCA. It also pointed to consumers and tomato growers: tomato prices rose 6.8% from September 2025 to September 2026, versus 3.7% overall inflation, and some Iowa tomato businesses operate in both countries. The letter asked negotiators to consider the effects of seasonal produce disputes on those businesses and on pig farmers. grassley.senate.gov
National Pork Producers Council President Rob Brenneman endorsed the effort, saying the investigation creates uncertainty for producers dependent on Mexico and urging preservation of stable trade. grassley.senate.gov
This was a pointed warning from farm-state Republicans: protecting one agricultural sector can expose another to retaliation. The practical request is to make preservation of pork access a priority in the Mexico negotiations — an outcome that would remove one of the trade-remedy uncertainties hanging over hams and shoulders.
Younger consumers present a structural challenge. National Pork Board research has identified an aging fresh-pork customer base, with baby boomers historically important buyers and younger generations purchasing fresh pork less frequently. Its 2024 research summary warned that the industry needed to make pork more relevant to younger households. That finding concerns purchasing patterns; it does not mean young people universally reject bacon, sausage, barbecue or pork in restaurant dishes. porkcheckoff.org
The Board’s Consumer Connect research identifies specific barriers:
Millennials and Gen Z rate fresh pork’s taste and flavor below most other proteins.
Some younger shoppers lack confidence about what to prepare with pork.
In its 2023 research, 46% of millennials viewed pork as an indulgent choice.
Some 57% expressed concern about illness from undercooked pork. porkcheckoff.org
The commercial implication is significant. A low price offers limited encouragement if a shopper expects a disappointing meal, does not know how to prepare the cut or doubts that it fits everyday eating goals. The industry must address the meal experience as well as the price.
Why hasn’t expensive beef delivered a bigger payoff for pork? The price advantage is real. September BLS averages put boneless pork chops at $4.55 per pound, compared with $6.79 for ground beef and $14.11 for boneless USDA Choice sirloin steak. These are different products, not interchangeable measures of eating quality or yield, but they demonstrate pork’s substantial checkout-price advantage. bls.gov
The evidence suggests several reasons that advantage has not translated into stronger hog prices.
First, consumers buy familiar meals, not simply the cheapest protein. Someone planning hamburgers or a steak dinner does not necessarily substitute a pork chop when beef becomes expensive. Pork must offer an appealing alternative that fits the same cooking occasion.
Second, chicken competes for the value-conscious shopper. Steiner specifically concluded that abundant chicken supplies undermined the support fresh pork had been expected to receive from expensive ground beef. Thus, pork faces competition both from consumers willing to keep paying for beef and from shoppers moving toward economical poultry. porkcheckoff.org
Third, retail prices do not move in lockstep with farm prices. Processing, packaging, freight, store labor and merchandising remain part of the retail bill. In September, average boneless-chop prices were down 4.2% year over year and all pork chops were down 3%—useful discounts, but not necessarily enough to change established purchasing habits. bls.gov
Fourth, the popular processed products cannot carry the entire industry. Steiner has raised concerns about negative attention toward processed meats, but explicitly cautioned that its importance relative to processing costs and foodservice inflation is uncertain. It would be premature to attribute the hog downturn primarily to ultra-processed-food concerns or weight-loss medications. porkcheckoff.org
The Pork Board is trying to change both the message and the product offering. Its “Taste What Pork Can Do” campaign, launched in May 2025, targets millennials and Gen Z with an emphasis on flavor, versatility and practical meal ideas. The accompanying “Explora Todo El Gusto Del Pork” effort connects pork with Hispanic food traditions and younger consumers. porkcheckoff.org
The work extends beyond advertising. The Board is collaborating with retailers on smaller, air-fryer-friendly offerings; ground pork; store promotions; shopping websites and apps; and influencer content. The aim is to make pork easier to recognize as a convenient dinner choice at the point of purchase. porkcheckoff.org
Ground pork is especially promising because it can fit familiar formats such as bowls, tacos and burgers. The Board reports that millennials and Gen Z are purchasing it more frequently and that its retail volume has outperformed total pork. One practical example is the Iowa Pork Producers Association’s work with Fareway to introduce fresh-ground Boston butt pork burgers across 143 stores. These are encouraging category-level developments, but they do not yet demonstrate a broad recovery in pork demand. porkcheckoff.org
Other efforts include introducing cuts such as the coppa steak and using recipes that show a finished meal rather than expecting shoppers to start with knowledge of a particular primal cut. porkcheckoff.org
The test is repeat purchases and stronger value across the carcass. Campaign awareness, social-media views and promotional sales are useful intermediate measures. Producer returns ultimately require more households buying pork more frequently, with gains large enough to improve wholesale values. Ground-pork growth is helpful, but it cannot alone solve weak demand for hams, bellies and export-dependent variety meats.
Further near-term downside remains possible, but a continuous decline is not inevitable. Steiner’s latest outlook anticipates possible stabilization in late winter or early spring as seasonal supplies ease. For now, weak demand and the cost of storing excess product remain obstacles. porkcheckoff.org
The clearest signs of improvement would be steadier ham and belly values, fewer delayed hog deliveries, stabilizing carcass weights, stronger Mexican purchases and sustained retail volume gains without ever-deeper discounts. Until those emerge, expensive beef provides pork with an opportunity — but the industry still has to convert that opportunity into meals consumers choose repeatedly.
Market outlook: The pork cutout plunged $4.03 to $74.50 at midweek, led by a $12.01 drop in the belly primal to its lowest level since 2023. The recent price weakness raises expectations that Friday’s Cold Storage report will show a sizable buildup in pork belly stocks. Analysts say cash prices are likely to trend lower through year-end. While some analysts say it is too early to turn bullish, they conclude downside risk is diminishing.
Iowa lawmakers sound alarm on Mexico
Iowa’s congressional delegation is asking the Trump administration to consider Iowa’s pork producers when conducting trade talks with Mexico, Agri-Pulse reported. Mexico launched a trade investigation into the US pork industry after the US ended an agreement last year that suspended antidumping duties on imports of fresh Mexican tomatoes. “The looming threat of retaliation from our number one export market creates a chilling effect on the pork industry that already faces headwinds domestically due to state regulations like California’s Proposition 12,” the delegation, led by Republican Sen. Charles Grassley, wrote.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
December lean hog futures--$63.00 to $68.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
December soybean meal futures--$340.00 to $360.00, and a sideways-lower bias
December corn futures--$4.50 to $4.80 and a sideways-lower bias