In the third quarter of 2026, live hog prices fell markedly. Starting in 7, demand for live hogs from the general market declined significantly and remained low through the middle and latter part of the holiday period. In mid-8, with schools about to reopen and some businesses gradually resuming operations, concentrated pork purchases provided a boost to live hog demand. However, the continued seasonal lull in consumption in 9 was not enough to sustain higher hog prices. In addition, large-scale shipments by major producers and the slow pace of capacity reduction in the earlier period meant that the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays did not provide a meaningful boost to live hog prices. At present, live hog supply remains in a state of oversupply. Hog prices may remain weak in the fourth quarter, making price increases difficult.
Pig prices in 10: “strong at first, then weak”
As of the 23th, pig prices in 10 showed a rise followed by a decline. At the beginning of the month, holiday festivities reduced the volume of live hogs shipped to market, providing a short-term boost to prices. After the holiday, the consumption off-season continued and demand for live hogs fell sharply. The oversupply situation persisted, and pig prices began to fluctuate downward. According to monitoring by Zhuochuang Information, on 23 10, the national average price of lean-meat live hogs was 9.38 yuan/kg, down 0.85 yuan/kg, or 8.31%, from the average of 10.23 yuan/kg on 8, the first day after the holiday.
Live hogs remain in ample supply, and the ongoing “oversupply” situation may make it difficult to drive up hog prices.
On the supply side, live hogs remain in ample supply, and the fourth quarter may see a “rise-decline-rise” pattern. The number of breeding sows remains in surplus. As of the end of the second quarter of 2026 year, the national breeding sow inventory stood at 877.75 ten thousand head, down 0.72% month on month from 5 month. Based on the breeding cycle of live hogs, the effects of capacity reduction may not become clearly apparent until 10 months later, in 2027 year.
The planned hog sales volume of group farming enterprises remains high in 10 month, and hog sales may increase again in 10 month. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, large-scale and above-scale hog farming enterprises plan to sell 2212.29 ten thousand head in 10 month, up 2.45% from the previous month. Hog supply continues to increase, while social demand for hogs is unlikely to improve significantly after the National Day holiday. From 11 to 12 month, demand for larger hogs improved somewhat, but groups may launch year-end volume-promotion activities, and the increase in supply may exceed the increase in demand. The supply pattern of hogs “exceeding demand” has formed again, making it difficult for hog prices to rise.
From the demand side, demand for live pigs increased to some extent in the early part of 10 month, supported by the National Day holiday. As winter approaches, temperatures in some areas are dropping rapidly, and curing activities may increase demand for live pigs to some extent, thereby driving up live pig prices. However, there are no clear signs of a recovery in traditional demand, and the current situation of strong supply and weak demand makes it difficult to reverse the current supply-outstrips-demand balance.
Although the volume of live pig slaughter has increased since 10, the increase gradually slowed later on. According to statistics from SunSirs, as of 10 23, the daily volume of live pig slaughter nationwide was 17.65 ten thousand head, down 2.81 ten thousand head, or 13.72%, from the daily slaughter volume of 20.46 ten thousand head on 23 of the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it was down 1.79 ten thousand head, or 9.21%. From 11 to 12, as temperatures gradually drop and curing activities begin in some areas, demand for live pigs may continue to show signs of growth, but the increase will be limited.
In addition to the supply and demand situation in the live hog spot market, frozen pork inventories from the previous period also put some downward pressure on hog prices. Although the frozen pork storage capacity utilization rate showed signs of declining in the third quarter of 2026 year, it remained high compared with previous years. This indicates that the market supply of pork remains ample and that the pattern of live hog supply exceeding demand persists.
Hog prices may weaken first and then strengthen; reaching the cost line may remain quite difficult
Looking ahead, the post-holiday off-season for consumption has exerted some downward pressure and volatility on hog prices. However, factors such as falling temperatures later on, the start of demand for cured meat, and preparations for the Spring Festival may usher in the annual peak season for hog consumption, potentially lifting prices moderately. However, factors such as persistently high hog slaughter volumes, a frozen pork inventory capacity utilization rate that has not declined, and the relatively high weight of large hogs may continue to limit price increases. A rise in hog prices in the fourth quarter remains challenging, and prices may follow a “fall-rise-fall” trend, with the average live hog price likely to trade within the range of 9.8-10.1 yuan per kilogram.