As 10 draws to a close, domestic live pig prices have continued to fall in recent days. Amid an imbalance between supply and demand and a mismatch between production and sales, prices remain under downward pressure and are adjusting weakly. However, over the past two days, as live pig pricesLive pig pricesThe market continues to probe for a bottom, with slightly divergent trends. Hog prices have surged in many regions. Can prices now “reverse,” with a month-end “tail-end rally” for hogs imminent? The analysis is as follows:
According to data monitoring, due to slaughterhouses adjusting their prices, it is expected that, on 10 month 26, nationwideThree-way crossbredLean meat-type pigPig pricesThe average live hog price stands at 9.33 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices remain weak as they “bottom out,” falling nearly 21% year over year. The market has been “sluggish” this month. In particular, compared with 10.25 yuan/kg at the start of the month, hog prices have fallen by a cumulative 8.98% this month. The live hog market has entered the “4-yuan era,” with prices hitting a new low since the second half of the year!
By region, on 10/26, slaughterhouse quotes across the 28 key monitored regions in the northern and southern markets showed a tug-of-war between rises and falls! The national average live pig price was close to the prices in Jiangxi and Heilongjiang, at 9.3 yuan/kg. Across the northern and southern regions, live pig quotes hovered between 8.55 and 10.8 yuan/kg! Among them, Guangdong and Fujian had the highest quotes, with standard-weight pig quotes at 10.8 yuan and 10.6 yuan/kg, respectively; Xinjiang and Hainan had the lowest quotes, with live pig priceslive pig pricesBetween 8.55 yuan and 8.6 yuan per kilogram. Across China's northern and southern regions, mainstream live hog quotations are around 8.8~9.9 yuan per kilogram, and hog prices remain in a “bottoming out” pattern!
In particular, looking at traditional production and sales markets, in northern regions—the Northeast, North China, and Northwest—live hog quotations are generally 9.1~9.55 yuan per kilogram, with limited regional price differences; Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning quote 9.1~9.3 yuan per kilogram. In the Southwest, East China, Central China, and South China, mainstream live hog quotations are 9~9.9 yuan per kilogram; Sichuan and Chongqing quote 8.95~9 yuan, Shandong and Anhui quote 9.6 yuan, and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai quote 9.65~9.9 yuan. Henan quotes 9.55 yuan, Hunan quotes 9.2 yuan, and Guangdong quotes 10.8 yuan per kilogram!
Therefore, on the 10th day of the 26th month, the hog market was mainly weak amid fluctuations. Prices rose and fell across northern and southern markets: prices were relatively firm in many parts of Northeast and North China, while quotes were relatively weak in many parts of Southwest, Northwest, and East China. The hog market remained locked in a stalemate!
Currently, support for hog prices at the bottom has strengthened slightly. On the one hand, the average hog price has continued to fall, deepening losses for producers. At present, mainstream large-scale hog enterprises that breed and raise their own pigs are losing around 260 yuan per head, and producers may become more resistant to price cuts. Also, with month-end approaching, some leading hog enterprises may gradually complete their sales plans, and some may try reducing sales volume to drive prices higher. On the other hand, consumption is recovering slowly at the margin. Temperatures are gradually cooling in northern and southern regions, and colder weather in the north may gradually improve the follow-through in household demand. In addition, the traditional peak season for curing meat in the south is drawing near, and the market still has some confidence in a higher outlook. In some production areas in the north and south, there are still occasional instances of secondary fattening operations entering the market, providing some support for hog prices!
However, from a supply-and-demand fundamentals perspective, this month the hog market is under pressure from a mismatch between production and sales! On the one hand, supply is high. This month, leading hog enterprises have increased their planned slaughter volumes, with monitored month-on-month growth in slaughter volume of 1.91% according to SteelHome data. In addition, the average weight of hogs sent to slaughter increased during the month, disease outbreaks were frequent at pig farms, and producers were more willing to send hogs to slaughter, leaving ample supply capacity. On the other hand, the current seasonal peak in demand has been weaker than expected. Downstream market purchases and sales of white-stripped pork have increased only slightly. Moreover, amid high frozen pork inventories, frozen products are being released onto the market in succession, limiting slaughterhouses' capacity to take in hogs. Purchases and sales of fresh white-stripped pork have been sluggish!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand and with month-end approaching, the hog price center of gravity has continued to move lower. Market sentiment has gradually turned cautious, with both bullish and bearish views present. Close attention should be paid to changes in the pace at which large-scale hog enterprises send hogs to slaughter! In theory, hog prices are still expected to show a “month-end uptick”!
