In the first three quarters of 2026, domestic pork carcass prices remained weak and near the bottom of the market. The price level was significantly lower than in the same period of 2024 and 2025, while the scope for price adjustments during the year also narrowed. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, temperatures will fall and the curing season will gradually get underway, bringing a recovery in end-user demand. However, the overall tone of ample supply is unlikely to change, so domestic pork carcass prices may see only a low-level rebound, with the quarterly average still falling quarter on quarter.
1. Domestic pork carcass prices remained near the bottom of the market in the first three quarters of 2026, and the price spread narrowed during the year
As shown in Figure 1, domestic pork carcass prices in the first three quarters of 2026 fell initially, then fluctuated and edged up, remaining overall at a multi-year low, with the price level on the low side. According to SunSirs, the average transaction price for pork carcasses with a backfat thickness of 2.5-3.5CM in the first three quarters of 2026 was 13.82 yuan/kg, down 25.62% from the same period in 2025 and down 36.25% from the same period in 2024. The high for the year was 17.24 yuan/kg on 1 month 19; the low was 11.38 yuan/kg on 4 month 13. The largest price spread during the year was 5.86 yuan/kg, narrowing by 24.19% compared with the largest spread in 2025 and by 38.96% compared with the largest spread in 2024.
2. Ample supply and weaker-than-expected demand kept the market generally weak in 2026
The main reasons domestic white-strip pork prices remained low in the first three quarters of 2026 were the oversupply resulting from the concentrated release of upstream production capacity and demand weakening year after year. On the supply side, Figure 2 shows that upstream breeding sow capacity continued to expand from 2024 to the first half of 2025; although the number of breeding sows in stock gradually declined in the second half of 2025, the decrease was limited, and levels remained high overall. Based on the growth cycle of hogs, 2026 was a period of concentrated release of hog production capacity, with an ample supply of market-weight hogs and smooth procurement by slaughtering companies. Although slaughtering companies also built up inventories when prices were low, frozen pork accounted for less than 10% of total pork output. White-strip pork supply still increased significantly during the year, leaving the market oversupplied overall.
On the demand side, in recent years, factors including changes in residents’ dietary structure, shifts in the main consumer demographic, and low prices for substitutes have caused actual pork demand to fall short of expectations. Meanwhile, high inventories of domestic and imported frozen products have, to some extent, put pressure on the fresh pork market with low-priced frozen products. Together with the gradually diminishing boost from peak-season demand, these factors caused pork consumption to fall short of expectations during the year, and white-strip pork generally moved more slowly.
3. In the fourth quarter of 2026, the average price may decline quarter on quarter due to ample supply
Domestic white-strip pork prices are expected to decline quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026. On the supply side, based on the growth cycle of hogs, the supply of domestically raised hogs at market weight in the fourth quarter of 2026 is estimated to decrease by approximately 1.4% quarter on quarter. However, as the peak season for large hogs approaches, producers are more inclined to hold hogs back and increase their weight. The average post-slaughter weight in the fourth quarter may increase by 1%-2%. Meanwhile, frozen-product inventories at slaughtering companies are currently high, and many are strictly controlling their proportion of carcass breakdown. The fresh-sales rate may increase slightly by 2-4 percentage points. Overall, white-strip pork supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. On the demand side, pork consumption is seasonal: as temperatures fall, demand for fresh products is expected to improve, boosted by the custom of “fattening up for autumn” and by the curing of meat and sausage-making. However, channels such as prepared-food processing and food service stocked up in advance in the second quarter, so fourth-quarter demand for frozen products may fall short of expectations. Meanwhile, there is a relatively high likelihood that inventories held by companies and ports will be released onto the market in a concentrated manner, with low-priced frozen products putting some pressure on fresh pork sales. Overall, pork demand is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, but the improvement may be less than expected.
Overall, both pork supply and demand are increasing, but the increase in supply is greater than the increase in demand. According to Zhuochuang Information, white-strip pork prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 may decline quarter on quarter. By month, white-strip pork prices are expected to edge down gradually in 10 of 2026, with the monthly average price possibly falling by 7%-9% quarter on quarter. In 11, prices may rebound from low levels with support from demand; the monthly average price may rise by 5%-8%, while the high is unlikely to break the “fifteen yuan” mark. In 12, the improvement in demand may weaken, while hogs are released onto the market in a concentrated manner. Prices may edge down again, with the month-on-month decline in the monthly average white-strip pork price possibly remaining within 3%.