China's hog production capacity regulation is still ongoing. However, against the backdrop of a sharp decline in the stock of breeding sows, China's hogpricesbut has yet to show much improvement.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that, as of the end of the third quarter, the number of breeding sows nationwide stood at 3602 ten thousand head, down 10.7% year on year, putting it within the “green zone” for capacity regulation set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. However, the accelerated reduction in breeding capacity has not brought about a recovery in hog prices. Currently, rawPig pricesremain around 10 yuan/kg, still some distance from the break-even point of 12 yuan/kg for most livestock farming enterprises.
Several industry insiders told a reporter from China Business Journal that the number of breeding sows affects hog marketings about ten months later. The industry is still in the “transmission period” of capacity reduction, while rising farming efficiency and weak end-market demand have significantly offset the upward effect that capacity reduction would otherwise have on hog prices.
The number of sows has fallen by 433 ten thousand, yet hog marketings are still increasing
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, the growth in the number of pigs slaughtered in China slowed, while the reduction in base production capacity accelerated. At the end of the third quarter, the number of live pigs in China was 42533 ten thousand head, a year-on-year decrease of 1147 ten thousand head, or 2.6%. Among them, the number of breeding sows was 3602 ten thousand head, a year-on-year decrease of 433 ten thousand head, or 10.7%; the decline widened by 4.2 percentage points compared with the second quarter. It currently stands at 96.0% of the normal holding level of 3750 ten thousand head.
According to the Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Regulation of Hog Production Capacity, revised and issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2026 year 5 month, a breeding sow inventory within 92%–103% of the normal holding level (3750 ten thousand head) is considered the green zone. This also means that China’s current breeding sow inventory is within the normal range.
Research data from multiple institutions show that reducing the number of breeding sows has become an industry consensus.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Zou Yingji told the reporter that, as of the end of 9, the breeding sow inventory of the 196 sample companies stood at 841.23 ten thousand head. Capacity reduction among the sample companies accelerated in the third quarter, with an average monthly decline of 1.03%, widening by 0.37 percentage points compared with the second quarter. According to Zhuo Chuang Information's survey, breeding sow inventories have fallen across all types of farming groups, with the reductions concentrated more among small and medium-sized independent farmers.
“The decline in the number of breeding sows is indeed accelerating. The reduction has a ‘two-tier structure’: first, due to sustained losses since 10 of the previous year, small and medium-sized independent farmers are mainly culling low-efficiency sows and exiting the market; second, large-scale farms are making structural reductions, actively culling older, low-productivity sows and optimizing their breeding herds,” said Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
However, the “brakes” on the number of breeding sows have not yet been reflected in the number of animals sent to slaughter.
In the first three quarters, the number of pigs slaughtered nationwide was 53739 ten thousand head, an increase of 747 ten thousand head year on year, up 1.4%, with the growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than in the first half of the year. Pork production was 4508 ten thousand metric tons, an increase of 140 ten thousand metric tons year on year, up 3.2%.
However, listed hog producers showed diverging shipment trends. New Hope, Wens Foodstuff, Jingji Zhinong, and Dabeinong saw year-on-year declines in shipment volumes. By contrast, several companies, including Zhengbang Technology, Aonong Biotechnology, Kemen Foods, Tecon Biology, and Jinxinnong, recorded year-on-year increases in shipment volumes of more than three tenths.
Meanwhile, the supply side’s “inertial” growth directly pushed pork prices down.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the 3 week of 10 (from 12 to 18, 10), live animals nationwidePig priceAt 10.89 yuan/kg, down 1.6% month on month; the national average wholesale pork market price was 15.83 yuan/kg, down 0.6% month on month and 12.6% year on year. In addition, according to data disclosed by several publicly listed pig farming companies, live hog selling prices in month 9 were around 10.5 yuan/kg, down approximately 20% year on year.
This price is already well below the industry cost line. “At present, the break-even point for most farming companies is 11.6–12.0 yuan per kilogram, while for leading companies it is around 11.5 yuan per kilogram,” Zou Yingji said.
