In 10 month, hog supply was ample, but end-market pork demand declined compared with before the National Day holiday, and downstream stockpiling decreased, leading to lower slaughter volumes at slaughtering enterprises. Hog supply is still high in 11 month, while demand is increasing slowly. Hog slaughter volume is expected to rise month on month in 11 month.
Pig prices fluctuated downward in 10 month, while slaughter volume decreased month on month.
Entering 10 month, live hog prices fluctuated downward. The national average trading price for three-way crossbred live hogs fell from 10.08 yuan/kg on 9 month 30 to 9.38 yuan/kg on 10 month 23. As of 23, the average live hog price in 10 month was 9.84 yuan/kg, down 7.81% month over month and 14.52% year over year. Live hog supply remained relatively ample in 10 month, while the number of heavyweight hogs marketed was relatively low. However, demand lacked supportive factors, and hog prices continued to fall.
According to monitoring data from SunSirs, hog slaughter volume fell month over month in 10. The daily slaughter volume of representative slaughtering enterprises nationwide rose from a low of 16.50 ten thousand head on 10 month 8 to a peak of 17.26 ten thousand head on the 21. With no boost from favorable holiday factors in 10, downstream stockpiling demand was limited, and orders at slaughtering enterprises decreased compared with the National Day holiday period, leading to a month-over-month decline in slaughter volume. As of the 22, the average daily hog slaughter volume at national sample slaughtering enterprises in 10 was 16.81 ten thousand head, down 8.46% month over month and 9.10% year over year.
Supply increased while demand weakened; hog slaughter volume in 10 month declined both year over year and month over month.
In terms of supply, at the beginning of 10 month, a survey by Zhuochuang Information of 215 pig-farming enterprises nationwide showed that their planned hog slaughter volume increased by 2.45% month on month. In terms of actual slaughter, the daily hog slaughter volume of the monitored sample farming enterprises surveyed by Zhuochuang Information in 10 was 21.00 ten thousand head, up 4.43% month on month and 1.08% year on year. Because hog production capacity had been ample in the preceding period, and prices before the Mid-Autumn Festival in 9 were lower than expected, some farms held back hogs from sale. Meanwhile, temperatures fell in 10, accelerating hog weight gain and increasing the supply of market-ready hogs of suitable weight. Hog supply remained ample.
From the demand side, temperatures fell during the month, but temperatures in 2026 year 10 month were still higher than in the same period of 2025 year. Pork consumption was relatively limited. In terms of fresh sales of carcass pork, the average daily fresh sales of pork carcasses at the sampled slaughtering enterprises in 2026 year 10 month were 14.02 ten thousand head, down 9.74% month over month and 11.45% year over year. Both the year-over-year and month-over-month declines were greater than the decline in slaughter volume, reflecting weak end-market demand for pork. Meanwhile, slaughtering enterprises concentrated on putting frozen products into storage after the Spring Festival holiday. Entering the fourth quarter, slaughtering enterprises generally accelerated the release of frozen products from storage to ease cash-flow pressure. The release of frozen pork from storage further suppressed demand for fresh pork, resulting in fewer pork orders for slaughtering enterprises in 10 month and declines in slaughter volume both year over year and month over month. In particular, despite an increase in planned hog marketings for slaughter, hog slaughter volume and fresh sales of pork carcasses showed a year-over-year downward trend, largely reflecting that consumption of pork carcasses in 2026 year 10 month was weaker than in the same period of 2025 year.
After the National Day holiday, slaughtering companies' profits gradually recovered from low levels
After the National Day holiday, as end-user demand for pork declined, orders for slaughtering enterprises decreased. Under pressure from abundant hog supplies and competition from industry peers, prices of dressed pork fell, and slaughtering enterprises' gross margins dropped from 32.85 yuan/head on 9/25 to a low of 26.81 yuan/head on 10/16. However, after hog prices fell below 10 yuan/kg across the board in the latter part of the month, slaughtering enterprises became more inclined to support sales prices. Dressed pork prices fell less than hog prices. Meanwhile, as temperatures dropped in northern regions later in the month, end-user demand improved slightly and orders for slaughtering enterprises increased. The increase in slaughter volume supported a decline in cost per head, helping slaughtering gross margins recover. As of 23, the average slaughtering gross margin of the sampled slaughtering enterprises was 30.36 yuan/head.
Monthly pig slaughter volume may increase slightly by 11
On the supply side, the number of newborn piglets remained high in 5 month. Therefore, the theoretical volume of hogs available for slaughter in 11 month was relatively ample. Combined with faster hog weight gain, there were more market-ready hogs at suitable weights, so slaughterhouses may have been able to procure them relatively smoothly. On the demand side, as temperatures fell, there was still room for end-user demand to increase, and downstream stockpiling gradually picked up. Meanwhile, as the month entered its latter part, southern China’s curing season may have started gradually, further supporting pork demand. Therefore, the volume of hogs slaughtered is expected to rise gradually in 11 month, with the monthly average increasing by around 3% month on month.