In France, the end-of-season stock en organic soft wheat is melting away like snow in the sun this year, marked by persistent drought and repeated heatwaves that have reduced production potential. The end-of-season stock of organic soft wheat is expected to stand at 64 102 t in 2026-2027, compared with 85 002 t a year earlier, representing a decrease of 25 %, according to the report published by FranceAgriMer on 9 October.
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A shortage of feed soft wheat
This contraction in end-of-season stocks is primarily explained by the decline in collection French. Estimated at 270 000 t, it would decrease by 10 % compared with the previous campaign, according to the report prepared as of September 1st, 2026. Yet the initial collection figures did not indicate such a decline.collection did not indicate such a decline. At the end of August 2026, the volumes Cumulative totals reached 182 322 t, a level almost identical to that recorded one year earlier at the same date (182 640 t). Operators were therefore still expecting stable collection volumes before forecasts were revised downward.
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To make up for the lower collection, imports of organic soft wheat are expected to rise by 35% to 35 000 t. They are expected to consist mainly of organic feed wheat to meet the demand of the animal feed manufacturers. Incorporations in animal feed were indeed increased by 23%, to 93 000 t, to compensate for the poor French organic corn harvest.
Conversely, the availability of organic milling wheat are abundant. The carryover stock of 85 002 t consists mainly of bread-making wheat, and the 2026 harvest also shows excellent technological characteristics.
A historically high bread-making score for organic soft wheat
The French organic soft wheat harvest stands out for its particularly high quality.
The protein content of French organic soft wheat stands at an average of 11,1% this year upon arrival at collection silos, a figure in line with the five-year average, according to the survey of collectors conducted by Arvalis. It is up by 0,3 point compared with the 2025 harvest. Approximately 42% of the collected wheat has a protein content above 11%.
The specific weights (PS) are high, averaging 79,1 kg/hl nationally, up by + 0,7 point versus 2025, or even + 2,2 points versus the five-year average. Nearly 96% of the collection has a PS above 76 kg/hl.
The Hagberg falling time are very high. Nearly 100% of the harvest have an index above 220 seconds, compared with 93% in 2025.
With a baking strength historically high (at 199 nationally on average, + 25 points versus 2025), the baking score set records. At 262/300 on the national average, it is higher by 9 points than that of 2025 and by 6 points than the five-year average. Some 88% of the harvest has a baking score above 250/300.
Potential downgrading of milling-quality soft wheat to feed quality
The French market therefore appears relatively well supplied with milling wheat but in deficit in feed wheat. In this context, some operators believe it would be relevant to downgrade the milling wheats to the outlet for the most modest qualities for feed. Such an approach would help limit imports imports of low-priced feed wheat, which could drive French prices down and weaken the domestic sector, an operator says.
For now, animal feed manufacturers are looking for organic feed wheat from mainland France. Import prices for deliveries to France from northern Germany or the Benelux countries are said to be far too high because of particularly elevated logistics costs at the moment, according to an expert in the field.
If imports were needed due to a shortage of French organic feed wheat, it would be imported from Poland or Eastern European countries at a delivered-France price of around 400 €/t, which is well above the ex-France price, the specialist continues.
A narrowing price gap between organic milling wheat and organic feed wheat
Since the beginning of the sales campaign, price medium for organic feed wheat did in fact rise by 30 €/t to reach 360 €/t on 14 October 2026, driven by weak supply. The average price of the organic milling wheat followed this upward trend, but to a lesser extent given its abundance: it rose by only 10 €/t to 450 €/t over the same period.
The narrowing of the price gap between the two categories of organic soft wheat could therefore encourage some sellers to market lower-quality milling wheat for animal feed.
Prices for milling wheat are weakened by stagnant consumption
However, the outlook remains fragile for organic milling wheat. French flour milling use is estimated at 189 000 t in 2026-2027, an unchanged volume despite abundant supply. The baking sector organic is indeed experiencing a decline in consumption by volume, particularly in connection with rising production costs.
They are not the exports (10 000 t) which will be able to support prices on the French cash market, with the latter expected to decline by 17 % from one season to the next.
In this context, downgrading some milling wheat to the feed market could help rebalance the French market and limit pressure on prices.