Zhu Zengyong also noted that the industry’s average full cost is about 12–13 yuan/kg, but costs varied considerably among farms and households in this cycle, changing the pattern seen in previous cycles, when scale was uneconomical. The full production costs of more efficient large-scale farms and leading enterprises were significantly lower than those of small and medium-sized individual producers.
Normally, it takes about 10 months for changes in the breeding sow population to feed through to market hog slaughter. However, in the view of Xu Hongzhi, senior analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants, as breeding efficiency improves, the impact of the number of breeding sows on hog supply is gradually diminishing.
“‘Reducing the number of sows without reducing pork output’ is a typical feature of this cycle. The industry-average PSY has risen from approximately 18 head in 2018 to over 24 head currently, with leading companies exceeding 30 head. Together with a declining feed-to-meat ratio and adjustments to slaughter weight, the normal inventory of breeding sows will be adjusted dynamically and flexibly as PSY rises and pork consumption trends downward,” said Zhu Zengyong.
When will the industry enter the profit zone?
Several industry insiders believe that when pig prices emerge from the trough depends on a rebalancing of supply and demand.
On the supply side, apart from the number of breeding sows, farming efficiency is another key variable. In recent years, leading pig farming companies have generally increased investment in improving PSY, while also reducing costs by increasing the proportion of self-raised pigs.
Zou Yingji believes that the decline in the number of breeding sows in the earlier period was slow, production indicators improved relatively quickly, and as temperatures fell, pigs grew faster. Pig sales may therefore still increase in the short term. According to Zhuochuang Information's forecast, negative growth in pig sales may occur as early as the second quarter of 2027 or as late as the second half of 2027.
Meanwhile, farming costs are also an important factor affecting profitability.
At present, feed ingredient prices in China are at a low level. As of 10 month 16, the domestic spot price of corn was about 2167 yuan/ton, down 1.56% week over week; the price of compound feed for finishing pigs was 3.36 yuan/kilogram, unchanged from the previous period. Many pig farming companies are seeking to reduce costs and improve efficiency. At present, the full costs of cost-leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, New Hope, Shennong Group, and Da Bei Nong have fallen below 12 yuan/kilogram.
Another important factor lies on the demand side.
“China’s pork consumption demand has entered a downward trend. Per capita household pork consumption fell from 2023 kilograms in 30.5 to 2025 kilograms in 26.6, a cumulative decline of 12.8%. Pork’s share of meat consumption fell from 2018% in 62 to 2025% in 57.” Zhu Zengyong told the reporter that the key factors affecting this trend are changes in population structure, including population aging and a slowdown in urbanization; dietary substitution, with poultry, beef and mutton, and aquatic products accounting for a rising share; health-conscious consumption; and macroeconomic conditions and residents’ income expectations.
As for performance this year, according to Zhuochuang Information, end-market pork consumption this year has been “below expectations,” as reflected in insufficient holiday stockpiling and year-on-year declines in demand for cured meat, among other factors.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, substitutes for pork are increasing within the meat consumption mix. In the first three quarters, poultry slaughter nationwide reached 143.0 billion birds, up 7.8% year on year; poultry meat production was 2244 ten thousand tonnes, up 9.3% year on year—significantly faster than the 3.2% growth in pork production.
Considering the factors above, several industry insiders and securities firms forecast that thePork pricesThe point at which it returns to the break-even line may occur in the second or third quarter of 2027.
An Open Source Securities research report pointed out that,仔Pig pricesContinuing to hit new lows—piglets weighing 7 kg have fallen to 105 yuan per head, down about 29.5% from the end of 8—deepening breeding losses are driving further capacity reduction across the industry. However, the decline in breeding sow numbers in month 9 has narrowed significantly, and supply-demand conditions may improve more noticeably in the second half of 2027.
Zhu Zengyong mentioned that, constrained by three factors—a downward trend in demand, the enhanced countercyclical adjustment capacity of large-scale farms, and the depletion of frozen-product inventories—breeding returns are expected to begin improving somewhat from the latter part of the second quarter of next year.
