Recently, listed companies engaged in hog farming successively released their sales data for the first three quarters. The data indicate that, due to low selling prices throughout the year, the companies concerned continue to face considerable operating pressure.
The overall market remains volatile and somewhat weak
On the evening of 10 12, Luo Niu Shan announced that it sold 8.23 ten thousand hogs in 9, an increase of 14.75% month on month and 31% year on year. Sales revenue was 9190.01 ten thousand yuan, down 1.99% month on month and 22.28% year on year.
That evening, data from Da Bei Nong also showed that in month 9, the company sold 25.91 ten thousand commercial fattening pigs, generating sales revenue of 3.54 hundred million yuan. Sales volume changed by -13.23% month over month and -12.88% year over year; sales revenue changed by -11.72% month over month and -28.34% year over year. The average selling price was 10.72 yuan/kg, compared with 10.95 yuan/kg in the previous month.
Previously, an announcement by Muyuan Foods showed that in month 9, the company sold 642.3 ten thousand commercial pigs, a year-over-year change of 15.24%; the average selling price of commercial pigs was 10.36 yuan/kg, a year-over-year change of -19.57%; and sales revenue from commercial pigs was 85.2 hundred million yuan, a year-over-year change of -6.01%.
Wens Foodstuff Group sold 298.83 ten thousand head of meat pigs (including live pigs and fresh products), an increase of 0.5% month on month and a decrease of 10.13% year on year. Revenue from meat pig sales was 40.56 hundred million yuan, an increase of 1% month on month and a decrease of 18.47% year on year. The average selling price of live pigs was 10.75 yuan/kg, down 1.01% month on month and down 18.44% year on year.
New Hope sold 113.97 ten thousand head of commercial pigs, a decrease of 5.51% month on month and an increase of 8.94% year on year. Revenue from commercial pig sales was 13.82 hundred million yuan, a decrease of 8.2% month on month and a decrease of 13.97% year on year. The average selling price was 10.34 yuan/kg, down 1.15% month on month and down 19.78% year on year.
Tianbang Food sold 50.34 ten thousand commercial pigs in 9 month (including 9.22 ten thousand piglets), with sales revenue of 4.62 hundred million yuan and an average sales price of 9.97 yuan/kg (the average price of commercial finishing pigs was 10.03 yuan/kg). The month-on-month changes were -19.13%, -6.22%, and -3.52%, respectively.
Zhenghong Technology sold 0.95 ten thousand live pigs in 9 month (including 0.45 ten thousand commercial pigs and 0.5 ten thousand piglets). Sales volume decreased 39.65% month on month and increased 16.85% year on year. Sales revenue was 738.85 ten thousand yuan, down 18.99% month on month and 29.76% year on year.
According to Zhuochuang Information, domestic live pig prices generally fluctuated downward in 9 month, with the monthly average price falling month on month. According to Zhuochuang Information monitoring, the national average transaction price of live pigs of the Duroc × Landrace × Yorkshire breed was 10.74 yuan/kg this month, down 0.91% month on month and down 17.41% year on year. During the month, the most-traded live pig futures contract 2611 first rose and then fell. Its closing price on day 28 was 10295 yuan/ton, with a basis of -255 yuan/ton.
According to Mysteel data, the national average price of slaughtered live pigs in month 9 was 10.67 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.99%. The monthly average price continued to decline, with the market overall showing a volatile and weak trend.
Consumption will improve quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter
Persistently weak hog prices and mounting operating pressures are not only directly affecting the revenue and profits of pig-farming companies, but also having a considerable impact on the capacity structure and pace of development of the entire industry.
Wang Hongyan, a hog industry analyst at Shanghai Steelhome, said that in the first half of this year, hog prices were relatively stable, and most pig-farming companies maintained profits or small profits. As prices fluctuated downward in the second half of the year, the industry as a whole moved close to the break-even point. Companies with better cost controls were still able to stay afloat, while those with higher costs had begun to incur losses.
Zhu Danpeng, vice president of the Guangdong Food Safety Promotion Association, said that in 2026, prices in China’s live hog market continued to weaken, while operating pressures on livestock producers increased. Against this backdrop, this could help accelerate the reduction of production capacity in the industry. On the supply side, the release of capacity from breeding sows built up in the earlier period, combined with weak off-season consumption, has left live hog supply relatively high. The market’s oversupply situation has not been fundamentally reversed.
Looking at the year as a whole, although the fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption season and the market’s supply-demand balance is expected to improve temporarily, the supply pressure accumulated by the industry over the long term has not yet been fully alleviated, adding uncertainty for the future.
“In the fourth quarter, seasonal demand, including demand for cured meat and stocking up for New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, will provide support, and consumption is expected to improve month on month. However, hog supply remains relatively ample, slaughter weights are high, and supply pressure has not yet been fully released. Although the peak season can provide a temporary boost, it will be difficult to reverse the imbalance of strong supply and weak demand,” said Wang Hongyan.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Zou Yingji analyzed that, on the supply side, spring piglet placements remain relatively high, and the number of hogs available for sale by farmers is ample. Hog supply in 10 may increase month on month. On the demand side, 10 is a transitional period for demand, with few supporting factors, and end-user demand may decline month on month. After hog prices fell to a relatively low level in the latter part of the month, enthusiasm for restocking for secondary fattening may rise in some regions. Restocking demand may increase in the short term, temporarily boosting the market when restocking takes place.
Hog prices are expected to fluctuate downward in 10. However, demand in the hog market may gradually increase in 11. As demand for larger hogs improves and prices rise, prices for standard-weight hogs may be supported. In addition, farmers may hold back hogs to increase their weight, waiting to sell them around the winter solstice in 12. As a result, supply may tighten temporarily in 11, leaving room for hog prices to rise. (Compiled from Securities Daily, Securities Times, online sources, and others.)