The latest monitoring and early-warning data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that prices for live hogs, piglets, and pork are all falling faster. The market has now entered the Level One alert range for excessive declines. Farmers must immediately adjust their marketing pace and protect their cash-flow safety margin.

 

In the first three quarters, 21 listed hog producers marketed about 1.43 hundred million head, an increase of 552 ten thousand head year on year. The three largest producers accounted for nearly seven-tenths of the total. In 9 month, 14 companies reduced their marketed volumes month on month.

 

 

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Prices for live hogs, piglets, and pork are all falling faster!

 

Core data on the simultaneous decline in three prices, as released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

 

‌Live pig prices‌: The national average price of live pigs raised in three-way crossbreeding quickly fell to around ‌10 yuan/kg‌; in some major production areas in the north, prices have fallen below 9.8 yuan/kg. Compared with the interim peak before the National Day holiday, prices have dropped by more than 0.8 yuan/kg, and the average loss per head for the industry's farrow-to-finish operations has widened again to over 200 yuan.

 

‌Piglet prices‌: Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ 500 county-level markets show that piglet prices have plunged 30% year on year, to just 26.2 yuan per kilogram. Farmers’ willingness to restock is nearly at rock bottom, and the all-in cost of raising externally purchased piglets has exceeded the market price, leaving no room for profit.

 

‌Pork prices‌: The national ex-factory price of white-stripe pork has also declined, falling to around 16 yuan per kilogram. Retail pork prices at the consumer end have fallen 5%-8% month on month. After National Day, consumer purchasing slowed noticeably, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses has fallen below 30%.

 

Core reason for the widespread decline this round

 

‌Sharp post-holiday demand slump‌: Demand from banquets and household stockpiling during the National Day holiday fell away, and end-consumer pork consumption declined month on month by 15%-20%. Slaughterhouses sharply reduced their hog purchases, and downward price pressure quickly spread across the market.

 

‌Concentrated release of backlogged supply‌: Hogs whose marketings were postponed in 9 month because consumption fell short of expectations were all deferred to 10 month for concentrated release. In addition, the current average hog marketing weight remains high at over 128 kilograms. An oversupply of large hogs in the market directly limits the scope for a price rebound.

 

‌Mass sell-off by secondary-fattening operators‌: Secondary-fattening operators who had entered the market earlier to buy the dip were forced to sell off and exit en masse as their profit margins remained inverted, further amplifying short-term supply pressure and accelerating the decline in hog prices.

 

Key immediate steps for farmers

 

Stop holding back pigs in the hope of getting a better price. Sell in batches in line with market conditions and prices, prioritizing the sale of heavy pigs weighing over 130 kilograms to avoid greater losses the longer they are kept. Absolutely do not buy piglets to restock at rock-bottom prices. The current fully loaded cost of raising purchased piglets is far above 12 yuan per kilogram, leaving no realistic prospect of profit going forward. Optimize feed formulations and reduce the feed-to-meat ratio, bringing the farm's fully loaded cost below 11 yuan per kilogram. Minimizing losses is the core profit objective at this stage.

 

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has now initiated central frozen pork reserve purchases and storage, while also guiding local authorities to coordinate support for the market. Later, in the second half of 10 month, as southern China’s preserved-meat consumption gets underway, pork prices will see a seasonal recovery. However, the short-term trend of widespread declines is unlikely to reverse immediately, so farmers should not blindly hold out for higher prices and withhold sales.

 

The first three quarters saw more than 1.4 hundred million hogs shipped by 21 listed pork companies

 

According to incomplete statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, 21 listed pig companies collectively sold approximately 1.43 hundred million pigs, an increase of 552 ten thousand head compared with 1.37 hundred million head in the same period last year. Among them, Muyuan Foods, Wen's Foodstuff Group, and New Hope collectively sold 9591.95 ten thousand head, close to 1 hundred million head, accounting for nearly 67% of the total sales volume of the 21 companies—nearly seventy percent.

 

As in 8, Muyuan Foods' sales volume increased slightly, while Wen's Foodstuff Group and New Hope both saw significant year-on-year declines. New Hope's decline was particularly pronounced, falling by nearly 15% year on year, with sales down by nearly 200 ten thousand head.

 

Overall, most of the 21 listed pig farming companies maintained year-on-year growth, with only 5 companies recording a year-on-year decline in market hog sales, so total sales continued to rise. Apart from New Hope, Zhenghong Technology recorded the largest decline, extending its year-on-year downturn so far this year and selling approximately 1.5 ten thousand fewer hogs than last year. However, given its relatively small overall scale, its impact on the industry's total sales was limited.

 

In addition, in 9 alone, the 21 listed pig farming companies sold a combined 1564.92 ten thousand hogs. In year-on-year terms, more companies still recorded growth than declines: 13 and 8, respectively. However, month on month, companies reducing sales clearly predominated, with a total of 14 choosing to scale back sales. This was partly related to their proactively controlling the pace after increasing sales in 8, and partly to the sharp drop in hog prices in the latter part of 8.

 

At the corporate level, Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope remained the top three in slaughter volume, while Zhengbang Technology also contributed nearly 85 ten thousand head. Companies with relatively large year-on-year increases included Zhenghong Technology, Aonong Biotechnology, and Kemen Foods; slaughter volume in 9 increased year on year by 121.47%, 54.20%, and 54.63%, respectively.