“We can return to around the break-even point in the first half of next year, and the window for profitability will last no more than one year. It is difficult to predict the price peak, but it is unlikely to exceed 20 yuan per kilogram,” Xu Hongzhi said.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that, as of the end of the third quarter, the number of breeding sows nationwide stood at 3602 ten thousand head, down 10.7% year on year, putting it within the “green zone” for capacity regulation set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. However, the accelerated reduction in breeding capacity has not brought about a recovery in hog prices. Currently, rawPig pricesremain around 10 yuan/kg, still some distance from the break-even point of 12 yuan/kg for most livestock farming enterprises.
Several industry insiders told a reporter from China Business Journal that the number of breeding sows affects hog marketings about ten months later. The industry is still in the “transmission period” of capacity reduction, while rising farming efficiency and weak end-market demand have significantly offset the upward effect that capacity reduction would otherwise have on hog prices.
The number of sows has fallen by 433 ten thousand, yet hog marketings are still increasing
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, the growth in the number of pigs slaughtered in China slowed, while the reduction in base production capacity accelerated. At the end of the third quarter, the number of live pigs in China was 42533 ten thousand head, a year-on-year decrease of 1147 ten thousand head, or 2.6%. Among them, the number of breeding sows was 3602 ten thousand head, a year-on-year decrease of 433 ten thousand head, or 10.7%; the decline widened by 4.2 percentage points compared with the second quarter. It currently stands at 96.0% of the normal holding level of 3750 ten thousand head.
According to the Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Regulation of Hog Production Capacity, revised and issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2026 year 5 month, a breeding sow inventory within 92%–103% of the normal holding level (3750 ten thousand head) is considered the green zone. This also means that China’s current breeding sow inventory is within the normal range.
Research data from multiple institutions show that reducing the number of breeding sows has become an industry consensus.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Zou Yingji told the reporter that, as of the end of 9, the breeding sow inventory of the 196 sample companies stood at 841.23 ten thousand head. Capacity reduction among the sample companies accelerated in the third quarter, with an average monthly decline of 1.03%, widening by 0.37 percentage points compared with the second quarter. According to Zhuo Chuang Information's survey, breeding sow inventories have fallen across all types of farming groups, with the reductions concentrated more among small and medium-sized independent farmers.
“The decline in the number of breeding sows is indeed accelerating. The reduction has a ‘two-tier structure’: first, due to sustained losses since 10 of the previous year, small and medium-sized independent farmers are mainly culling low-efficiency sows and exiting the market; second, large-scale farms are making structural reductions, actively culling older, low-productivity sows and optimizing their breeding herds,” said Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
However, the “brakes” on the number of breeding sows have not yet been reflected in the number of animals sent to slaughter.
In the first three quarters, the number of pigs slaughtered nationwide was 53739 ten thousand head, an increase of 747 ten thousand head year on year, up 1.4%, with the growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than in the first half of the year. Pork production was 4508 ten thousand metric tons, an increase of 140 ten thousand metric tons year on year, up 3.2%.
However, listed hog producers showed diverging shipment trends. New Hope, Wens Foodstuff, Jingji Zhinong, and Dabeinong saw year-on-year declines in shipment volumes. By contrast, several companies, including Zhengbang Technology, Aonong Biotechnology, Kemen Foods, Tecon Biology, and Jinxinnong, recorded year-on-year increases in shipment volumes of more than three tenths.
Meanwhile, the supply side’s “inertial” growth directly pushed pork prices down.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the 3 week of 10 (from 12 to 18, 10), live animals nationwidePig priceAt 10.89 yuan/kg, down 1.6% month on month; the national average wholesale pork market price was 15.83 yuan/kg, down 0.6% month on month and 12.6% year on year. In addition, according to data disclosed by several publicly listed pig farming companies, live hog selling prices in month 9 were around 10.5 yuan/kg, down approximately 20% year on year.
This price is already well below the industry cost line. “At present, the break-even point for most farming companies is 11.6–12.0 yuan per kilogram, while for leading companies it is around 11.5 yuan per kilogram,” Zou Yingji said.
