Time flies, and the close of 10 is just around the corner. In China’s livestock and poultry farming sector, livepig priceshave remained weak. In particular, the market has been sliding in recent days, with prices continuing to retreat! The live pig market is currently caught in the awkward situation of “strong expectations and weak reality.” The seasonal turning point toward higher prices has yet to arrive, and live pig quotations keep setting new lows for the current period. Although the market remains confident about the outlook for the fourth quarter, as pig prices continue to languish, sentiment among some producers has begun to soften. The live pig market still needs time to make room for improvement, and prices remain in a “bottoming out” phase!
According to data monitoring, as of 10 23, the national average ex-farm price for lean-type standard pigs was 9.51 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg. The “endless” decline in pig prices continues, with the price level moving lower. It is down more than 19% year on year, and breeding losses are gradually deepening. The average loss per pig at leading domestic farms using the farrow-to-finish model has risen to 264.59 yuan, leaving the market mired in a “quagmire”!
By region, on 10 23, prices generally declined across the 28 key regions monitored in northern and southern China. In some areas, high-priced markets showed a clear “catch-up decline.” The national average live pig price was close to the 9.5 yuan/kg quoted in Heilongjiang, Anhui, and Hubei. In particular, in East China, a traditionally high-priced market, standard pig quotations fell across the board below 10 yuan/kg. Only scattered quotations in Fujian and Guangdong exceeded 5 yuan/jin nationwide. Mainstream live pig quotations fell to 9~9.85 yuan/kg, while prices in Xinjiang hit a low of 8.65 yuan/kg. The live pig market is “awash in red,” with prices following a gradual downward trend!
However, the authorities recently announced that the reduction in the domestic breeding sow herd exceeded expectations. At the end of the third quarter, the herd stood at 3602 ten thousand head, down 433 ten thousand head year on year and 4.2% from the end of the second quarter. The domestic breeding sow herd has fallen to 96% of the normal stock level, and the target for reducing the herd has been achieved ahead of schedule! However, changes in the breeding sow herd affect the supply of market hogs 10 months later, while at the present stage, domestic live pig supply and demand still face a serious mismatch!
On the demand side, although the weather is gradually getting cooler and the market expects residents to increase their consumption of rich foods to build up their strength for autumn, the post-National Day consumer market has lacked the boost of a festive atmosphere. In addition, domestic supplies of pork substitutes are ample! Demand has shifted more toward poultry, seafood, and other lean meats such as beef and mutton. As residents adjust their diets, pork consumption has fallen short of expectations! In urban markets, demand from restaurants and catering services has also weakened. Downstream purchases and sales of dressed carcasses have been sluggish, while the operating rate of major slaughterhouses has fluctuated at a low level, with little improvement in average daily slaughter volumes!
Furthermore, as losses from hog fattening have deepened, speculative funds for secondary fattening have come under sharply greater pressure. The market also expects pork supplies to remain ample, dampening enthusiasm for temporarily restocking with standard-weight hogs. Slaughterhouses have had little difficulty making routine purchases, and the pace of hog deliveries has generally been fast!
On the supply side, hog marketings are currently in a phase of continued release. The sow inventory base 10 months ago stood at 3961 ten thousand head, leaving production capacity at a high level. Production efficiency has also improved, and plans to market a relatively large number of hogs at suitable weights this month are in place! Some pig enterprises received insufficient marginal demand support for last month's marketings, leaving pressure from a production lag. The supply capacity of commercial hogs will increase further this month! Meanwhile, ongoing losses from hog fattening during the month have made it difficult to ease funding constraints among producers, increasing their need to replenish cash. In addition, the recent rise in hog marketing weights has further strengthened expectations of ample pork supplies and heightened market concerns!
As a result, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, hog prices have come under pressure and fallen in the short term. The market may remain weak and continue to bottom out for a while, with prices likely to trend lower! However, as 10 month draws to a close and average hog prices continue to fall, some institutions believe that, by month-end, further improvement in demand and stronger resistance among producers to price cuts could give the hog market a chance to bottom out! What do you think?
According to data monitoring, as of 10 23, the national average ex-farm price for lean-type standard pigs was 9.51 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg. The “endless” decline in pig prices continues, with the price level moving lower. It is down more than 19% year on year, and breeding losses are gradually deepening. The average loss per pig at leading domestic farms using the farrow-to-finish model has risen to 264.59 yuan, leaving the market mired in a “quagmire”!
By region, on 10 23, prices generally declined across the 28 key regions monitored in northern and southern China. In some areas, high-priced markets showed a clear “catch-up decline.” The national average live pig price was close to the 9.5 yuan/kg quoted in Heilongjiang, Anhui, and Hubei. In particular, in East China, a traditionally high-priced market, standard pig quotations fell across the board below 10 yuan/kg. Only scattered quotations in Fujian and Guangdong exceeded 5 yuan/jin nationwide. Mainstream live pig quotations fell to 9~9.85 yuan/kg, while prices in Xinjiang hit a low of 8.65 yuan/kg. The live pig market is “awash in red,” with prices following a gradual downward trend!
However, the authorities recently announced that the reduction in the domestic breeding sow herd exceeded expectations. At the end of the third quarter, the herd stood at 3602 ten thousand head, down 433 ten thousand head year on year and 4.2% from the end of the second quarter. The domestic breeding sow herd has fallen to 96% of the normal stock level, and the target for reducing the herd has been achieved ahead of schedule! However, changes in the breeding sow herd affect the supply of market hogs 10 months later, while at the present stage, domestic live pig supply and demand still face a serious mismatch!
On the demand side, although the weather is gradually getting cooler and the market expects residents to increase their consumption of rich foods to build up their strength for autumn, the post-National Day consumer market has lacked the boost of a festive atmosphere. In addition, domestic supplies of pork substitutes are ample! Demand has shifted more toward poultry, seafood, and other lean meats such as beef and mutton. As residents adjust their diets, pork consumption has fallen short of expectations! In urban markets, demand from restaurants and catering services has also weakened. Downstream purchases and sales of dressed carcasses have been sluggish, while the operating rate of major slaughterhouses has fluctuated at a low level, with little improvement in average daily slaughter volumes!
Furthermore, as losses from hog fattening have deepened, speculative funds for secondary fattening have come under sharply greater pressure. The market also expects pork supplies to remain ample, dampening enthusiasm for temporarily restocking with standard-weight hogs. Slaughterhouses have had little difficulty making routine purchases, and the pace of hog deliveries has generally been fast!
On the supply side, hog marketings are currently in a phase of continued release. The sow inventory base 10 months ago stood at 3961 ten thousand head, leaving production capacity at a high level. Production efficiency has also improved, and plans to market a relatively large number of hogs at suitable weights this month are in place! Some pig enterprises received insufficient marginal demand support for last month's marketings, leaving pressure from a production lag. The supply capacity of commercial hogs will increase further this month! Meanwhile, ongoing losses from hog fattening during the month have made it difficult to ease funding constraints among producers, increasing their need to replenish cash. In addition, the recent rise in hog marketing weights has further strengthened expectations of ample pork supplies and heightened market concerns!
As a result, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, hog prices have come under pressure and fallen in the short term. The market may remain weak and continue to bottom out for a while, with prices likely to trend lower! However, as 10 month draws to a close and average hog prices continue to fall, some institutions believe that, by month-end, further improvement in demand and stronger resistance among producers to price cuts could give the hog market a chance to bottom out! What do you think?