Recently, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that at the end of the third quarter of 2026, China had 3602 million breeding sows in inventory, down 178 million head, or 4.7%, from the end of 26Q2. The decline widened further from 26Q2 (a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 124 million head, or 3.2%) and was greater than the figures reported by third-party sources (approximately 2.2% according to Yongyi Consulting and approximately 4.4% according to Mysteel). Meanwhile, hog inventory at the end of the third quarter fell 2.6% year on year, marking its first move into negative territory since 2025.
Guotou Securities said that 6 through 8 is traditionally a peak season for hog prices, which have often risen during this period historically. This year, however, hog prices in 8National hog pricesThe highest rebound reached only 11.2 yuan per kilogram, as expectations of a boost from consumer demand temporarily failed to materialize. Meanwhile, the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter and frozen meat inventories remain high. In addition, the decline in the number of breeding sows from 2025 year 11 month to 2026 year 3 month was relatively small and may not have offset the improvement in sow production efficiency. Hog supply pressure is expected to remain relatively high over the next 3-6 months, making a sharp rise in hog prices unlikely. Given that cumulative losses under the purchased piglet-fattening model have exceeded the cumulative profits from the previous high-profit period (2024 to 2025), while the farrow-to-finish model has also lost approximately 86% of its previously accumulated profits, continued losses are expected to increase cash-flow pressure across the industry and may drive a further significant reduction in sow capacity over the next 2 quarters. The scale of herd culling may be substantial, potentially lending support to prices next yearHog cycleand amplifying the rebound. With reference to the normal inventory level for breeding sows set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (3750 ten thousand head), current inventory data from the National Bureau of Statistics have confirmed our earlier assessment that breeding sows entered a phase of accelerated culling in 26Q3. We remain positive on 2027 yearHog cycleReversal (profitability basis).
According to the CLS Theme Database, among the related listed companies:
Shen Nong Group 2025 year, the company sold a total of 36.47 ten thousand piglets, with an average weight of 6 kilograms per head.
Juxing Agriculture & Animal Husbandry responds to consumers’ demand for improved pork quality through genetic breeding, nutritiontechnologyand other measures to improve pork quality, and uses a digital intelligence platform to connect quality management across the entire chain, from raw material procurement to product sales.
Guotou Securities said that 6 through 8 is traditionally a peak season for hog prices, which have often risen during this period historically. This year, however, hog prices in 8National hog pricesThe highest rebound reached only 11.2 yuan per kilogram, as expectations of a boost from consumer demand temporarily failed to materialize. Meanwhile, the average weight of hogs shipped for slaughter and frozen meat inventories remain high. In addition, the decline in the number of breeding sows from 2025 year 11 month to 2026 year 3 month was relatively small and may not have offset the improvement in sow production efficiency. Hog supply pressure is expected to remain relatively high over the next 3-6 months, making a sharp rise in hog prices unlikely. Given that cumulative losses under the purchased piglet-fattening model have exceeded the cumulative profits from the previous high-profit period (2024 to 2025), while the farrow-to-finish model has also lost approximately 86% of its previously accumulated profits, continued losses are expected to increase cash-flow pressure across the industry and may drive a further significant reduction in sow capacity over the next 2 quarters. The scale of herd culling may be substantial, potentially lending support to prices next yearHog cycleand amplifying the rebound. With reference to the normal inventory level for breeding sows set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (3750 ten thousand head), current inventory data from the National Bureau of Statistics have confirmed our earlier assessment that breeding sows entered a phase of accelerated culling in 26Q3. We remain positive on 2027 yearHog cycleReversal (profitability basis).
According to the CLS Theme Database, among the related listed companies:
Shen Nong Group 2025 year, the company sold a total of 36.47 ten thousand piglets, with an average weight of 6 kilograms per head.
Juxing Agriculture & Animal Husbandry responds to consumers’ demand for improved pork quality through genetic breeding, nutritiontechnologyand other measures to improve pork quality, and uses a digital intelligence platform to connect quality management across the entire chain, from raw material procurement to product sales.