According to data monitoring, due to slaughterhouses adjusting their prices, it is expected that, on 10 month 26, nationwideThree-way crossbredLean meat-type pigPig pricesThe average live hog price stands at 9.33 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices remain weak as they “bottom out,” falling nearly 21% year over year. The market has been “sluggish” this month. In particular, compared with 10.25 yuan/kg at the start of the month, hog prices have fallen by a cumulative 8.98% this month. The live hog market has entered the “4-yuan era,” with prices hitting a new low since the second half of the year!
By region, on 10/26, slaughterhouse quotes across the 28 key monitored regions in the northern and southern markets showed a tug-of-war between rises and falls! The national average live pig price was close to the prices in Jiangxi and Heilongjiang, at 9.3 yuan/kg. Across the northern and southern regions, live pig quotes hovered between 8.55 and 10.8 yuan/kg! Among them, Guangdong and Fujian had the highest quotes, with standard-weight pig quotes at 10.8 yuan and 10.6 yuan/kg, respectively; Xinjiang and Hainan had the lowest quotes, with live pig priceslive pig pricesBetween 8.55 yuan and 8.6 yuan per kilogram. Across China's northern and southern regions, mainstream live hog quotations are around 8.8~9.9 yuan per kilogram, and hog prices remain in a “bottoming out” pattern!
In particular, looking at traditional production and sales markets, in northern regions—the Northeast, North China, and Northwest—live hog quotations are generally 9.1~9.55 yuan per kilogram, with limited regional price differences; Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning quote 9.1~9.3 yuan per kilogram. In the Southwest, East China, Central China, and South China, mainstream live hog quotations are 9~9.9 yuan per kilogram; Sichuan and Chongqing quote 8.95~9 yuan, Shandong and Anhui quote 9.6 yuan, and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai quote 9.65~9.9 yuan. Henan quotes 9.55 yuan, Hunan quotes 9.2 yuan, and Guangdong quotes 10.8 yuan per kilogram!
Therefore, on the 10th day of the 26th month, the hog market was mainly weak amid fluctuations. Prices rose and fell across northern and southern markets: prices were relatively firm in many parts of Northeast and North China, while quotes were relatively weak in many parts of Southwest, Northwest, and East China. The hog market remained locked in a stalemate!
Currently, support for hog prices at the bottom has strengthened slightly. On the one hand, the average hog price has continued to fall, deepening losses for producers. At present, mainstream large-scale hog enterprises that breed and raise their own pigs are losing around 260 yuan per head, and producers may become more resistant to price cuts. Also, with month-end approaching, some leading hog enterprises may gradually complete their sales plans, and some may try reducing sales volume to drive prices higher. On the other hand, consumption is recovering slowly at the margin. Temperatures are gradually cooling in northern and southern regions, and colder weather in the north may gradually improve the follow-through in household demand. In addition, the traditional peak season for curing meat in the south is drawing near, and the market still has some confidence in a higher outlook. In some production areas in the north and south, there are still occasional instances of secondary fattening operations entering the market, providing some support for hog prices!
However, from a supply-and-demand fundamentals perspective, this month the hog market is under pressure from a mismatch between production and sales! On the one hand, supply is high. This month, leading hog enterprises have increased their planned slaughter volumes, with monitored month-on-month growth in slaughter volume of 1.91% according to SteelHome data. In addition, the average weight of hogs sent to slaughter increased during the month, disease outbreaks were frequent at pig farms, and producers were more willing to send hogs to slaughter, leaving ample supply capacity. On the other hand, the current seasonal peak in demand has been weaker than expected. Downstream market purchases and sales of white-stripped pork have increased only slightly. Moreover, amid high frozen pork inventories, frozen products are being released onto the market in succession, limiting slaughterhouses' capacity to take in hogs. Purchases and sales of fresh white-stripped pork have been sluggish!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand and with month-end approaching, the hog price center of gravity has continued to move lower. Market sentiment has gradually turned cautious, with both bullish and bearish views present. Close attention should be paid to changes in the pace at which large-scale hog enterprises send hogs to slaughter! In theory, hog prices are still expected to show a “month-end uptick”!