Zhu Zengyong also noted that the industry’s average full cost is about 12–13 yuan/kg, but costs varied considerably among farms and households in this cycle, changing the pattern seen in previous cycles, when scale was uneconomical. The full production costs of more efficient large-scale farms and leading enterprises were significantly lower than those of small and medium-sized individual producers.
Normally, it takes about 10 months for changes in the breeding sow population to feed through to market hog slaughter. However, in the view of Xu Hongzhi, senior analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants, as breeding efficiency improves, the impact of the number of breeding sows on hog supply is gradually diminishing.
“‘Reducing the number of sows without reducing pork output’ is a typical feature of this cycle. The industry-average PSY has risen from approximately 18 head in 2018 to over 24 head currently, with leading companies exceeding 30 head. Together with a declining feed-to-meat ratio and adjustments to slaughter weight, the normal inventory of breeding sows will be adjusted dynamically and flexibly as PSY rises and pork consumption trends downward,” said Zhu Zengyong.
When will the industry enter the profit zone?
Several industry insiders believe that when pig prices emerge from the trough depends on a rebalancing of supply and demand.
On the supply side, apart from the number of breeding sows, farming efficiency is another key variable. In recent years, leading pig farming companies have generally increased investment in improving PSY, while also reducing costs by increasing the proportion of self-raised pigs.
Zou Yingji believes that the decline in the number of breeding sows in the earlier period was slow, production indicators improved relatively quickly, and as temperatures fell, pigs grew faster. Pig sales may therefore still increase in the short term. According to Zhuochuang Information's forecast, negative growth in pig sales may occur as early as the second quarter of 2027 or as late as the second half of 2027.
Meanwhile, farming costs are also an important factor affecting profitability.
At present, feed ingredient prices in China are at a low level. As of 10 month 16, the domestic spot price of corn was about 2167 yuan/ton, down 1.56% week over week; the price of compound feed for finishing pigs was 3.36 yuan/kilogram, unchanged from the previous period. Many pig farming companies are seeking to reduce costs and improve efficiency. At present, the full costs of cost-leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, New Hope, Shennong Group, and Da Bei Nong have fallen below 12 yuan/kilogram.
Another important factor lies on the demand side.
“China’s pork consumption demand has entered a downward trend. Per capita household pork consumption fell from 2023 kilograms in 30.5 to 2025 kilograms in 26.6, a cumulative decline of 12.8%. Pork’s share of meat consumption fell from 2018% in 62 to 2025% in 57.” Zhu Zengyong told the reporter that the key factors affecting this trend are changes in population structure, including population aging and a slowdown in urbanization; dietary substitution, with poultry, beef and mutton, and aquatic products accounting for a rising share; health-conscious consumption; and macroeconomic conditions and residents’ income expectations.
As for performance this year, according to Zhuochuang Information, end-market pork consumption this year has been “below expectations,” as reflected in insufficient holiday stockpiling and year-on-year declines in demand for cured meat, among other factors.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, substitutes for pork are increasing within the meat consumption mix. In the first three quarters, poultry slaughter nationwide reached 143.0 billion birds, up 7.8% year on year; poultry meat production was 2244 ten thousand tonnes, up 9.3% year on year—significantly faster than the 3.2% growth in pork production.
Considering the factors above, several industry insiders and securities firms forecast that thePork pricesThe point at which it returns to the break-even line may occur in the second or third quarter of 2027.
An Open Source Securities research report pointed out that,仔Pig pricesContinuing to hit new lows—piglets weighing 7 kg have fallen to 105 yuan per head, down about 29.5% from the end of 8—deepening breeding losses are driving further capacity reduction across the industry. However, the decline in breeding sow numbers in month 9 has narrowed significantly, and supply-demand conditions may improve more noticeably in the second half of 2027.
Zhu Zengyong mentioned that, constrained by three factors—a downward trend in demand, the enhanced countercyclical adjustment capacity of large-scale farms, and the depletion of frozen-product inventories—breeding returns are expected to begin improving somewhat from the latter part of the second quarter of next year.
“We can return to around the break-even point in the first half of next year, and the window for profitability will last no more than one year. It is difficult to predict the price peak, but it is unlikely to exceed 20 yuan per kilogram,” Xu Hongzhi said.