As the month of 10 draws to a close, the domestic livestock and poultry farming sector is seeing the hog market under downward pressure. It is reported that early last month, supported by the start of the school term, hog prices briefly surged to 11.09 yuan/ton. With the two holidays approaching, many farmers thought the rise in hog prices was just getting started, only to find that it was actually the “grand finale.” Last month, hog prices fell under pressure, with the market on a downward trend. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, slaughterhouses stockpiled supplies, but hog prices still failed to stop falling and rebound. Instead, by the end of the month, the quoted price for standard-weight hogs had dropped to 9.96 yuan/kg! Last month, hog prices failed to strengthen during the peak season. This month, the market has remained sluggish. Although prices for standard-weight hogs edged up early in the month, with quotes reaching 10.25 yuan/kg, the imbalance between production and sales became more pronounced during the month, intensifying the one-way downward trend in hog prices. Currently, the quoted price for standard-weight hogs has fallen to 9.33 yuan/kg...
The logic behind falling hog prices is that the hog market is showing a “one side wanes as the other waxes” pattern. On the one hand, in month 10, hog supply increased month over month. Sow inventories had been high in the preceding period, and production efficiency had improved, so the supply of market-ready hogs at suitable weights increased month over month this month. Last month, demand failed to follow through, and hog farms in production areas did not meet their planned marketings. Some of this output was shifted to this month. In fact, marketings by major-scale hog enterprises rose slightly in month 10. According to monitoring data from Zhuochuang, the marketing plan for month 10 increased by 2.45% month over month, so supply pressure increased rather than eased! In particular, as the weather cooled during the month, hogs gained weight more quickly, further strengthening pork supply capacity. Meanwhile, after enduring long-term losses, producers faced cash-flow difficulties and a strong need to sell and replenish funds, so their willingness to sell was relatively high, further intensifying supply pressure!
On the other hand, demand has fallen significantly! Demand received limited marginal support during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Slaughterhouse operating rates were slow to rise ahead of the holidays. However, consumption in 9 showed a general trend toward recovery! In 10, however, marginal demand was sluggish. After the National Day holiday, consumption fell back due to inertia; household demand was weak, and urban mobility declined. In addition, as dietary patterns changed, the market had an ample pork supply. Downstream markets were mostly cautious about resuming operations, slaughterhouse orders shrank, and frozen pork was gradually shipped out, further limiting the recovery in operating rates. Operating rates at sampled slaughterhouses hovered at low levels, and demand follow-through deteriorated further!
Accordingly, as supply and demand moved in opposite directions, hog prices slid downward! However, as the month-end approaches, after live hog quotations fell to 9.33 yuan/kg, support at the market bottom may gradually take shape! At month-end, major hog producers may be inclined to hold prices firm, and market participants engaged in secondary fattening may become more active, providing weak support for hog prices! Given slaughterhouse price adjustments, it is expected that on 10 27,Three-way crossbred pigsLive pig prices are 9.29 yuan/kg. The market is mainly characterized by a stalemate at the bottom; watch for changes in the pace of buying and selling going forward!
The logic behind falling hog prices is that the hog market is showing a “one side wanes as the other waxes” pattern. On the one hand, in month 10, hog supply increased month over month. Sow inventories had been high in the preceding period, and production efficiency had improved, so the supply of market-ready hogs at suitable weights increased month over month this month. Last month, demand failed to follow through, and hog farms in production areas did not meet their planned marketings. Some of this output was shifted to this month. In fact, marketings by major-scale hog enterprises rose slightly in month 10. According to monitoring data from Zhuochuang, the marketing plan for month 10 increased by 2.45% month over month, so supply pressure increased rather than eased! In particular, as the weather cooled during the month, hogs gained weight more quickly, further strengthening pork supply capacity. Meanwhile, after enduring long-term losses, producers faced cash-flow difficulties and a strong need to sell and replenish funds, so their willingness to sell was relatively high, further intensifying supply pressure!
On the other hand, demand has fallen significantly! Demand received limited marginal support during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Slaughterhouse operating rates were slow to rise ahead of the holidays. However, consumption in 9 showed a general trend toward recovery! In 10, however, marginal demand was sluggish. After the National Day holiday, consumption fell back due to inertia; household demand was weak, and urban mobility declined. In addition, as dietary patterns changed, the market had an ample pork supply. Downstream markets were mostly cautious about resuming operations, slaughterhouse orders shrank, and frozen pork was gradually shipped out, further limiting the recovery in operating rates. Operating rates at sampled slaughterhouses hovered at low levels, and demand follow-through deteriorated further!
Accordingly, as supply and demand moved in opposite directions, hog prices slid downward! However, as the month-end approaches, after live hog quotations fell to 9.33 yuan/kg, support at the market bottom may gradually take shape! At month-end, major hog producers may be inclined to hold prices firm, and market participants engaged in secondary fattening may become more active, providing weak support for hog prices! Given slaughterhouse price adjustments, it is expected that on 10 27,Three-way crossbred pigsLive pig prices are 9.29 yuan/kg. The market is mainly characterized by a stalemate at the bottom; watch for changes in the pace of buying and selling going forward!