Recently, the domestic corn market has improved somewhat. Data show that the mainstream corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning is 2150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from 10 month 20; arrivals at deep-processing enterprises in North China remain low, with purchase prices rebounding by 10 to 20 yuan/ton; some deep-processing enterprises in Liaoning have also raised their purchase prices, with the mainstream price at 2120 yuan/ton.
The main reasons for this are that prices fell sharply in the earlier period, dropping below planting costs, and that the recent drop in temperatures has been favorable for storing grain with high moisture content. In addition, reserve depots operated by Sinograin in Shuangyashan, Jixi, and other locations have gradually begun purchasing, which has boosted market confidence to some extent.
Will the corn market turn around at this point? The author believes that corn production will remain high this year, feed demand will decline month by month, and substitute inventories will remain ample. Selling pressure on corn may be pushed back due to short-term reluctance to sell.
Output remains high, with overall supply and demand relatively loose
Data show that new-season corn production edged up year on year. Localized production declines can be fully offset by increased planting area. Compared with the steep production cuts the market speculated about in 8 month, market expectations have changed considerably, and overall supply and demand are loose. In addition, corn substitutes are plentiful. This year, much of the sprouted wheat and germinated wheat went to feed mills, displacing demand for corn.
According to data from the Feed Industry Association, as of month 9, monthly corn use for feed had fallen from 1030 ten thousand tons in month 10 last year to 904 ten thousand tons, a decrease of 12.2%. By the end of month 9, total imports of alternative grains for the 2025/2026 year were 2991 ten thousand tons, compared with 2105 ten thousand tons in the same period last year. With old-crop corn stocks also not yet fully depleted, the overall market is oversupplied.
The number of live pigs in stock declines; processing profits fall
The clearest impact on the demand side is in hogs. Under the influence of policies to reduce production capacity, the inventories of breeding sows and large hogs have gradually declined, and the inventory of animals that continuously consume feed has decreased month by month. In particular, the weight of hogs marketed after 2027 will fall further. Without consumption by large hogs, the outlook for corn demand is not optimistic.
In terms of further processing, although this is traditionally the peak season, downstream sales have remained slow so far. Factory inventories have continued to build, and processing profits have continued to decline, affecting the pace of raw material purchases and inventory levels.
Temporary support from reluctance to sell; selling pressure may be delayed
Overall, the current rise in corn prices is not due to an improvement in fundamentals. It is mainly driven by farmers on the production side holding back sales and policy purchases by Sinograin. In the short term, reduced market circulation will support the corn market. However, corn supply is still expected to exceed demand in the future. For fundamentals to improve significantly, old stock and substitute grain inventories must first be used up before companies will consider building up more inventories of new-crop corn. The short-term rebound will continue to push sales pressure further back. The grain will have to be sold sooner or later, so we recommend planning purchasing and sales schedules appropriately based on your company’s actual circumstances, locking in risk exposure, and prioritizing volume.