Cash flow at the farming end is under pressure, while producers continue to weigh their options for the market outlook. Both deliberate delays in sending pigs to slaughter and involuntary holding of pigs are occurring. The current average weight of pigs sent to slaughter nationwide remains high, with the share of heavy pigs weighing more than 150 kilograms continuing to increase. In addition, pig supplies from the earlier second-round fattening phase have not yet been fully cleared. The price spread between standard-weight and heavy pigs has not widened significantly, and the second-round fattening segment is shifting from a “price buffer” to a “release channel” that facilitates market clearance.
1 The average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter continues to rise, with leading farms seeing a faster increase
According to data monitored by Zhuochuang Information, from the first week of 8 to the third week of 10, the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter nationwide continued to rise, increasing for 11 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 1.33 kilograms, or 1.07%. In the third week of 10, the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter was 125.44 kilograms, up 0.45 kilograms from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the average purchase weight also rose, but at a markedly slower pace. The difference between the two weights (average purchase weight minus average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter) fell from 0.12 kilograms at the end of the previous month to -0.81 kilograms. During 10, producers actively shipped hogs for slaughter, but demand for heavier hogs had not yet fully started. Oversupply left producers with unsold hogs, forcing them to hold them back.
Analysis of the average weight of pigs shipped by farming enterprises of different sizes shows that the weight of pigs shipped by the top 5 leading enterprises has risen continuously since late 9. Some enterprises have reduced their annual shipment plans and lowered their fourth-quarter shipment plans. Some of these pigs may therefore be shipped later, leading to a relatively rapid increase in average weight. In addition, leading farms are shipping pigs at lower prices, while medium-sized farms and small-scale farmers lack a shipping advantage. Average weight is not increasing quickly, but many pigs are being held back and few are being shipped; a concentrated wave of shipments later on may directly drive up the average weight of pigs shipped.
Figure 1: Trend in average pig weight at different stages nationwide
Data source: Zhuochuang Information
Figure 2 Trend in the average weight of hogs sold by farming enterprises of different sizes
Data source: Zhuochuang Information
After 2, the widening of the price gap between heavy pigs and standard pigs has basically stalled, while the inventory of large pigs has continued to rise
Compared with the same period in previous years, the price gap between heavy pigs and standard pigs was notably higher after 4. Due to policy restrictions affecting restocking for secondary fattening, combined with a weak market, enthusiasm for restocking for secondary fattening declined markedly, circulation of large pigs in the market fell, and the price gap between heavy pigs and standard pigs was higher than in previous years. In particular, high temperatures in 7 slowed the rate of pig weight gain, while an overselling phenomenon occurred at the end of 6, causing the price gap between heavy pigs and standard pigs to widen significantly. However, from mid-8 to the present, as pigs sourced through secondary fattening and restocked in 6 and 7 have gradually come to market, the widening of the price gap between heavy pigs and standard pigs has basically stalled and shows signs of narrowing. Pig diseases have also been occurring frequently in many areas. Low-priced small pigs have a clear price advantage over high-priced large pigs, and overall demand for large pigs is weak, leaving little prospect for further widening of the price gap between heavy pigs and standard pigs.
Additionally, according to Zhuochuang Information’s statistics on the completion rate of hog marketing plans at more than 200 large-scale farms, from 5 to 9, the completion rate of marketing plans at large-scale farms remained below 100%. The main reason from 5 to 7 was that the widening price spread between fat and standard hogs created bullish market expectations, prompting producers to hold back hogs voluntarily. From 8 to 10, the situation was influenced more by oversupply. Meanwhile, in some regions, stringent inspections of quarantine certificates made it difficult to transport large hogs out of the province, resulting in involuntary backlogs and holding of large hogs. Since 7, inventories of large hogs have also continued to rise.
Figure 3 Price spread trend between fat and standard hogs
Data source: Zhuochuang Information
Figure 4 Trend chart of monthly hog sales plans and large pig inventory
Data source: SunSirs
Similar to 3, the growth trend in slaughter volume during the curing season or after a delayed start is similar to that in 2023
According to Xinhua News Agency, the National Climate Center reported on 10 9 that a super El Niño event had officially formed in 2026 9. During the development of El Niño, based on past patterns, some regions are more likely to experience a warmer-than-usual winter, but extreme rainstorms and snowstorms may also occur. This may be similar to the situation in 2023. For the hog market, if a warm winter occurs, temperatures in 11 will be higher than usual, making it unlikely that the curing season will start early. The Spring Festival in 2027 falls in early 2. Based on the curing process, production may begin in earnest after the heavy snow solar term in 12. The pace of incremental demand may therefore weigh on 11 and be concentrated in favor of 12. On the other hand, localized extreme rainstorms and snowstorms may make it difficult to ship live hogs out of producing regions or bring hogs into consuming regions. Whether hogs are being shipped out or brought in, this may cause local hog prices to rise rapidly in the short term, thereby affecting the overall national trend. If rainstorms and snowstorms occur in 12, they are still expected to weigh on 11 and be relatively favorable to 12.
However, considering the current forecast of high live pig inventories, together with the possibility that some medium-sized leading farms will proactively increase output in the fourth quarter to meet their annual slaughter targets, the estimated changes in slaughter volume for 10-12 are expected to be a decrease of 8.6%, an increase of 9%, and an increase of 20%, respectively.
Figure 5: Forecast trend in pig slaughter volume in the fourth quarter
Data source: SunSirs
In summary, slaughter weights continue to increase, while monthly sales and slaughter plans at the farming end continue to be postponed. Combined with the greater difficulty of marketing heavy pigs in some regions due to missing paperwork, these factors have driven the heavy-pig inventory steadily higher. From the current perspective, overall heavy-pig supply in the fourth quarter is relatively ample, and pig prices may see only limited gains from 11-12 months. However, if listed companies reduce their annual slaughter plans and lower total slaughter in the fourth quarter, or if some areas experience extreme rainstorms or snowstorms, pig prices from 11-12 months may exceed expectations. But this could also further increase average carcass weight and carcass weight per head, weighing on slaughter volumes. Total live-pig supply may decline, but the increase in slaughter volume may also be below expectations. A substantial supply gap in the heavy-pig market is unlikely to emerge in the fourth quarter, and the timing of a trend reversal in pig prices will be pushed back further.