The EU beef market remains affected by limited supplies of slaughter cattle. A livestock survey conducted in mid-2026 showed a further decline in the number of adult cattle intended for slaughter. In Poland, the herd in this category was 5,6 percent smaller than a year earlier. In the ten largest beef-producing countries in the EU, the total number of animals fell by 0,5 percent year on year.
The shrinking raw material base is affecting meat production. In the first seven months of 2026, the weight of cattle slaughtered in the European Union fell by 2 percent compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. Among the ten largest EU producers, the deepest decline in volume was recorded in Poland.
According to analysts at Bank Pekao, the continuing unfavorable trend in cattle numbers is worsening the outlook for live cattle supply toward the end of the year. For now, there are no clear indications that this situation will reverse quickly.
EU beef exports at their lowest since 2013
Lower production also limits the export opportunities of EU plants. From January to July 2026, beef exports outside the EU fell by 4 percent year on year, reaching their lowest level since 2013.
Imports from non-EU countries, primarily Brazil, are partly making up for the shortfall on the market. In the first seven months of the year, beef imports into the European Union increased by 11 percent compared with the same period in 2025.
Rising imports ease supply tensions but do not change the overall market picture, in which the availability of EU meat remains limited.
Prices lower than a year ago, but still high
After a period of declines, beef prices have stabilized on both the global and EU markets. The global situation is influenced, among other things, by strong demand in the United States for meat from Brazil. The USA temporarily increased quotas to improve the availability of beef on the domestic market.
In September 2026, the average price of bull carcasses in the European Union was 7 percent lower than a year earlier. In Poland, the decline was greater, at 14 percent. Despite the reductions, prices remain high compared with historical levels.
What’s next for beef prices?
Analysts at Bank Pekao predict that in the last quarter of 2026 year, beef prices in the EU will be supported by limited supply. Falling meat production and no prospects for a rapid improvement in livestock availability should help keep prices at their current, relatively high level.
However, short-term price corrections cannot be ruled out, linked, among other things, to changes in demand on global markets. For Poland, maintaining interest from Turkish buyers will be particularly important. As analysts point out, demand from Turkey remains one of the main drivers of Polish beef exports.
For cattle producers, limited supply may therefore support purchase prices, although the situation will also depend on foreign demand and conditions on the global market.