As 10 draws to a close, China’s livestock and poultry farming sector is seeing pig prices fall under pressure! Reportedly, early last month, supported by the back-to-school season, pig prices briefly surged to 11.09 yuan/ton. With the two holidays approaching, many farmers thought the rise in pig prices was just getting started, only to find that it was the “grand finale.” Last month, pig prices fell under pressure, with the market on a downward trend. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, slaughterhouses stocked up in bulk, but pig prices still failed to stop falling and rebound. Instead, by month-end, quotes for standard-weight pigs had dropped to 9.96 yuan/kg! Last month, pig prices failed to live up to the peak season. This month, the market has remained sluggish. Although quotes for standard-weight pigs edged up early in the month, rising to 10.25 yuan/kg, the imbalance between production and sales became more pronounced during the month, intensifying the one-way downward trend in pig prices. Currently, quotes for standard-weight pigs have fallen to 9.33 yuan/kg……
The logic supporting the decline in hog prices is that the hog market is showing a pattern of “one side gaining as the other loses”! On the one hand, in 10 month, hog supply increased month over month. With sow inventories at a high level in the preceding period and production efficiency improving, the supply of market-ready hogs of suitable weight increased month over month this month. In the previous month, demand was insufficient to keep pace, and hog shipment plans in producing regions were not completed as expected. Some shipments were adjusted to this month. In actual terms, shipments by large-scale hog enterprises edged up in 10 month. Zhuochuang data monitoring showed that the shipment plan for 10 month increased by 2.45% month over month, so supply pressure increased rather than eased! In particular, as the weather cooled during the month, hogs gained weight faster, further strengthening pork supply capacity. Meanwhile, with the breeding sector suffering long-term losses and facing financial difficulties, there was strong demand to realize funds and replenish cash, and willingness to sell was relatively high, further intensifying supply pressure!
On the other hand, demand feedback fell significantly! The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays provided limited marginal support for demand, and slaughterhouses struggled to increase their pre-holiday operating rates. However, consumption in 9 month was still mainly showing a trend toward recovery! But in 10 month, marginal demand was sluggish. After the National Day holiday, consumption retreated as expected; household demand was subdued, and urban foot traffic declined. In addition, as dietary patterns changed and pork supply in the market was ample, downstream market participants generally operated cautiously. Orders at slaughterhouses shrank, and frozen pork was shipped out successively, further limiting any recovery in operating rates. Operating rates at sampled slaughterhouses remained low, and demand follow-through deteriorated further!
Based on this analysis, as supply and demand move in opposite directions, hog prices are trending downward! However, as the end of the month approaches, after live hog prices fall to 9.33 yuan/kg, support at the market bottom may gradually emerge! At month-end, large-scale hog producers may be inclined to hold prices firm, and market participants engaged in secondary fattening may become more active, providing weak support for hog prices! Following price adjustments by slaughterhouses, the expected price for three-way crossbred live hogs on 10 month 27 is 9.29 yuan/kg. The market is expected to remain mostly stalled near the bottom; attention should be paid to changes in the pace of buying and selling going forward!
Important reminder: This article is for reference only, and its content is sourced from the internet. The actual transaction prices of live pigs in each region shall prevail!